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NOAA/NHC Terminology

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Sorry if this should be in the 101 forum..., but I guessed this one would be more appropriate...

Anyway... The NOAA NHC Tropical Weather Outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

It gives an estimated probability for a "Tropical Disturbance" to develop into a "Cyclone" over the next few days. For example, in the current TWO, the probability of Disturbance #1 becoming a cyclone is 30% over the next 48hrs, and 40% over the next 5 days. This is the one currently between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

Disturbance 1 is elsewhere called Invest 98

I have always figured that the % probability refers to the probability of the tropical disturbance becoming a tropical depression (or greater) - is that correct? The lowest level cyclone is a depression, according to most definitions, so this makes the most sense

However, I was trying to confirm this, and looked at the product description page for the Tropical Weather Outlook, but I don't see anything more specific for this development % figure.

the description says:

"The Tropical Weather Outlook discusses significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days, including a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours, and during the entire 5-day forecast period. The 48 h and 5-day probabilities of formation for each disturbance are given to the nearest 10% and expressed in terms of one of the following categories: low probability of development (0-30%), medium probability (40-60%), and high probability of development (70-100%)."

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcprod.shtml#TWO

 

 

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