Vol4Life

1 minute ago, Wurbus said:

Where do you find these at?

In MRX’s afternoon disco

From MRX’s discussion (which is really good by the way), it sounds like they are going with 3-5” in the valley and 4-6” on the plateau.

5 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

HRRR just increased totals in the valley again. This is a weird feeling of having totals increasing almost every model run leading up to a storm rather than the other way around.

Don’t have access right now.  How much did it go up?

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I think MRX goes 4-8” in the valley


.

Although justified, I think they will still play conservative.  I could see 3-6 “with locally heavier amounts”

MRX with the kiss of death...just updated my forecast (Knox).  Now says 2-4 tonight with 1-2 more tomorrow!

8 minutes ago, Runman292 said:

 

I love that they are patting themselves on the back for saying highest totals on plateau and mountains.  That’s like getting credit on the ACT for getting your name right! Lol!

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The good thing is that cold air is in play.  It makes sense for a storm to fire on this boundary.  

What could go wrong?  The wave could fire too far to the east and the wave slip by too far to the east to do us any good.  The eastern trend has me a bit wary.  But...digging back through the Spring/Summer thread....modeling has had this storm for a week or more.  

At some point, do you think we’ll see the NW trend come into play?  

5 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Here ya go.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Thank you!

Hate to be “that” guy, but does anyone have the accumulation map for 12Z GFS?  I’m having a hard time getting Tropical Tidbits to load

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z Euro 500 configuration is way different.  LOL.  On to the next suite...consensus denied.

In the past, this would have really concerned me, but the Euro just isn’t what it used to be.  GFS has been doing a much better job sniffing out storms in the long range, trends in the short range, etc

2 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

We need to do these boundaries in spring. When's the next chance of severe weather? Thursday sweet (adopted) home Alabama! 

Oh I forgot in spring the boundary hangs up south and we remain stable. In winter it surges north and we remain rain. This is the Way.

At least you gave up on winter on 1/31...lol!

27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z GFS...and there it is.

Great look for the Tri-Cities...warm nose issues for the Valley from Morristown south.  Really would like to get a good snow for all of East TN.  Been so close this year...

Looks like to me that the CMC moved back to the NW.  One to two more jogs like that and Plateau East is in the game

Just now, TellicoWx said:

GEFS jumped the energy as well...another jump like that and the GFS will look more like the short range models, and bring alot more into the game.

Noticed the GFS trend over the past 3 runs is the westward expansion of the precip.  It’s literally moved back to the west about 200 miles.   
 

What do you mean by jumping the energy?  Trying to learn..

Piggybacking on Jeff’s comment above, I counted around 22 ensemble members (nearly half) with at least 2-3”+ in East TN.  This isn’t over yet...

Not throwing in the towel yet.  Past years I would.  Going to hold off until another set of model runs

15 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Feel like this is a Carolina special. We may get enough ticks to get E TN in some light snow but I think we are locking in here. 
 

I do think it'll be easier to get more phasing than less. So NW ticks probably will be more likely to happen than suppression. IF any trends occur. This one just feels like a Carolina Crusher
 

 

Typically I would agree, but with the way modeling has been all over the place, I still believe East TN is very much in the game.  We’ve seen 150-200 mile jumps within 48 hours.  It will be interesting to watch.

The afternoon discussion from MRX really downplays this weekend’s system.  Not sure how you can just totally ignore the Euro, EPS, etc.  I would think that they would at least say they need to keep their eye on it.

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

They are Volquest buddies


.

Love Volquest!

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Good friend of mine in Franklin has 7-8”. Another friend in Mt Juliet has around 4”.


.

You have more friends than Tom from MySpace!  Lol 

5 minutes ago, bearman said:

WEST Knox is starting up again and radar is enhancing to our east and south.

I’m out in West Knox too.  Are you seeing snow or drizzle right now?  Currently drizzling at my house.

Just now, VOLtage said:

They should probably upgrade the valley, or at least parts of the valley, to WSW status.

No please don’t.  If they do that, the sun will immediately come out!

1 minute ago, dwagner88 said:

No expansion of the WWA with the afternoon update. The higher elevations of Hamilton now have warning criteria snow forecasted and zero winter products out.

I don’t think they’ve finished the afternoon update yet

Just now, McMinnWx said:

18Z HRRR increased totals for Athens and other areas in the valley. 

what does it show for Knox County?  Still don’t understand why so much less is showing for Knox

Check out WxSouth on FB. He posted about 45 min ago the track of the upper level low.  Looks pretty good to me