AvantHiatus

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/gulf-stream-slowdown-linked-with-sudden-european-cooling.html

True story. I don't think the core of the AMOC slowdown has occured yet which is scary. The Eemian did not have 480 co2 equivalent tho, something to keep in mind. We should expect only regional effects from this.

This is a nasty brew for sure with some unknown consequences, most likely not very not distant from James Hansen's vision of continent-wide superstorms.

A large portion of the AMOC warmth may be simply due to OHC increase.

The beat goes on, and this was starting from a low point/record cold winter. Right now water temperatures are what they should be in early August.

The summer temperatures are contingent on the melt season. As you can see, the temps dropped off after the record 2012

season an were comparable the last two years to the early 2000's.

 

TEMP.png

A larger drop occured in the early 1990s, we should still expect Arctic warming to continue in earnest.

Lay out in detail why you think this.

Should be obvious by September. We will start hitting tipping points in the 2020's without strong, almost impossible mitigation efforts on AGW.

Lockstep with global temperatures in some years like 2010 and 2007 but the connection is weak. Otherwise the overall contour resembles the hiatus.

Bluewave, you should probably narrow your domain to May - September. This is the time when arctic temperatures are most impactful for the ice, albeit polar amplification will show up in all seasons and more strongly during the winter.

The 0.1C rise was based on the 2013-2014 cold summer era ending and never coming back. You will have intra-annual variability but arctic temperatures should stairstep every 3 years or so from now on.

Friv/Global,

 

I really do enjoy reading/following this forum, and your contributions are surely up there with the best.  Just please try not to use the extreme's when you see things emerging, as they often get muted to things way less than your tone suggests.  A one day run that shows "incredible" warmth...often doesn't verify and it detracts from the quality of the information that you offer.  

 

Keep up the good work and just think about it.  

 

Nut

It is what it is, TGW doesn't control the weather.

That's out of line.

Don't stoke the flames. This is just a personal disagreement between two people. I've been trolled on this forum personally and it's against forum policy to make a second account, much less make a second account to troll people.

Sometimes it's super-obvious, like the account has only 1 troll post  and was created a day ago. Yet nothing is ever done about it. 

It's respectable that ORH is open-minded and a lenient moderator. Perhaps I should have used different wording here.

The Arctic is also a cloudy place, which aids in the heat retention mechanism. Albeit these same signals can boost snowfall growth untill we enter into a Pliocene-like Arctic state.

^Agreed.

Tiestche et al 2011 actually assumed an ice free arctic in mid-21st century...so even WARMER conditions than now.

 

 

Arctic amplification is irrelevant to tipping points in the arctic sea ice unless you can show that all of the sudden the arctic itself becomes massively warmer in one year due to an ice free arctic. The Tiestche paper showed this wasnt the case because much of the heat accumulated in the open water in the summer is then lost back to space when the sun sets.

 

 

Without some mechanism to keep the heat in, the volume loss will decrease methodically with temperature increase (with variations in between of course)...it doesn't just dive off a cliff in tippuing point fashion like many tried to claim back a few years ago.

 

 

Additionally, it was argued by some that the 2005-2012 period had accelerated because of natural variation enhancing the warmth in the arctic, not because of a tipping point or some monster arctic amplifcation that we couldn't explain. The last few years has strengthened that argument that it was aided by natural variabilibilty. Therefore, it is not a shock when there is some rebound in volume because the arctic sees a naturally colder pattern for a few years.

Is all the summer accumulated OHC really lost to space? What about the thermal energy that becomes trapped underneath the ice? Additionally, doesn't less albedo act as a positive feedback in warming the Arctic, albeit it may be as influential as the overall pattern drivers, at least during this decade.

We need to keep in mind how effective water is at storing heat for long periods. Having the ice start from a poorer state than 2012 is a negative influence in many ways. We need to place this into context. For example, what if we had a 2010 summer after 2012? I think the effects of arctic tipping points would of been more obvious. Agreed? We would have ended with a September volume much less than 2010 and 2012.

2013 was so anomalous in context that it overcame the tipping point signal. It's really that simple. We have Paleo backing this up strongly as well. You need multiple 2012's to really set the tipping points into motion for sure.

Fair enough. This goes back to our argument about PIOMAS vs HYCOM. Clearly 2014 was not the game-changer everyone thought it was, just like 2012. The coming el nino heatwave will surely make the Arctic warmer next year. The overall big picture is down.

I have no compassion for those who cannot see it, this subject deals with some every important issues in how we run our lives and how we adapt/mitigate AGW. Please take care, this is like political correctness on steroids.

All of the papers about polar amplification are irrelevant to you it seems. We don't have enough meltwater injection to overcome that signal. If global temperatures warm, Arctic temperatures will warm much faster, albeit with a 1-2 year delay at times in either the warm or cold direction. We can say with confidence that the latter portions of this decade will be warmer than 2012 in the Arctic because the hiatus has ended. 

Tiestche el al 2011 was not a hollistic paper, and thus is not useful in projecting future conditions. 

The 0.1C+ warming was just hypothetical FWIW. I don't know the exact values going forward.

Please stay out of this thread if all you are going to do is spout nonesense. It is starting to get old.

 

"we must keep the train going from 2013, no set backs"....what does that even mean? And how is it relevant to an interpretation of the long range Euro?

I don't take lectures from an incompetent moderator. Don't do what every other person did in a position of leadership, which was to provide climate change with a false balance. I don't want to be affiliated with alarmism anymore, it hasn't done me any favors for sure.

The trouble now is convincing others that I 100% objectively think the Arctic is doing poorly this melt season and that there is much at stake for this year in particular. A ice free September before 2020 is possible if the pivotal melt season of 2015 fails to stabilize.

Let's assume that every year in the Arctic will be at least 0.1C warmer every year going forward during the melt season, that means every consecutive season will need 350km2+ (placeholder value) volume to remain in the same state every summer. This has been my argument from the beginning but it was derailed by the unusual conditions present in the 2013/2014 melt seasons. A status quo arctic summer is now equivalent to summer 2010 when we remove all the natural variability signals. 

You should be able to figure it out ORH. The years of research papers and Bluewave posts have provided us with enough knowledge of the Arctic so that we may extrapolate successfully.

My next goal is to discover a link between the cold summers of 2013 and 2014 and the Pacific 'Blob' in the Gulf of Alaska, because there is obviously a connection there. Again, the cold summers would of been a product of AGW and not natural variability.

Both globals show GIS ridging and WAA steadily increasing

DC tied for 3rd on 90-degree day count as of today with 12. 2010 also had 12.. 1991 lead with 16.

Impressive considering the prevailing 500mb. How many of the 90s were in May?

To be fair. In a way it's kinda b like people like myself who expected the -NAO JJA to be consistent and the ice to only see what you want to see or what held verify the result you expect.

Granted the evidence for a hiatus to last to 2030 or longer doesn't exist.

But folks got used to it and for some it verified the result they expected or wanted to happen.

Its been proven part of the slow down is some change in the SH oceans.

The ssts are record low around the SP.

But OHC further down started to rapidly climb.

Its even effecting glacial outlets from below.

But it's also theorized that some of that stored heat is riding a train back to the Indian ocean South of Australia as well as towards the equatorial Pacific. Well see.

But the "hiatus" is over.

My prediction was not based on what I wanted to happen. For the record. I'm kind of disappointed that you did tho. The end of the hiatus was staring us in the face as early as 2013 with the warming trend without el nino processes and the on-going OHC increase.

ORH, the difference between the May average among 2015 and 1957 is minor. You need to look at the individual events, which were extreme in their own right. The monthly average was toned down by the drier east and west with the majority of the wet record on the 'backs of the Midwest.

WeatherBoy007 keeps putting marks on the wall and ORH keeps painting the wall. Fun to watch the slapdowns.

62' was a bad year.

This is simply what occurs in a classic Niño split flow pattern.

Why hasn't it happened in the 20th century ninos? Don't be a denier, there is an AGW component here. The percentage is hard to quantify.

I would believe you but the difference is way more than one decimal place.

Perhaps 4.33" of precip on avg would have fallen in a cooler climate  instead of 4.36"?

This is simply what occurs when El Nino coincides with AGW.

Awesome

Rich

Unreadable.

Some of these posts need to go to the banter thread.

400,000 hiroshimas every day, enough said.

Wasn't there a huge ridge there ?

Those are huge anomalies tho.

Insane really.

No man, yeah mabye the far eastern section of that but the area near the east coast is permanently above normal regardless of the pattern since 2013 and semi-permanent since 2011.

We are not in a -AMO....we are in a declining AMO. There's a difference.

I think there will be a secondary +AMO peak in the 2018-2023 timeframe if greenland melt doesn't go beserke.

I was not around in the 1950s with high resolution SST maps, never assume anything. The defining feature that sets apart this -AMO from all the rest is the very warm West Atlantic and Gulf Stream 'heat streak'. Which either means this is a blip in the long-term +AMO or the AMOC has partially failed, leading to a 'traffic jam' of heat.

Even if the ice does not melt out to record years, this year will have some nasty permafrost damage.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015060606&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=330.9090837368297

#1 It's not a -AMO anyway....yet

 

#2 AMOC failing???

1.) I believe it is, but the -AMO has been unable to lock in during a 6-month window for whatever reason.

2015 0.012 0.016 -0.109 (March 2015) -0.051

2.) Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is on the decline.

Read more (new study): http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n5/full/nclimate2554.html