Severe weather for 03/02-03/4

[Tallis Rockwell]

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An upper trough should impact the western CONUS this upcoming
   weekend, eventually closing off over parts of the Southwest and
   adjacent northern Mexico around Day 5/Sunday. Medium-range guidance
   is in reasonably good agreement that this upper trough/low will
   eject east-northeastward across the Plains early next week. However,
   there are still differences regarding the degree of low-level
   moisture return and resultant instability that will develop ahead of
   this feature over the Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Some severe
   threat may exist from late Day 6/Monday into Day 7/Tuesday, mainly
   across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This
   threat could continue into parts of the Southeast on Day
   8/Wednesday. Inclusion of 15% severe probabilities in this extended
   time frame appears imprudent given the differences in both how and
   when the upper trough/low ejects over the Plains (positive versus
   negative tilt), and uncertainty regarding the low-level moisture
   return across these regions.