southernskimmer

32 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I've seen people on other boards upset with the models that it wont snow as if the models control that. I'll say it again, I think improvements in the models has led to this boring winter. 

It certainly has sucked this winter, but we did get 1 storm. Most years it's only 1-3 anyway. The models haven't given us snow inside of day 6 or so because they're catching on quicker to the fact it's not gonna snow. Which I like better than constant tracking to have the rug snatched out 48 hrs out. 

So as the models get better year after year I'd say our time tracking will drop too. Because let's be honest, in the past 9 out of 10 snows went poof at go time. At least we're not seeing that this year because the modeling seems better inside 7 days.

I think it was less of improved modeling and more that there were no threats this winter to track inside of 6 days, because this winter was hot garbage. 

25 minutes ago, jburns said:

As much as I enjoy a good snowstorm I refuse to complain about today's weather. It was glorious.

Everybody at work was in such a great mood today including myself. It really has been a downright depressing stretch of weather, going back to October it seems. 

1 minute ago, Rankin5150 said:

The Carolinas need to keep an eye on ULL development. Correct? This setup can really spawn one. Especially the counties adjacent to the Mountains. Just saying that this needs to be watched until the system has totally passed through. No weenie hope here. Just stating my two pennies based on past history, climatology, etc:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/2/

Was just thinking the same thing. Although, it seems that points east of Raleigh tend to do better with the ULL surprise snow

Just now, Tacoma said:

Surprised there isn't a thread started for the Jan. 29-30-31 time frame.  The chance of some snow looks good during that time if not a possible storm forming in the gulf to enhance the snow, something to follow, things are looking better and better for that time and we're only 4 days out.

Agreed, have to consider that basically every system we have had lately has over performed in terms of qpf 

Before we take you back to your regularly scheduled programming, we have a developing story in the newsroom. Watch as the disco thread goes from sanitarium to obs and banter. More on this at 10. 

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Having said that, couldn't you have played golf the past six weeks (rain aside)?  IMO, fall and winter are the best times to play golf. Summer is beyond too hot and humid.

I tried playing a couple of Saturdays ago (I work until 5 during the week.) It was like playing on soup. We quit after 9 because it was so wet.  I LOVE playing in the summer, but only at 7 am or 3 pm. There's nothing like a quiet evening finishing up as the sun sets while the shadows peek in, and things start to finally cool off. Usually the winter is fine here and there, but with the dormant bermuda not transpiring, a half inch of rain is worse than 2 inches on active turf, so this winter has basically been a complete no go. Spring is hit or miss but there's nothing like that first warm Saturday on the course in early/mid March, and I'm ready for that. Of course I will take snow, it's one of my favorite things to look forward to, but based on how things have been lately, I'm gonna find something else to look forward to. Also I just got an entire new set of clubs from top to bottom, so that is fueling my golf bug a little bit more than usual. I'm heading down to Orlando for a work conference/golf week in early March which I'm absolutely stoked for. 

39 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I am sick to goddamned death of banter and whining in the disco thread. 

Yeah how hard is it to keep in here? 

Having said that I miss the golf course like crazy. I am fine if I don't see a flake this winter and we get an early spring. 

Just now, FallsLake said:

Yeah, the upstate of SC up to your location have had bad luck the last couple of years. There's been numerous storms where you're suppose to get a big storm and it doesn't pan out. That's probably worse then the folks farther east that were never in the game to get anything. 

Yeah. When I moved here from Greensboro I didn't really understand the magnitude of I-85 climo because it never affected me. It's painful as hell

59 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I have no complaints, but there are folks in SE NC, SC ,and Ga that are in a long snow drought (maybe half the board??). I would love to see at least one deep south and coastal snow storm; even if I got shutout. It seems like its been ages since the last one.  

This is my second winter in Matthews, NC. I have yet to see more than a half inch of accumulation. A lot of us south of 85 are due for a monster 

Just now, Upstate Tiger said:

Well at least this weekend's storm looks to lay down some pretty good snow in the Midwest, on top of some areas that just got snow earlier this week.  This should lay down the tracks for the cold air to come south without a lot of moderation.  I know what the ops are showing but I am still not a 100% convinced the system late next week goes as far north as modeled.  A lot of moving parts in play after this weekend make it hard to have faith in any specifics beyond 5 days.  We do know, however, that there will plenty of cold air, s/w's entering the west and more favorable indices.  I wouldn't jump off the cliff just yet.....     

And if you do decide to jump, there is a thread devoted to that 

7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snod&rh=2019011418&fh=252&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=

 

Pivital snow depth at 252 (includes sleet and ZR unfortunately since the Kuchera only goes out to 240)... JACKPOT BABY!

My lawd that is beautiful. Exciting trends today. 

15 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

31/31 in Matthews. 

I’m in Matthews as well. Hope we don’t have power issues 

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I’ve seen several times the stat about we don’t usually get more than one big snow event.

Agreed. If a quarter lands on heads 10 times in a row, the odds are still 50 percent on the 11th flip. 

2 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

You poor soul. 

I feel extremely fortunate my Heels got the win. We hit a lot of shots, and controlled the boards, which made up for the turnovers. I'm not confident about the rematch in CH in a few weeks.

FWIW, State's got a different vibe since Keatts took over. I feel like this is a guy that can build a program (and I never got that sense from Lowe or Gottfried).

It's too bad ya'll hung on to Gottfried for as long as you did. Every offseason, it seemed like at least 2 players would transfer out. Now it looks like players are transferring in.

 

Yes Keatts is one of the good ones. We finally got what we were looking for. We played hard to the last whistle so I can’t complain. The Gott era sucked. He was definitely a Grade-A greaseball. Game was pretty sloppy, but you have to be happy with an ACC win on the road vs a top 25 opponent. Always good for the resume

Hoping my Pack can get this win...

Tucson, AZ even has more snow than me this winter

Climo will own my soul again. Not even getting my hopes up

3 hours ago, oconeexman said:

Itll take an absolute perfectly timed event to score right meow. Hope and pray a flip is coming around day 15.

This is the case for nearly every winter storm for everybody in the southeast (outside of the mountains)

I am fully prepared for a pattern flip. Meaning it will get absolutely frigid and our moisture will be nowhere to be found. 

I dream of the day I look at radar returns like this when my 850's are below 0 

We're allowed to complain and whine in here. That's the point of the whole thing. Having said that, this last storm was beyond frustrating for me, seeing my family and friends in GSO get walloped while i watched it rain 75 miles south. 

2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

If the FV3 can nail two storms, one from 10 days out and the other from 15 days out, then scrap the rest of the models.  We have the one we need for winter forecasts.

Slightly off topic, how did the FV3 do earlier this year with severe storm setups, hurricanes, etc?

FV3 did very well with Florence at long range from my understanding 

Hoping I can get in on some of that action. Looks like that batch of precip in atl is expanding east. Would be a nice little surprise.