Jump to content

Joshfsu123

Members
  • Posts

    585
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Joshfsu123

  1. 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

    IMO the euro would have been a very good run...except the DC area kind of got stuck in between bands.  A really nice initial wave went to the south in the early morning and then the second wave went just to the north.  It's possible it goes down that way...or that initial wave holds together more and you don't see that dead zone in between with 1-2" less.  I don't trust any of the guidance to nail that kind of detail even at 24 hours.  

    Agreed. What was noticeable is it starts earlier (between 3am/4am now) and still goes till about 11am before switch over. It also gets DC into better rates a little earlier than the 0z run. Like someone else said, improvement from 0z but not as good as 06z. It'll come down to banding features which global models just won't pick up on.

  2. ? - does the Euro tend to still run a bit dry compared to other models? Or was that fixed in the latest update. Thanks. 

    From what I’ve seen, nothing really has changed. The NAM is jumping a bit but all the models are in terms of where the best banding of snow will set up. North of DC is always the best bet but DC is still likely to get a solid storm... 2-5 inches and some sleet/freezing rain seems like a good forecast right now. But still 48 hours away...  things can still shift for the good or the bad. 

     

  3. As some have mentioned, the band(s) of stronger rates of snow won’t be fully known until gametime... so not surprised the models, like the GFS, continue to move around a bit and place heavier areas of snow at different places. That’s why they are used as guidance, but not gospel. GFS still produced good snows for Wednesday. 

  4. 17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

    I have no bar. I don't see the point. Sure I would like to see 3-4", but if it ends up another 1/2" that gets washed away by a deluge, better than nothing. This winter is clearly in dud territory for my location, so I am beyond being picky.

    Same truthfully. I'm moving to Florida in early March, so this will likely be my final snow system/storm in DC ... as long as it snows, could care less how much. Gonna miss it. 

  5. My bar for this storm is 3 inches. I know yesterday the models were producing huge numbers but that was a perfect set-up... this is a tough forecast but what it does have is the early thump. But hoping to see the GFS get back on board with the other models. ICON improved at 06z slightly, from 00z, and the EURO/UKMet/FV3 still looks solid. Gonna be a few more days before we know truly how strong the CAD will be. As @stormtracker said yesterday, which has been forgotten by many, yesterday was probably the high bar for many of the models, in terms of snow output.

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...