TheWeatherPimp

Filtered sunshine in Indianapolis. Definitely working hard at clearing and temp up to 62 from 57. 

Not sure I can ever remember in the course of two day 2 outlooks, areas going from 0% tornado risk to hatched 15% tornado risk. Pretty remarkable change. 

The SPC Day 2 outlook is......real late. I hear via chat that a Moderate Risk is coming. 

I'll be the first to admit that I woke up quite surprised to see the placement of the day 2 outlook. With the dynamics in place across much of Indiana and Western Ohio, it won't take much instability at all to cause trouble, particularly with the guidance shifting the track of the low more northwest. We'll see what their afternoon update shows, but the latest solutions are quite worrisome for much of Central and Southern Indiana and Western/Southwestern Ohio if some recovery/instability occurs tomorrow. 

The Winchester Tornado hit very close to home (well it was my home). The house I grew up in was destroyed and my family's houses were less than 2 blocks from the tornado. They were very lucky and I feel extremely relieved. I was on the phone with them yelling at them to get in the bathrooms and cover themselves with blankets and pillows. It was nauseating. But I'm so thankful they are all okay. 

It sounds like the NWS Indianapolis has finalized the rating of the Winchester tornado as an EF3. To be honest, I truly thought they might push it over the threshold based on some of the photos I've seen but I haven't seen the damage in person and won't until later this week. 

Decent freezing rain accumulations in Downtown Indy. Just now changing over to some sleet. 

9 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Traffic in Indy could be a nightmare in a couple hours.  Transition zone is supposed to cross into Indy in about an hour right before rush hour per KIND update.  They drive like idiots down there (as they do in any larger metros) lol.  Also first semi crash on 65 south of LAF.  imagine that 

https://511in.org/@-88.6322,40.09838,7?show=incidents,normalCameras,weatherWarningsAreaEvents,plowCameras,flooding

Yeah, Indy is going to be a mess during the evening commute. We should see rain change to snow in Indy/Marion County within the next 60-75 minutes and snow rates will reach 1"+ per hour for a couple hours. Hopefully people left work early.

NWS Indy leaning in pretty hard on their conference talking about widespread disruptions and possible power outages and structural damage due to the weight of the snow and leaning heavily into the idea that this will at least be a top 25 storm for Indy.

The NAM extrapolated is a classic and prolonged freezing rain event for much of Central Indiana, something I've personally been worried about for days now. This has ice event written all over it.  

With the depth of the arctic air, I wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain and temperatures in the middle to upper 20's. Ice should accrete quite efficiently wherever the band of freezing rain sets up. That combined with falling temps and strong winds Thursday Night and Friday will lead to a very dangerous combo. 

One thing I just tweeted that I'll echo here. I'm hoping when the NWS issues headlines they keep it simple and just run a watch/eventual warning for the duration of wave 1/wave 2. No point in making things complicated when impacts will be felt from Wednesday through at least Thursday Night. But NWS IWX is already talking about possible headlines for the first wave followed by a second round of headlines for wave 2. That's overly complicated and confusing IMO. Just my two cents, not that it matters. 

Just now, Hoosier said:

Wow, long time no see.  How's it going?

Good good sir. Moved back to Indianapolis last summer, so thought I would pop my head in here. 

1 minute ago, Kentucky said:

Anyone have the Euro ice map?

Good discussion from IND. Not sure I agree with everything they said about the freezing rain potential, but otherwise a good discussion. 

https://kamala.cod.edu/in/latest.fxus63.KIND.html

I wonder if any storm chasers got hurt or killed in this. I would think at least some of the deaths were do to with curious weenies who wanted to watch and photograph it with thier Iphone instead of running from it. Yeah there's an EF4 in your area, but if it's a matter of life and death you may have to settle for a quick glimpse. I know I'd make the wrong choice.

There is an unconfirmed report that 4 amateur chasers were killed - reported by Brett Adair. I have not heard any confirmation of this though.

Jim Cantore NEW: Rainsville, AL Police Chief confirmed the 25 dead, adding eight were in one trailer park. Many people are unaccounted for.

Tough call up here with clearing already beginning to our West. Depends on how much clearing can take place and where the low pressure goes but our local nws after listening to their conference call is obviously in significant odds with the spc, so who knows.

Obviously we are crossing our fingers that the Northern portions of the moderate risk area work out as we would love to chase tomm.

The Northern threat area is definitely tricky. The HRRR is trying to clear things out by 14z across nearly all of Indiana with destabilization then in-progress. With the two surface low reflections, winds back pretty significantly across the Northern threat area with very high levels of low level shear, just not as much instability. Tough call really, but with the lows spinning near by and plenty of effective shear at the surface, the potential is definitely there.

There continue to be some very critical differences between the NAM and GFS for tomorrow. Should be an interesting day to see how things evolve.

Stronger surface reflection could also cause a farther NW Track, might not be much, but at least some. The NAM showing some impressive STP numbers across Eastern Indiana/Western Ohio.

00z GFS is ugly for portions of Eastern Indiana/Ohio

The backed wind potential on Wednesday is insane

Tomorrow is looking better and better with precip clearing out of Indiana by 12z with destabilization in progress across Eastern Illinois and all of Indiana by late morning per the rapid refresh.