sebastiaan1973

Latest EC, good for parts of the USA and Europe. Negative NAO. Jan-Feb-Ma 

15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Fish

I'm just posting. Don’t care about the LR stuff (though I recognize and value the contributions of folks like Ray and Raindance)

 

It reminds World Climate Service of the winter of 1878

The Year Without a Winter: 1877-78 | Minnesota DNR (state.mn.us)

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-forecast-polar-vortex-el-nino-qbo-strong-impact-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/

El Nino and the positive IOD which last one can lead to positive NAO.

Glosea6. 

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, extratropical refers to much more than polar.

I see what you meant earlier, maybe I posed an incorrect link. This one works. 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/august-enso-update-potential.html?m=1

Thanks Ray, this solves the problem. I asked this, not just for me, but I share the link for the weather freaks on the other side of the Atlantic 

10 hours ago, Henry's Weather said:

Who cares, it's an article and its title. Perhaps articles should include footnotes of definitions for every single word used too.

"He said blue, but it's actually aquamarine". I don't understand the significance of the complaint

Fortunately Ray does understand.  

By double clicking at the date (which is at 12th of august) I get the latest of your thoughts of 24th of August. And now it fits. So there is a problem with the website. Which I wanted to make clear. Being not native English-speaker, it was more difficult than I thought to do. Edit. After trying again, it remains wrong. Another way to get the right article, is to go to 'Blog archive' on the right side. Than you get the latest! 

Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

Perhaps, now people do understand. First you see Polar landscape, the second is extratropical which contains much more than polar. So the description of the link and what you get is not the same.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is your issue with that title? I have no clue what you are getting at...preliminary analysis of the polar domain for winter..IOW, my first thoughts about what the polar area may or may not look like this winter.

The link says preliminary analysis of extra tropical, I get don't get this but  instead polar vortex analysis. 

So, the title says A, but I get to see B. 

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the odds are fairly strong that we will see a PV take shape in a couple of months, but let me know if you feel differently.

What I mean is this. Please the read the link. 

On 8/12/2023 at 6:37 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

Thanks a lot, seems to me, there is something wrong, because when I click on the link, the website shows your article of 12th of august about the polar vortex.

11 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Could you share the link to this? Thanks

Global long-range model probability maps - Met Office

The Chinese and English seasonal models. Update.

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it sucks here, too.....it goes wild with la nina....that's why that monster Aleutian ridge is so flat.

Predictability of European winter 2020/2021: Influence of a mid‐winter sudden stratospheric warming - Lockwood - Atmospheric Science Letters - Wiley Online Library

In the autumn of 2020 Glosea5 overestimated La Nina. i suppose it's doing it again. You can read it yourself in the link above. 

Other form

Is this okay for you guys? For us, in western Europe this is terrible. Glosea (UK)

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Then, there is the UK.... 

it's the forecast from August. The next one is coming in a couple of days. I guess around 12/13 of september.

How Do Stratospheric Perturbations Influence North American Weather Regime Predictions? in: Journal of Climate Volume 35 Issue 18 (2022) (ametsoc.org)

The impact of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex on persistent weather regimes over North America is so far underexplored. Here we show the relationship between four wintertime North American weather regimes and the stratospheric vortex strength using reanalysis data. We find that the strength of the vortex significantly affects the behavior of the regimes. While a regime associated with Greenland blocking is strongly favored following weak vortex events, it is not the primary regime associated with a widespread, elevated risk of extreme cold in North America. Instead, we find that the regime most strongly associated with widespread extremely cold weather does not show a strong dependency on the strength of the lower stratospheric zonal mean zonal winds. We also suggest that stratospheric vortex morphology may be particularly important for cold air outbreaks during this regime.

Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions (springer.com)

Combined Impacts of PDO and Two Types of La Niña on Climate Anomalies in Europe in: Journal of Climate Volume 30 Issue 9 (2017) (ametsoc.org)

These studies might by of interested for coming winter.

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Springer article is much better...more extensive. That is the piece that I use.

You mean this one Different types of La Niña events and different responses of the tropical atmosphere | SpringerLink right?

I think this is an important research for this winter.

Interannual climate anomalies in the Atlantic-European region associated with La-Nina types - IOPscience

Glosea5 for december till february

September vs October output of EC.

A weaker than normal stratosphere at 10 hPa. EC46.q