harrisale

Worth noting that the Bay of Fundy (New Brunswick) has some of the largest tides in the world. A big surge pushing up the Bay could make for some serious coastal flooding/erosion. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1869_Saxby_Gale

5 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

From TWN. That 50-75 contour is incredible and I'm smack in the middle of it. Sorry Toronto however I don't buy one bit into maps like this and it was a snapshot from this morning.

Stoked for the S Ontario crew! Looks like a big one... Always wanted to see a proper blizzard. I'm a bit jealous I'll be honest. I have a buddy who's supposed to drive Guelph to Hanover for the weekend... I'm trying to get him to leave early or I don't know if he'll make it at all!

Watching this one from out West. Stoked for the folks back home. 

FWIW, we're just waking up to a 10-12" storm here in Southern BC; the same energy thats going to spin up the big system out east. Quite an over-performer here (forecast 6-8") and it turns out a CMC/ECMWF blend was more accurate than the GFS a few days out. Do with that information what you will!

3 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Someone needs to go up there this year and install some web cams. I'm not seeing anything live.

Live stream from Louisbourg, Nova Scotia:

Congrats YYZ on the Blizzard Warning. Interested to see how this one ranks once all is said and done.

I live on the west coast now but just popped in to comment. Always wanted to witness a proper Toronto blizzard so I'm glad it finally happened! Enjoy the snow walks.

1 minute ago, vman722 said:

That seemed to be what held back the NE MS cells earlier but sure isn't the case with these AL monsters. These are beyond impressive. Effective shear for both cells per mesoanalysis up to 70-73kt. 

The prime environment was definitely a little farther SE than expected. Possibly caught a few folks off-guard today, and thus fatalities. Hoping people are heeding the warnings now and we keep that number to 3.

Just now, nwohweather said:

SRH of 600 is so so powerful

That's big time. 

And earlier in the thread we had posts about SRH being the bust factor today!

3 fatalities reported in Ohatchee, AL according to James Spann on ABC 33/40.

9 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Welp after nearly a year entirely working from home, I've been instructed to begin returning to the office starting next Tuesday. Will be weird to actually be in dress pants daily, but feels somewhat normal I suppose. Also will have to start traveling (not by plane) as well

Just wait until the first office outbreak and you'll be back at home in no time

Around here, still a blanket instruction for all citizens that if they can work from home, they should be doing so. Our office doesn't foresee a return until mid-summer, maybe even September (when most people should be vaccinated).

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The UK strain has been confirmed in Indiana.  I think you might as well assume it is in most states in the country at this point.  The question is the numbers.

Multiple provinces in Canada have detected the UK strain and at least one province (Alberta) has the South African variant as well. 

At this pace, do you think the US could reach herd immunity through infection before it does via vaccination? CDC estimated 91 million actual infections from Feb-Sept alone... obviously many more since then and only at an increasing rate.

If the CDC estimates only 1 in 7.2 cases are being reported, and the US currently sits at 21,920,352 cases, that would translate to 157,826,534 actual infections so far, which is about 48% of the population.

Of course, this assumes you can only catch the virus once.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

(apologies if this has been discussed already)

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

It may not be, I do say it is quite huge in Ontario though, and even if there isn't cross country travel there still is travel.

Thanksgiving in Canada is not as big a deal as it is in the US, but people still generally spend the long weekend with close family and often travel. My observation is that in the US Thanksgiving and Christmas are on-par, while in Canada Christmas easily takes the cake as the bigger celebration.

I think we had somewhat of a bump from Thanksgiving, but there were also other factors that were also contributing to increasing caseload (weather, schools back in, general COVID fatigue etc.).

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Looking like a rainer. No real Arctic air and late phase. 

Agreed, just not enough cold air in place ahead of this thing, even with a big phase. Same system in January would be something...

8 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

My mother still talks about Hazel.  She remembers those big, round metal trashcans they had back then flying down the street in her Cheverly, MD neighborhood.

Hazel resulted in the largest one day rainfall total ever measured in Toronto (YYZ). There was some serious flooding in the city’s west end and a total of 35 deaths. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Hazel_in_Canada

Thinking I'll actually squeeze out a dusting to 0.5" tomorrow morning. Precip shield looks a bit bigger on the short-range models so we'll just get scraped.

lol big call.

5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Curious if we will see any last second shifts with sampling finally occurring tonight and tomorrow 

Yeah I'll hold out until tomorrow morning. Need this current system to clear out the way and get some sampling on the Pac energy before making any final calls.

48 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

HRDPS is still quite bullish on snow amounts for the GTA, lol. I don't think any of us will get anymore than an inch. 

Hows Oakville on the season? 

Going to be fun to watch. A few tenths of a degree or some evap cooling might make the difference.

I'm just in town for 2 weeks visiting the family but according to the parents about 29cm on the season so far. Majority from the early Nov event. 

Moved to YVR a year ago so hoping for some action while I'm here!

6 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I seen that, but I have my doubts.

Both HRDPS and Nam keep sfc temps around the freezing mark. I think those around King Road and north have the best chance for accumulating snowfall (>2"). I'm going with Trace to max 1" near the lake. 

Ah maybe 4" was too bullish on the high side. Shouldn't have bit on a single NAM run. It's backed off a bit now. Actually a pretty close call for a YYZ storm but the phase didn't quite happen in time.

FWIW the system tonight into tomorrow has trended a lot snowier for YYZ. If the NAM is to be believed we could have a nice little 2-4” on the ground by Sunday. 

Probably not going to get any reliable sampling on that wave until about Sunday. I'll hold onto my hat until then but that leaves plenty of time for dreamin'.

I was lucky and scored mood flakes for most of the morning into the afternoon. Moderately sized puffballs for an hour or so with no wind; very snow globe-esque. I'll take it considering we'll be back to rain in 48 hours. 

Merry Xmas to all!

I'll bite on some Xmas snow. I'm back in the region for the holidays; going to school on the west coast and the storm tracking just isn't the same!

End of the NAM now showing the 23-24th wave with some pre-Xmas flakes. Hard to say if it will be White Christmas material but considering the bare ground now I'd take it.

Beyond that, looks like a system around the 27-28th and one around New Year's as well. The former seems like a rainer, too far north with the track. But the latter can hopefully plough into some nice cold air (and northern snow pack) brought down by the first system and spread some wealth. Active period at least.

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

NHC not buying the stall and SW movement in their 5pm map

I suspect they will wait at least another 24 hours before modifying the public forecast to reflect this... if indeed this 'trend' remains on the models. Not enough confidence in a stall just yet to change the cone so dramatically. Could send a confusing message. Though they did add more of a west turn to the cone once the storm moves inland.

10 hours ago, Toronto4 said:

Today's snowfall in Toronto is most likely the last one of the season. With this in mind, it's time to grade this winter. And it's a tough one.

The winter started with a bang from mid-December to early January with snow and cold. Lots of frequent light snowfalls and the result was a picturesque white Christmas. Very cold conditions around New Year's. A break in mid January before coming back in late in the month and lasting until Feb. 10th. After that, a very long drought without any significant winter weather until mid-April when the GTA was affected by a major sleet storm.

In the end, total snowfall was around normal and my final grade for this winter is B-. This month's sleet storm bumped up the grade from a C+. I can't go any lower than C+/B- (despite the lack of big snowstorms) is because the period before Christmas was amazing.

I'm going to go with a B- for the winter. Still pulled off average snowfall so hard to complain there. And as you mentioned the 'perfect Christmas' we had really was the winter's highlight, and quite a pleasant one at that. After mid-Jan, things went downhill quickly and by early-mid Feb cross country ski season was already done, which was a real bummer for me. Felt like maybe we were going to pull an early spring but the mid-Feb through til today period was a real let-down, minus the fascinating sleet storm of course.

22 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

This winter was ok up until the 2nd week in February. Then it disappeared.

You could even argue winter began to transition out in late January. That thaw was pretty much the beginning of the end besides a slight winter resurgence in early Feb. Its just been a month-long end of the end this year ha..

On the plus side I have been able to bike to work for 4 weeks now; that’s a lot earlier than usual. Took a bit of a soaking on the ride home this afternoon.