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  1. Things will peak mid-late July in terms of capacity and chaos. Sadly people who need the beds will not get them(heart attack, car crash ete, elective surgeries are already toast). I think all young men under the age of 40 should not be treated by hospitals. That would free up plenty of room.
  2. Very nice heatwave. Little humidity, dry. The kind of pattern that showed up in July 1936 quite a bit I would guess. If we were as dry then, now, it would be pushing 100 quite a bit.
  3. People have impulse control of a dog. That is why the shutdowns sucked in the end. It was just random shutdowns with no national plan in place to contain the virus. Through math, I see about half of the US could become effected and a 3rd seriously effected. They ain't all old people either. You'll be scarred for life and in the low percentage worst case, dead. To be selfish is not patriotic.
  4. Disturbed by the long term damage young people are getting from this. This is where SARS is worse than the Flu in terms of its method.
  5. Coronavirus's are a little different than Influenza. Will be interesting to see what happens when UV weakens by August and viral loads increase. If it comes back and starts killing younger people at a greater clip, then research will adjust to the reality. Hopefully the current research holds.
  6. Being a new coronavirus, it will be interesting how it reacts to the dying sun angle over August. This is when influenza for example begins to repower back up, continuing into the fall. The sun uv light really knocks down viruses. But when the fall season begins, the virus will be ready to reemerge, even more violent, killing younger and younger people. This is why virus's like this need herd immunity, but forced herd immunity for everybody under 60. Everybody gets it now, will not get the worse version later. Should be public policy.
  7. The government has reduced the number of confirmed cases/deaths to try and make it look better. They did that in 1957 as well. There is nothing new under the sun on that one. China did it to such a level, it makes the US look honest. Governments lie so they don't look weak. Fact is, we had meetings at my business about the SARS disease effecting Wuhan China right the first Monday after Thanksgiving. We knew it was coming and it had spread global. China had it since late last summer but hoped it would burn out like 2003. It didn't. It was a much more infectious strain. Everybody else tried to ignore it as well, partly not to look weak and then get caught with a "crying wolf" accusations after a hypothetical buildup late in 2019 which would have reduced the outbreak.
  8. If the ridge is strong enough, it will shove off the cutoff. Key sampling to watch.
  9. You can see the evolution by then.
  10. The economy was declining anyway. Then the virus without restrictions would help that along. There was no way out. Another way of thinking about it, everything after November was corrupted with virus based decisions starting in December. Its effect is vast and wide due to the high infectious rate.
  11. UKMET with a much more seasonal solution. Wavelengths are moving fast. This isn't January(but idiots like the GFS can believe so).
  12. How would you rate your winter since 2015? 2015-16: mild 2016-17: very mild 2017-18: average 2018-19: average 2019-20: very mild The payback for 2013-14 has had a long window of pain.
  13. SARS type Viruses are hard to vaccinate. If they can get one that is 50% effective, that should be good enough.
  14. Whats left of North American crude(and South American fwiw) is expensive to refine. That is why real peak production occurred in 1970. The more you use of the sour, heavy stuff, the more expensive is should be, raising prices to match, which should eventually stop production when consumers say no more............but that is not what happened. Instead they ramped up production in 2017-18 despite not having pricing backing. It was done through funny finance. So this time, the sweet crude producers are going for the banks. Destroying credit lines will make them difficult to return until the price is high enough that large amounts of sour crude are needed again. Debt based finance is a ponzi scheme and frankly, a real economy destroyer.