HurricaneHive (create /track /share your forecasts) - looking for beta testers and feedback

[hooralph]

(Hope the mods don’t mind me sharing this)

I’m sharing - and looking for feedback on - a project I’ve been working on this summer. Its origins were an idea I’ve had for nearly 20 years - to create a platform where accurate information is elevated and showcased and helps improve the medium-range forecast information available to the general public. My idea was always to start with hurricanes, since forecasts are “easier” to measure for accuracy.

https://hurricanehive.com/

 

Tldr; 

For anyone who wants to create medium-range forecasts: I built tools to create hurricane forecasts and then get accuracy assessments (alongside NHC and some computer models (hopefully more soon).

 

For the general pubic (think of your friends and family): I also have put work into synthesizing the information into clear, digestible, hype-free forecast products. I think there is a serious information gap between the information available that can help people understand the medium-range risks and what they consume - increasingly through social media or weather apps that are very good at hourly / short-term forecasts. (yes, I am using AI - more on that below).

I had time this summer and set out building it, which has been fun. If I get traction, I am want to extend this to a year-round product/service. Of course, I picked the tropical season of 2025, which has been devoid of long-track landfall threats…

But I would love feedback - if you want to sign up and try the forecasting tools, you have options to keep them to yourselves or make them available for the public. I have the jobs to calculate accuracy in place, and will build out the front-end in the coming week or so. Initially I thought about leaning into a “leader board” approach, but don’t want that to scare people away from participating. I’d l love your ideas. And hopefully there will be more to track...

For all you weather geeks, whether you want to forecast or not.. the entire storm archive back to 1851 is here, along with tools to search storms and create collections (if you register). I can also generate analog storms.

How the forecasting works:

•  when you register you can indicate you want to forecast (and whether you want to share them or not)
• Under /forecast - you can create a new forecast for each storm within 4 hours of the latest storm position update (so after 11 AM ET you have until 3). 
• You can enter forecast points for any of the standard plots up to 120 hours and add an optional landfall point.

Thanks for looking/listening and feedback.

More (from my FAQ):

 

 

Quote

 

What the heck is HurricaneHive?

HurricaneHive uses the best government data available, community input and AI to provide the public with clear, accurate, hype-free information about the risks from developing tropical storms and other extreme weather events to their lives, businesses and property.

Why can't I just rely on my weather apps or the news?

Consumer weather apps do a great job of telling you what the weather will be like today and tomorrow. With the right settings, you'll be alerted to any imminent threat. You should go check those settings now. What they do not provide is a clear assessment of the risks of significant or even just disruptive events taking shape 3-7 days out. Broadcast meteorologists can do a great job at this, but linear TV is dying! And social media is a hype-driven cesspool of clickbait and misinformation.

Can I rely on HurricaneHive for emergency guidance?

Absolutely not! Our primary focus is on the medium range, outside of normal watch and warning windows that only extend 72 hours. HurricaneHive will continue to provide guidance inside of 72 hours, but you should always rely on official guidance from the National Weather Service and local emergency management. The mission is to help users better prepare for the weather risks and possible outcomes in the medium range (3-7 days).

So where does HurricaneHive information come from?

Primarily the incredibly talented employees at NOAA (the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service offices).

And… the site was built to also give independent forecasters a platform to create and share their own forecasts, and the tools to continuously improve through objective accuracy assessments.

So is that the "Hive?"

Yes! We believe that sourcing additional analysis and elevating the most accurate forecasts can help provide the most insightful and comprehensive outlooks for users who want a better understanding of what could happen as well as what is most likely to happen. We want to support the active community of independent forecasters and hobbyists with tools to craft and share their forecasts outside of the noise and distortion of social media algorithms.

So how do you do this?

HurricaneHive is continuously ingesting public domain NOAA data and forecasts, along with select computer model forecasts (hopefully more soon). As members of our forecast community contribute, we'll share their forecasts and synthesize the body of information to provide users with a better understanding of what could happen over the next week or so.

You said "synthesize." Does that mean…?

Yes, HurricaneHive uses AI to provide crisp text summaries and analysis that highlight risks to specific geographical locations. Our current partner is Anthropic (Claude). Caveats apply: it can sometimes make errors, but will always be presented alongside official forecasts as a supplement. Any community content incorporated in generative AI products will be cited, with links to the original.

So is this site useful only if I am interested in tropical activity?

No! Your personalized My Forecast section is assessing all local threats, even snow as winter approaches! We launched as HurricaneHive because of the attention tropical threats command throughout the summer and fall. But if we get traction here, the vision is to provide year-round service.

Will it remain free forever?

Not if we get traction and grow! We'd rather charge a nominal subscription than participate in the surveillance ad tracking economy and have a terrible user experience.

How can I participate or provide feedback?