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downeastnc

Coastal Snow SC/NC?

63 posts in this topic

[quote name='WeatherNC' timestamp='1330833290' post='1426729']
Yeah, I agree, 52/50 atm, hoping to be in the upper 30's around sun up but even that seems like a stretch at this point. [b]Keep in mind there is a lot of variability in the algorithms used to generate these sn maps. While the 0z NAM sn map on Allan's site hardly showed anything, the ones on Earl Barker's page do. This is from the 0z NAM using the Kuchera algorithm[/b]


[/quote]
Good point... it's easy to forget about how the snow maps are generated and how much hope to put on snow maps...soundings and liquid precip is the way to go. Thanks for keeping us folks too lazy to track this storm informed...the severe event and previous snowstorm wiped me out.

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Ya good points. This might be a look out your window and see what it is doing. There is a lot of heavy rain coming in and that might generate enough cooling to change some to snow. Also just a side note, all this rain is great for the people down east with the drought. Great to see some nice steady rains moving in.

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Well its hard to think the models suggesting snow for us were right given the current temp/dp however just west of Raleigh DP are in the 20's if that air works in then who knows.....My earlier hope for this event are waning and I guess I will hope to see good news when I wake up.

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[quote name='downeastnc' timestamp='1330841029' post='1426808']
Well its hard to think the models suggesting snow for us were right given the current temp/dp however just west of Raleigh DP are in the 20's if that air works in then who knows.....My earlier hope for this event are waning and I guess I will hope to see good news when I wake up.
[/quote]

dp still around 50 here, some mid 40's coming in from the south, Kinston has 46, Kenansville same, so likely going to be driven by rates in the morning, if we do in fact mix or changeover for a period. 3km HRRR consistent every run painting an inch or so through here. Doubt see how the nam and GFS AF that far out in left field with the SN maps. Either the models SN products are really off, or we do in fact see some tokens out of this, who knows. Not much invested in this one, kind of a novelty tracking over the last 48hrs. 0z EC has us below 0 at 850 by 7am, around 3-4 tenths fall thereafter. Should be done by noon. Need the rain, seeding some grass yesterday in anticipation of it. Be nice to see a surprise with ptype, been awhile since we have had one, but they do happen from time to time around here. Even last year when mhx got 6 or 7, the models did not have them changing over till late afternoon, and it was marginal, yet it started around mid day and temps did not make it out of the upper 20's for them, we were hanging out eating mexican while the coast got crushed. Stayed up too late, need sleep, later

Edit: airport just picked up a n wind, dp down 9 degrees in the past 45 minutes
[IMG]http://img.tapatalk.com/4b6e341a-11a2-237e.jpg[/IMG]

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Well the NAM paints no snow but the GFS still has a big swath of snow along the coastal areas. I think the caost maybe hard pressed to see any flakes at this point. Temps are still warm with temps in the mid 40s. Some may get lucky as the moisture pulls away up in NE NC but the soundings still look very warm and i don't think the cooling in the upper layers is deep enough to transfer to the surface.

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MHX saying we might have some snow in the area around daybreak from the clipper hopefully it pans out I would like to see more than a handfull of flakes for this winter...


[b]Monday: [/b]A slight chance of rain and snow before 10am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Southeast wind 6 to 16 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected

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[quote name='MillzPirate' timestamp='1330827941' post='1426644']
I'm here. Living in DC now. Watching from afar and rooting for you guys
[/quote]

That's quite a switch - from North Carolina to Georgetown, D.C.

Most my family lived in that extreme northwest corridor; from just off Foxhall Road in Wesley Heights to Rockwood Parkway in Spring Valley; and just off Massachusetts Avenue from the Naval Observatory to Sumner on the Maryland side.

That whole area is beautiful and Georgetown is great for walking, shopping and people-watching. Beautiful too after a solid snowfall when everyone is out and about on foot.

Hope you enjoy it up there!

Tim in ILM
:pimp:

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