timnc910

I understand everyone's frustrations about not being in the epicenter of the upcoming storm. Living in Southeastern North Carolina i was this happen to us all the time. Models come in showing a good hit then boom the inevitable NW trend or warm nose comes along. It has been many many years since Southeastern North Carolina has seen a decent winter storm. 

Was a snow and sleet mixed now its all snow. Some nice size flakes coming down

Moderate snow and sleet here in Maple Hill

Just now, downeastnc said:

It really wont take much to turn this into something as bit more than a few flurries, already downstream it seems to be producing a bit more than the hi res show, sure would be nice to see one bust in our favor for once.....doesn't seem likely but we may see at least some flurries up here in Pitt Co....

i was just looking at the radar and the precip field already looks more expansive than the hrrr has initialized at. although it isn't much but it will be nice to see snow falling here in se nc.

Way to premature for this thread. There is so much spread in all the models. This isnt like the dec storm where most models were in agreement. 

Some of the banter post in the discussion thread is just ridiculous. i go in there to get reliable information about the upcoming pattern and possible storms. However i have to sort through numerous of unrelated post than the topic at hand. All this cliff diving between each model suite itself is quite appalling. For example 0z could be showing a great setup and everyone is pumped up and talking about certain dates that could potentially produce storms. then 6z could show and unfavorable set up and everyone is going crazy filling the discussion with pointless post screaming torch fest and we never can get a good set up etc.  Again we are in the south east. I myself want to get wintry weather as bad as any other person on this board but if it doesn't happen i don't go in the discussion thread with my self pity ranting about why each model suit wasn't as favorable as the other. 

18z is back to reality. Brings back the trough instead of the ridge that 12z was showing

Can anyone suggest a better moblie radar other than weatherbug

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Is that a second wave over Texas? That’s what I was thinking. 

that is the upper level part of this storm. that is what is suppose to swing through with the second wave of precip. Although models have trended less with the precip from this feature as it swings through.

Out to hour 9 on the nam. the high pressure is 2 mb stronger and further east.

looking at current radar the returns out ahead of the system are moving in a southeastern fashion. It will be interesting to see if that leads to a more suppressed track than being modeled. 

could the multiple areas of high pressure that is now being model( which i believe is what people refer to banana high) be giving the models trouble right now?

It looks like the wave dropping down on the back side is developing better off the coast on the 0z 

At hour 90 the low is a good bit further off the coast than the 18z run

out to 102 of the fv3 gfs the snow fall mean has shifted south a good bit. if you go back and compare the previous runs the southern trend that Wow pointed out is clearly noticeable

Tonights 0z runs should be interesting to say the least. The trend on a couple of the models recently have been a more southern track and a stronger cold push. Either way this is great chasing material.

So much panic of the first winter storm of the season and it isn't even winter yet. Let the short range models get into range and they will iron out the small details that will make it or break it for this storm. The components of this storm is just now getting close to the continental united states. let the models get a better sampling of the two waves out west and get a better handle on how the cad is going to materialize before going straight off the cliff. We still have all winter in front of us just wait and be patient.  

18z icon appears to becoming in a bit less amped then the 12z runs. The last few runs of the icon snowfall mean has shifted south. Lets see where it ends up this go around.

3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

What are the totals for SE NC on the control run?

From what i can tell it was 1 to 3 inches give or take. Lesser amounts closer to the coast.

she is a resilient one. steadily wanting to fire convection around the center and wants to wrap it around so badly. 

2 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Starting to feel like we're in for a surprise:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

 

she has really been getting better organized over the next few hours. alot of models have florence strengthening a little before landfall. with recent ir and visible loops i don't see why it couldn't happen

im at 12' above that gauge

11 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

How much above that gauge level are you?  Do you know?  anything under 35-40' I would be concerned. 

 

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=mhx&gage=chin7 this is the forecasted river level which is within a mile of my house the record level was when floyd hit

looking at the latest ir radar there is a big area of convection firing up on the southeast side of the storm. 

1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Another thing to consider is that Flo will most likely be a steady state hurricane with massive CDO/eyewall. The timing of the ERC's could very well be the difference between a Cat 3 or 4....its not your typical sloppy 3/4 eye while the storm is shearing out cane we typically see...this means it will be able to hold up better when in comes inland and potentially bring some 100-120 mph wind gust pretty far inland, like RDU far....certainly farther than any storm since Hazel....especially along and north and east of center. Add the strong ridge building back in the north and there could be winds gusting 40-50 over eastern NC for a couple of days...

This is practically the worst case scenario cane for east central NC.... its one I honestly never thought I would actually see play out.....hopefully I still don't.

 

This will be a storm people remember for ever i'm afraid. With the coast being more populated than in the past with other storms. the chance of seeing bigger destruction than the storms of the past is pretty high.