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Showing results for tags 'welcome to severe season!!!'.
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We are just over a week away from the month of May. The snow shovels and snow blowers are put away, trees are budding and blossoming, flowers are growing, and ACs are being installed. We are entering a season of change and pretty soon we'll all be celebrating the three H's. May also begins the increasing risk for thunderstorms as we introduce greater theta-e air into the region with cold fronts making their way through at times. Looking ahead to the first week of May, it looks like April closes on an unseasonably warm note with strong ridging at 500mb coupled with a cold front approaching at the surface helping to aid in unseasonably warm llvl air with a strong southwesterly flow. While there are subtle hints at some weak troughing across the Northeast to begin the first week of May, independent on any small-scale phenomena, we should begin the month above-average with respect to climo with potential for some over the top warmth given the above-average height anomalies extending well into central Canada.
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At the start of this thread, May is only 6-days away which means the start of severe weather season is right around the corner!!! April has proven to be a rather typical spring month here in New England with some rather warm days, some rather chilly days, days with rain, and even some snow. As we head towards the month of May, there are some conflicting signals within the long-range guidance. If one just looks at an averaged 500mb pattern you can draw conclusions, but at the end of the day those conclusions will probably not be accurate. The conflicting signals likely correlate to the fact that the pattern across North America will continue to remain volatile and perhaps dominated by a series of ridges/troughs propagating through the country. One of the biggest factors may be how the pattern is configured around the Arctic (most notable the NAO/AO). Typically, these indices start having less influence on the pattern as you move through spring, but they can certainly shape the pattern and play big factors through May. And unfortunately, there are conflicting signals on the evolution of these indices moving through May. Let's just hope that whatever happens, we can get into some patterns which usher in big heat, high humidity, EML's, and lots of convection!!
