thekidcurtis

From some of the pics and videos showing vehicles thrown I’d say this will likely end up as an EF-3 based on that alone. Some terrible pics and videos emerging this morning. Really confirming radar imagery from last night

Confirmed EF-3 by NWS. Crazy.


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Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts rather than committing to a specific amount on a map.  I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.  
 

Just like a model, you can’t discredit 39 years of knowledge as much as people want to. His conservative approach often wins out.


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Okay, so where is the info that shows they could be wrong? What is the other info that RAH is basing their forecast on right now? What other data are they using besides the fact storms as big as the models are showing are rare here?

Not to take away from ANYONE on the boards because these guys are absolute wizards when it comes to this stuff...

...but it’s relativity easy for someone to say on a amateur weather forum ‘crush job on the 0z’ and turn around and say ‘zilch on the 6z.’ Zero repercussion.

“But the models have been consistent.” Yes. Clown maps have indeed shown paste jobs for a while, but a forecast is more than just a clown map, otherwise on-air personalities would be extinct in the field, one could just go look for themselves. Professionals in this field live and breath the metrics beyond just the maps we see. You and I both know Fishel wants no more than to see feet of snow, but 39.5yrs of logic tells him to say no until certainty.

Let’s take what we see and say “we’re right” and not bash the ones who do this for a living “you’re wrong.”


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Have a friend in Jacksonville. They have a friend looking some road conditions, where can those details be found, or anyone that can give me some specifics?


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FV3 trying to throw a curve-ball, pun intended.


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Shift in NHC cone.

 

And a tick south of 0z

Tick north rather. Ends up about 75 Miles NE OF 0z at landfall.

 

 

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