When will the NYC area get their first severe weather event?

[Thunderdude]

Since last few years the NYC area had a few good severe weather events and a few tornadoes has hit the area and I wonder how when the first one includes just significant good thunderstorm outbreak not including the thundersleet event that happen on March 23rd. My vote is around May 15th and that is when the waters warm up a bit and that is when averagely the first outbreak occurs in our area in that time except LI does still get screwed until later on in June.