The_Doctor

What's the point of having a 60% hatched wind category if you're never going to use it? How do you only issue a Moderate risk at 20z when 20 minutes later you drop a PDS severe watch with double 95s for wind probs? Is the SPC just afraid of marking an event as "High" risk because that's some sacred territory that 8/10/20, 12/15/21, and now today somehow don't belong in (despite easily verifying the probability requirement)? IDK why this bothers me because it doesn't really matter, but jeez just make 60% hatch wind be Moderate already if that's actually the case.

18z GFS casually delivers the greatest snowstorm in SE Nebraska history at day 8-9. Including 2 ft in 6 hours on the clown Kuchera maps (hr 222), with 3.5+ ft totals.

Don't see that color on Radarscope too often...

Lol at that backward extension of the watch to accommodate the DBQ storm

29 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Hope you are as inaccurate as your last call of 0.1 - 0.3".  Nice factor of 10 in there you missed with 1.5" at ORD.  Maybe downtown was less I don't know.

13" rain incoming at ord

5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That new line rolling into the tri-state area of IA/WI/IL means business.  Quite a few wind damage reports have been rolling in, and now there's even a tor warning southwest of Dubuque.  SPC meso page has been showing steep mid-level lapse rates feeding in from the west, and helping to very quickly rebuild any instability lost from the earlier MCS.  Could get interesting down this was in the next hour or so.  

They have quite the velo signature on radar right now.

3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

You're probably right about the reason that it's not being cancelled, but I believe that it's up to the local NWS office to cancel the Watch, although they may consult with SPC.

Interesting, I always thought it was the other way around with the SPC consulting with the NWS office but ultimately having the final call. It makes more sense that the NWS office would cancel it

SPC has not been cancelling the watch in IN behind the line. They might be thinking the storms in S IL/MO will strengthen as they enter the western part of the watch area. Glancing at the vis satellite shows clearing behind this initial MCS.

Just south of Indy the storms were pretty meh, maybe 30-35 mph max gust.

A large enhanced did end up getting issued across northern Missouri and southern/western Illinois. These severe wind-producing MCSes are my favorite storms; unfortunately for me this one will turn southeast along the instability gradient long before it gets here. This particular system is actually fairly interesting on radar, with one severe line directly behind the other. The lines are separated by less than 100 miles in spots.

Derecho? A few more wind reports occurred east of Cleveland after the 12z cutoff. Not too shabby considering a lot of these areas had <=5% wind probabilities until the 01z outlook.

5 minutes ago, Calderon said:

TOR warning for Madison Co., IL, near Edwardsville and moving NE away from the city and the SIUE campus. 

It had quite the reflectivity presentation on a previous scan:

Despite that look it didn't have any significant CC drop to my untrained eye and the velocities weren't too impressive. The warning isn't radar confirmed