AvantHiatus

Wow...Greenland melt us off to a slow start. I really think Greenland is heavily tied to sst's in the N Atlantic. A long-term -AMO would really put the breaks on the melt seasons there.

EDIT: to clarify...I mean a slow down compared to the last decade

It's the only reason why the rest of the Arctic is not below average and was connected w/early Beaufort torch. The AMOC is failing so it's not a true -AMO.

(Accelerating ice mass loss from Antarctica, Greenland and other continental glaciers and ice caps [GICs]. Image source: Geophysical Research Letters.)

Keeping all this in mind, let’s talk a little bit about the ugly transition to phase 2 climate change. A transition it now appears we’re at the start of. The — you should have listened to Dr. James Hansen and read The Storms of My Grandchildren — phase of climate change. The awful, long, stormy period in which the great glaciers really start going down.

*    *    *    *    *

In an effort to organize how human-caused climate change may proceed, it helps to break the likely progression of human-caused climate change down into three basic phases. For this simplification we have phase 1 — polar amplification, phase 2 glacial melt and storms, and phase 3 — runaway hothouse and stratified/Canfield Oceans.

I wish that was the reason for my inactivity.

He is talking out of his ass.

But it's not that cold.

If it snows and a cloudy vortex persists like 2013 that could reset things.

The biggest thing so far is the CAB still being covered with dry snow.

This is good for limiting later damage if a ridge pops.

False, don't respond to trolls. I'm disappointed, across the board with what has transpired in here lately. With you being scared of busting like before and being conservative and others being hostile without a good reason.

You do an awful lot of garbage thinking on this subject without having any education on it at all. Blog posts from Climate of Gavin do not count. Wish mods would get his/her/it garbage posts out of here. Some like to read OBJECTIVE thoughts on Arctic Sea Ice. 

You know the arctic is cold/not torching at all when Global Warmer is nowhere to be found as well.

TGW has his own personal life/needs. Speak for yourself, you are obviously new here and come across as arrogant. I see your name, this is a troll account thru and thru.

This guy is a joke.

Geoengineering would probably be the quickest route to your 90% extinction.

We ain't as smart as we sometimes think we are.

Sounds like you watched Snowpiercer. Geoengineering is not legally tenable in the international community. Russia is always looking for a reason to troll us now anyways.

This is because countries could blame one another for causing droughts, shifting patterns, etc. Things will have to get really bad for geoengineering to ever happen.

Geoengineering? 

I think 2013/2014 convinced everyone that geoengineering was not necessary.

I believe our current geological configuration is more prone to rapid climate flux, one need not look further than the Younger Dryas and 8.2ky event. As well the sharp contrast among interglacials and glacials, which are endemic to the Pleistocene and Holocene.

The end result is that ECS is hard to pin down until tipping points are reached and cycled. Some processes such as ocean feedback systems require a human lifespan.

There are none because they are all 100% true and spoken from God's mouth, duh!

That would be the Ted Cruz church, also known as the Heartland Institute.

It's one of those fringe journals that is biased and funded by a concoction of right-based organizations. We want unbiased studies.

Social science is an interesting field but has no place in climate studies. This is because you often have the humanitarian signal getting in the way and bringing out emotions.

Those are very, very rare people.  What I'm seeing is anyone that doesn't jump on board with "The Day After Tomorrow Mentality" is labeled a denier.  That's whacked!!

 

There's no denying that humans have raised C02 levels & that it has indeed contributed to the warming of the globe; however, if you think that seeing a carbon footprint behind every hurricane, tornado, flood, heat wave, cold wave, High Pressure ridge, El Nino, La Nina...then you're all on your own.  Science IS NOT on your side. 

 

Most skeptics are only skeptical of painting the worst possible outcome or at least expressing extreme confidence in the certainty of the worst possible outcome.  Most skeptics are also very honest about our while we've learned much the last century about climate we are still very ignorant.  Our ignorance of natural climate drivers is well documented & it limits our ability to know just how much we humans have screwed with the climate.

Sorry but that relationship is simply not possible. Think of the butterfly effect and how sensitive the Earth System is to long-term continued inputs. Every event that happens is a product of climate change, period. Even if it may resemble the old climate, which it often does. The inertia keeps the system similar but it's not the same, don't be fooled.

I've only heard discussions about the above bolded in mass media and Michael Mann interviews. I'm unaware of any scientific studies that attempt to evaluate AGW contribution to individual weather events. Don't be slanderous, don't be deceptive. If you don't know, it's okay to admit it.

opinions are meaningless in science

Good man.

You've never posted "quality stuff" a day in your life..why start now?

Depends on what your looking for? Entertainment or Lewis Black.

Can we make that permanent.

Don't be like that. I'll post quality stuff when you guys talk about real topics.

It is our old friend, Paul Beckwith.

No chance of that.

Damn straight.

Arrogant much!!

 

The warm temps were caused by super typhoon recurve which pumps up a super ridge.  What do you expect?  The brutal Alaskan winter of 2012...was it a sign of the next ice age?  Should we have sounded the alarm?

 

Again, a regional weather phenomenon of extreme proportions can happen but it doesn't necessarily mean anything other than it was darn hot.

The warm blob has been there for 2.5 years. New one forming off the East Coast too. I've seen some stuff in my days but this takes the cake. It makes 2012 look like weak sauce, and it was a fooking sauna here literally.

Equilibrium response means the system will deliver very warm and very cold departures somewhere on the Earth.

'Nough said

Mountains out of mole hills. TGW come'on man.... xD. We will have a favorable pattern again this summer (like every normal summer) for ice retention, anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. but it will be counter-balanced by the early head-start.

It will all make sense when NSIDC and JAXA begin tanking in earnest. I know why you would be hesitant to call it for what it is, coming off a year like 2014.

The Kara low blow-up on the Euro is not a model bias. It's legit and makes sense, storms love the contrast and feed off the horizontal temperature gradients between the arctic basin and boreal regions.

If you knew what I knew, you would be taking the Arctic seriously and not just as a hobby. Just sayin'.

I agree with KING here. There is so much bias now both sides of the climate fight that the science is being distorted both sides.

How can we ever be sure of anything on such an important issue? Or if you don't think it is important, are you willing to risk being wrong? Precautionary principle?

You are confusing weather with climate.  It was also incredibly cold in the northeast U.S this past winter....

That is a shade above and beyond the normal range, agreed? We can sit here all day but the climate system is built upon equilibrium.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/alaska-sets-new-record-earliest-day-temperatures-90s

Alaska sets new record for earliest day with temperatures in the 90s

 

 

It’s been a warm, dry spring for much of interior Alaska. On the afternoon of May 23, a new statewide record was set for the earliest day in the year with a temperature in the 90s. A daytime high of 91°F was noted by a cooperative observer in Eagle, where temperatures have been recorded (with some breaks) since the 1890s.

Some regions of Alaska were warmer than Washington DC on May 23rd. Challenging to warp the mind around that one.