J.Spin

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Posts posted by J.Spin


  1. Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.31” L.E.

     

    This most recent event has cleared out as of this morning.  I had debated putting last night’s snow into its own event with the way the BTV NWS spoke about it as a distinct dew point boundary, but it really did seem to be trailing moisture from the main system, so I’ve kept it all together.

     

    Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

    New Snow: 0.2 inches

    New Liquid: Trace

    Temperature: 20.7 F

    Sky: Cloudy

    Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

     

    The next potential snow event in the pipe appears to be coming into the area this afternoon with low pressure and its attendant cold front moving over from Lake Superior.  There’s more substantial lake moisture anticipated to affect the Saint Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks, but some may make it over to the Northern Greens as well.


  2. Since we’re back below freezing now, I went out to empty the rain gauge and return it to winter mode.  It had an additional 0.14” of liquid in it, so that puts the liquid at 0.31” for this event.

    While I was outside I saw that some flakes we had earlier have turned into a steadier light snow now, with a couple of tenths of new accumulation down.  It looks like it’s from a band passing through the area that’s visible on radar:

    10DEC19A.gif


  3. Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E.

     

    I found a tenth of an inch of frozen on the boards this morning from the front end of this current system.  I put the inner cylinder back in the rain gauge based on the forecast for this next part of the storm, which should be above freezing until tomorrow.

     

    Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

    New Snow: 0.1 inches

    New Liquid: Trace

    Temperature: 34.5 F

    Sky: Cloudy

    Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches


  4. 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

    Those maps have basically become the front of winter forecasting. A snow map starts spitting out 3-6''...6-10''...30"+...its sound the alarms...major winter storm threat...it doesn't matter what any other piece of guidance looks like. A snow map has it so it's legit. IMO, winter forecasting is going to continue to go downhill faster than an Olympic skier over the next few years and it's b/c the widespread use of these products to highlight winter threats just outweigh analysis done which incorporate a wide variety of products/knowledge. 

    It’s not as if it really going to change any actual winter forecasting though; the pros at the NWS don’t spew out those snow maps; even TWC doesn’t throw them out there – they generate their own consensus projection maps.  The people who I generally see putting those maps out there are weenies and Twitter “mets”, who are essentially on the scene for fun and entertainment vs. having any actual professional responsibility with respect to forecasting.


  5. I just noticed that the totally clear skies we had this morning have clouded over again, and the sky is starting to look like it has the potential for snow.  I see on the radar that there is moisture coming into the area, and the BTV NWS suggests that it’s in association with the warm front ahead of this next system.

    08DEC19A.gif


  6. Event totals: 8.4” Snow/0.22” L.E.

     

    Skies have really cleared out overnight, so it looks like that will mark the end of this event.  This Clipper has now taken the top spot for accumulation on the season, edging out the 11/7/2019 short wave/cold front that brought 7.1” exactly a month ahead of this one.

     

    Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

    New Snow: 0.1 inches

    New Liquid: Trace

    Temperature: 0.7 F

    Sky: Clear

    Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches


  7. 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

    To date

    IMG_20191207_180730.jpg

    Man Ginx, most of those averages are insane; that really puts things in perspective.  I don’t know the exact numbers, but I have to assume with the way Ezekiel went down in some spots, people could go the entirety of December without another flake and they’d still be ahead on mean annual snowfall.


  8. 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

    It is nuking at the mountain still.  Huge flakes!

    Yeah, we had some pretty large flakes here when I was out doing 7:00 P.M. observations and analysis, some up to 20 mm across.  I assume it was when the ~30 db portion of that streamer pushed through the Winooski Valley:

    07DEC19D.gif


  9. It seemed like this event was tapering off, but my wife just got home and I saw that we’ve got big flakes pouring down again.  Sometimes there can be a diurnal component to these events, but the BTV NWS hasn’t said much in their discussion other than that they were expecting the snowfall to generally slow down as the lapse rates stabilized and moisture decreased.

    07DEC19C.gif

    • Like 1

  10. 2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

    Life in the snow globe.  Another one converted to upslope way of life!  

    Stacked up on every little twig today.  Such a beautiful drive through town to the mountain.

    Hollywood movies spend a million dollars to recreate these scenes with perfect dendrites fluttering down and stacking on everything.

    Yeah, this was by no means a big upslope storm for around here, but it was a nice subtle bread and butter event with little wind, and it definitely put a nice shot of picturesque into the landscape.  I had a bit of time this morning, so I pulled out some telephoto lenses and shot a bunch of images from the house of things in the yard with the fresh snow.  I’ve got a couple below for now, and I’ll try to get a few more up when I get a chance.  A look at how that 50:1+ snow can behave sometimes:

    07DEC19B.jpg

    07DEC19A.jpg

    07DEC19C.jpg

    • Like 1

  11. 9 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

    BTV AFD..some nice:weenie::weenie: disco...ha.  Awesome though for you guys and resorts up North.

    As of 1236 PM EST Saturday...Report from nws employee at local
    resort in the northern Green Mtns continues to indicate light
    snow with some accumulation occurring. Have continued to mention
    likely pops with total daytime snowfall accumulation of an inch
    or two possible from Mansfield to Jay Peak. The localized BTV
    snow machine is having difficulties finding the off switch,
    which is not a bad thing, especially when some are having fun
    with product testing. Otherwise, flow becomes unblocked this
    aftn and depth of moisture decreases by 21z, which will result
    in decreasing areal coverage of snow shower activity. No
    significant changes to crnt fcst.

    Some of the models did show the snowfall hanging around today – it was really just a blip of blue along the spine of the Northern Greens, but when ratios are like what we’ve had, it doesn’t take much moisture to stack up.  You can see that northwest flow still cruising into the spine on the radar – it’s more cellular now as the radar image below shows, but the snowfall doesn’t seem to stop, it just waxes and wanes and at times you’ve got the sun shining with fairly decent accumulation at the same time.

    07DEC19B.gif


  12. 1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said:

    85-1..not bad.

    Ive always wondered...When do you sleep? 12am and 6am obs every day?

    I’m usually up until roughly midnight on most nights, so if it’s snowing significantly and looks like it will be worth it, I’ll run an analysis (and they’re much quicker now that I don’t even have to melt down the snow).  Sometimes I’ll just do one at 10 PM or something and head to bed if I’m tired.  Some nights, like earlier this week, I’ll just wait until morning if it doesn’t seem worth it.  This kind of snow we’re getting right now though (>50:1 type of stuff) is worth trying to catch to document the actual density, since it will settle fairly fast.

    I also don’t stress to hard if I don’t catch things at exactly 6 AM in the morning, so I don’t set an alarm and don’t worry about it too much if I’m a little late.  Either my wife or I wake up around then anyway, but day after day after day of analyses all winter can be draining if you’re actually getting up specifically for it with an alarm and can never sleep in.  It’s really a volunteer activity/service getting the numbers in for CoCoRaHS, so I try not to kill myself with it, as much as I do love rigorous analyses as a scientist.

    My natural sleep cycle is typically about 6 to 7 hours though, so even if I do catch the midnight and 6 AM observations, it’s not out of the norm.  Some mornings I’ll head back to bed to catch another hour if I feel tired, sometimes I’ll catch a quick nap in the evening after work/dinner, so I fit the extra sleep in where it’s needed.  My wife needs 8 to 9 hours of sleep, but she’s typically in bed by 9 PM or so, so she gets that in easily.

    Between observations, skiing, work, family, etc., it definitely keeps the winter rhythm pretty lively around here.

    • Thanks 1

  13. When I checked the Bolton snow report this morning I saw that they were reporting 9” of new in the past 24 hours, so I did a north to south rundown on the overnight/24-hour accumulations from the Vermont ski areas:

    Jay Peak: 5”

    Burke: 4”

    Smuggler’s Notch: 4”

    Stowe: 6”

    Bolton Valley: 9”

    Mad River Glen: 6”

    Sugarbush: 6”

    Middlebury: 2”

    Suicide Six: 5”

    Pico: 5”

    Killington: 5”

    Okemo: 5”

    Bromley: 6”

    Magic Mountain: 5”

    Stratton: 3”

    Mount Snow: 5”

    It does look like the Sugarbush through Stowe stretch of the spine has done fairly well for a system that was hitting a bit harder to the south.  It’s still snowing pretty nicely down here at the house though, so there should certainly be a bit more to tack on at elevation.


  14. 10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

    Nice snowy evening and the upslope flow seems to be doing it's thing. 

    I think we were coming out of a bit of a lull at some point earlier, but as I was looking at the radar this morning, it doesn’t actually look all that different from what you posted yesterday evening.  There's definitely a bit more snow incoming:

    07DEC19A.gif


  15. Event totals: 3.6” Snow/0.14” L.E.

     

    This Clipper has actually brought more snow than the last one now, and it’s certainly achieving the 2-4” that was in the point forecast.  This event’s had a touch less moisture so far, but ratios have been quite good as the latest round shows.

     

    Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

    New Snow: 2.0 inches

    New Liquid: 0.04 inches

    Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0

    Snow Density: 2.0% H2O

    Temperature: 21.9 F

    Sky: Light Snow (4 to 12 mm flakes)

    Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches


  16. 2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

    Nice snowy evening and the upslope flow seems to be doing it's thing. 

    SnowyClimate.jpg

     I just finished up some stuff and looked outside to see the big flakes coming down, so I checked the radar – your post was a couple hours ago and that upslope flow looks like it’s just been cruising along, pounding up against the wall:

    06DEC19A.gif

    The day after day of flakes has definitely started to make it look and feel a bit more like typical December around here.


  17. Event totals: 3.3” Snow/0.17” L.E.

     

    Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

    New Snow: 0.2 inches

    New Liquid: Trace

    Temperature: 23.0 F

    Sky: Flurries

    Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

     

    This recent shortwave finished off with a final couple of tenths overnight, but the next one is right on its heels.  There was hardly a lull in snowfall before snow started picking up this morning in association with this next Clipper.

    Our point forecast has 2-4” through this evening, which would put this system in the same range as the last one, but that’s a bit out of synch with the BTV NWS forecast discussion, which would suggest T-2” around here.  This system has always looked a bit less potent up here in the northern part of the state, but perhaps the point forecast numbers are due to the way some models have a bit more moisture up here and/or higher snowfall ratios.


  18. Event totals: 3.1” Snow/0.17” L.E.

     

    Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

    New Snow: 0.6 inches

    New Liquid: 0.01 inches

    Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0

    Snow Density: 1.7% H2O

    Temperature: 24.4 F

    Sky: Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes)

    Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches


  19. Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.16” L.E.

     

    We picked up another 1.5” of snow during the day today, and there’s been some additional snow falling this evening that I’ll roll into the next round of observations.

     

    Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

    New Snow: 1.5 inches

    New Liquid: 0.10 inches

    Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0

    Snow Density: 6.7% H2O

    Temperature: 27.3 F

    Sky: Flurries

    Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches