tristateweatherFB

No one posted the good old jma jma jma 

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

February is supposed to be good according to many winter outlooks. We need the MJO to keep chugging along.

Did you see how phase 6 is in February?

Should I even mention ratios? Haha

No clue what ppl talking about but the low is further nw.   This should be warmer. And then have to see second piece of energy 

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Winter storm watch for 5 to 8” for OBX area excluding NYC and LI.

Nw of 287

It really makes me laugh with these posts. Between winter cancel. No opportunities coming. Then wow we going to get slammed.  To oh no it’s shifting nw.   Any of us can look at a model and see what it shows.  Imagine if all models were correct a week out or 3 days out etc. What would be the point of the challenge to forecast this?  Personally I kept saying for a couple of days snow nyc on north.  Then stick with it until the energy comes onto the mainland and models adjust. Breathe ppl it’s going to be a wild ride this winter.  Major opportunities with cold to work with coming up.   

1 hour ago, NittanyWx said:

This is very meta for me.

 

I started as a teenager posting on Evans forum, went to Tristate and @jm1220 who I know personally and at Penn St, Adam and Tech and Mets and all those guys.

 

Would have meteorologists chime in too...Rich Hoffman, Mike Ekster, Goodman, Craig Allen etc etc...those guys were invaluable to my understanding and building a foundation of knowledge.

 

Big part of the reason I'm doing this professionally now is because of the online community then.  Was constructive, learned a ton.  I wish folks talked over each other less, it's much more combative now than it used to be.  There would be arguments for sure, there would be weenies calling weenies a weenie.  But the pros would kind of calm the masses and steer the discussion. 

What was your user name?  I am Adam from tsw. Still doing this all these years. 

12 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Hahaha I don’t know if I’d go that far.  That place wasn’t exactly devoid of bickering.  There was someone named something like “hani345” who would occasionally (and I think inadvertently) ignite flame wars by saying things like “Bill I’m scared the wind is going to blow my house down.”

But I do miss that board as well.  I prob wouldn’t have been on TriState, Eastern, or here were it not for that community.

I remember hani.  He would say only bill answer.  
then we developed tristate forums.  Then fb which sandy blew us up.  380k ppl make things interesting.  
As I said on our patreon platform. Pms. Texts etc etc watch that epo!  I don’t care if we have a trof over the east.  If we have a negative nao this early.  Means nothing if there is no cold air source.  Remember normal temps are in the 40s.  We need colder than normal weather.  Epo being positive means we not in a good position to cash in.  Wait until January.  Breathe everyone things will get there. I know just like in real life people are impatient. They want results! Now!  Doesnt work that way 

No one? Anyone?   The nam doing what the nam does

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Activity stays south on the hrrr so don't cry 

Ummmm

10 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

why you keep posting this gfs garbage you know these temps will never happen.

Bingo!  He posts gfs crap All the time w epic fails.  

13 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

I think we're gonna get NAM'd again 

What the heck do you see. Well east 

6 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Some big hits in there. 

8 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

 We need this hrrr to show it this evening.  Hrrr range is too early.  
I been talking behind the scenes about how I don’t lie the look of Sref and nam.  The nam usually does well in this set up.  Need it the nam to come to the south.  Since the Sref got worse for snow lovers I would expect to see the nam to be the same or worse in the next few minutes.  
 

 

Nam looking better which to me is a great great sign for nyc and li ppl

 We need this hrrr to show it this evening.  Hrrr range is too early.  
I been talking behind the scenes about how I don’t lie the look of Sref and nam.  The nam usually does well in this set up.  Need it the nam to come to the south.  Since the Sref got worse for snow lovers I would expect to see the nam to be the same or worse in the next few minutes.  
 

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Good luck getting that to work out without much cold air in place. The other models have rain, which makes more sense considering the pattern and what has been going on. 12z Euro also has another big rainstorm wednesday next week. This pattern is extremely ugly with rainstorm after rainstorm likely. 

If you get the preceeding storm to become the 50/50 that supplies the cold Air we will be in business

I lurk here and see some of the posts.  It’s mid January.  Yes the winter has stunk so far but we have two more months to cash in.  

21 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

This is the first Near Normal 7-Day Period on the EURO Weeklies:         They never go BN  with any vigor anyway.

Now go back to nov 30th. What did the weeklies show for Christmas.  I am sorry but no disrespect. We can all see what the models show but ppl learn from the past.  They never going to be right 10 plus days in advance. When a model hints at something it usually is more extreme (either warmth or cold) than what’s it’s showing.   Happy new years 

I am hearing about a flash freeze.  Yes spots will ice up but remember with the wind it will dry out pretty quickly which will help.   Contractors be ready but I don’t expect an ice rink out there.  Just watch the puddles freezing up

I don’t see any reports of qpf.  Was interested too see

42 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

would you rather have 40 inches of rain in Tampa or a 8-12 foot storm surge into Tampa Bay?

Exactly!  My main theme on my weather page this am is pick your poison. 
surge flooding or fresh water flooding from 30 inches of rain. 

Finally cashing in on some much needed rainfall in westchester.  Seemed like for weeks rain to the north. South. West. East of Us but seems like Mother Nature making up for lost time

26 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

fake news! im in yonkers and everything is wet.

I am on Yonkers Scarsdale border n my car is iced over. Salt crews out there

1 minute ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Light snow here at the moment, nearly 8" (hard to get an accurate measurement due to the strong wind) OTG thus far. 10F as of 10AM.

That is in north white plains?

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Help me out what is the nmb ?

One group of Sref members.