Ander

First time level 3 in a while.

Elon university in alamance county just sent out an emergency alert of possible tornadoes sighted and to take shelter immediately.

18 minutes ago, bamabonners said:

All these hype clowns keep throwing out 2011, 2011, 2011, 2011...  The more you use it, the less weight it will carry.  Then, people get tired of it or ignore it.  Then, it comes across as fear mongering or hype.  Where way, it is ridiculous.  Just give the facts and keep the hype away... Some people have a genuine fear of weather and these types of reports don't help.  

As a weather noob, but political science and policy professional, I have some survey data (pandemic disrupted plans to publish) showing that the public does not get tired or ignore stuff when it turns out to be overhyped and wrong.  We focused on hurricane warnings and preparedness and found warnings that did not live up to the hype failed to diminish peoples willingness to prepare for and believe future warnings.

Still pouring in Durham NC.  No sign of snow yet.

1 minute ago, Snowacane said:

Damage in Hillsborough 

How are you faring in Chapel Hill?  Sounds like one was up by Weaver Dairy off of 40 and another up by 86.   I am down by Southpoint and it has been very quiet here so far, except for all the Tornado warnings on the phones and weather radio.

Tornado about 9 miles north and west of here.  Wild stuff.

All our rulers have apparently been turned into ninja swords or reinforcing pieces to box forts lol. 

Guesstimate of 8 inches in Durham NC by the Southpoint Mall.  Freezing rain now - pinging off the house non stop.  Few loud sounding gusts of wind rolling in.

Snowy morning in the southpoint area of Durham.

Hi all, I am more of a lurker here (for a decade or so lol).  I generally keep quiet because my expertise in a far different field and I just enjoy reading.  I did have a noob question, that is both for general knowledge purposes and also with an eye for my personal situation.  As a native New Englander who now lives about ten miles from RDU airport, the only things that really bother me in NC about weather are tornadoes and ice storms.   I have read a good bit about ice storms, but am unsure the extent to which the icing in this storm will have impacts.  From a layman's perspective, I understand snow, sleet, and freezing rain in general.  That being said, I have read estimates from model runs ranging from .10 to .70 inches of icing.  As I understand it, it is when the icing hits .25 the problems start and by .50 there are pretty widespread power outages around here.  Assuming this is correct, why has there been so little said about the icing potential of this storm in the Triangle?  Is there something with the expected mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain in this that would minimize that risk for trees, powerlines etc.  The only thing in 13 years in NC that has caused significant time without power here for us is ice storms.  It is something I never appreciated as a New Englander before moving south.  Thanks in advance for any replies and enjoy the snow :)

1 minute ago, thess said:

Formerly Southpoint here--I have a feeling we've DM'd or something during recent winter storms, your name looks familiar. I used to be over off Barbee/54, where all those townhouses have gone up now. 

For sure - I live in Chancellor's Ridge.

1 minute ago, thess said:

Friends and coworkers in Southpoint say they are out of power, but doing fine north of I-70 in east Durham (I need to update my board location). We got a couple of big gusts and that's been it so far. Well, and 3" of rain today IMBY.

I live about 1.25 miles from the mall - been pretty quiet here.

2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

all the RDU folks are gone lol.....either they are outside watching or they all lost power....

Still here - couple good bursts of serious wind but nothing crazy beyond that.

Meanwhile up at Elon they have been hard hit with the power out and multiple trees down on campus.  

https://www.elon.edu/E-Net/Article/167050

We just had about 12-15 minutes of some seriously gusty winds and an increase in rain.  It has now passed and is raining gently again and trees barely moving in Durham.

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Pretty boring in Raleigh so far. We will see what these backside winds do if they materialize here.

Same here in Southpoint corner of Durham.

Wild weather in Durham and Chapel Hill overnight with tornadoes, massive thunder storms, torrential rain, and significant flooding.  By mid afternoon the sun was out and Florence left behind this.

Tornado warning in Chapel Hill, Durham, Hillsborough area.  Just torrential rain most of the night and strong thunderstorms the last few hours.  WRAL just showed 3 inches an hour rainfall here.  Wild stuff.  Lots of flooding locally right in middle of kids going to school here.  Crazy the one day they have school is during the worst weather here.

4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Those poor folks in SeNC.  Look at the neverending fetch on radar.  They are getting destroyed with rain right now and likely for the 12 hours.  Easily another foot of rain.  Then they have to worry about how much falls west of them.  

Florence has left a very, very large mark on the state.

 

I worked down that way for several years, at UNCP in Robeson County.  So not a good place for flooding - terribly flat, the Lumber River right there, and such a economically down area of the state.  This corner of NC is pretty poor, but the people are some the greatest I have ever met in my life.  It might sound trite to say it, but it reminds me of growing up a long time ago where people looked out for each other, did the best with what they have, and the community was more than the person living next to you for a couple years.  If this goes as bad as it might, I would really suggest this be a place where focused donations be aimed.

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Getting more gusts over 50 here in Lumberton in that band. Very impressive wind swept rain with a number of small branches down. Not seeing any significant structural damage. 

folks down there are in my thoughts.  I taught at UNCP for a few years and fell in love with the people and area there.  Praying you guys get spared the worst of this.

Took a nice walk around my neighborhood in the Southpoint area of Durham, about 12 miles from RDU airport.  Breezy, fast moving clouds, no rain but it has sprinkled off and on this morning. 

In Durham, I went out for a ride this morning to see what was going on.  Tons of tree service and utility trucks staging here in parking lots.  I took a few pics from different parking lots (Home Depot on 15-501, Target @ Southpoint, Rise Donuts @ Southpoint, and a Hess gas station @ Southpoint and one on the road).

https://photos.app.goo.gl/pySFf4aBDFcAv3S17

8 hours ago, SENC said:

Wondering outloud here...  Here in Wilmington...

Our  Shelters are at Max Cap. and OVERFLOWING

Our City/County Emerg services are & have been SHIPPING The Locals, that are "overflowing the Shelters" here,,  to the Triangle/RDU & Durham...  BY BUS... By the Busload actually, LOTS of Buses..

Where are they putting those folks?

If ander420 is telling us is true, (I cannot fathom it isn't)..

WHERE are these Local Folks from HERE, being housed up there? Who are feeding them? 

HOW are they going to get back? There's been NO MENTION of this.. ANYWHERE... 

Just.. We are "shipping them "upstate",, Like Chattle.. 

Many, if NOT all, those folks in those Shelters from here,,,  are Homeless Folks, many with Drug addictions..

Ander420 is raising a very, very good question(s)...

 

MeanWhile... On My local radar...  VVVVV

W

Well my wife works at UNC Chapel Hill and in prior storms they took in lots of UNCW students.  They have some there now, not sure how many.  

I see the posts about overhyping.  I am by no means even knowledgeable enough to be dangerous discussing weather, but I do study and have worked in politics all my adult life.  In my corner of the triangle right now there are still gas lines, people evacuating, and water and essentials have been hard to find for days now.  All the schools are closed Thursday and Friday.  UNC basically shut down Tuesday evening and has been trying to get all their students to go home.  At Elon, where I work, they cancelled class and encouraged all students to go home beginning Tuesday.  At a school where 25 or so of the kids are from NC and many from the NE etc this isnt as easy as it sounds.  Tons of folks to fly out etc.  Overreaction yeah maybe, but with 7000 undergrads needing 3 meals a day if the power goes out thats 21000 meals a day on generator power.  No bueno. The school is not supposed to keep students on campus if they lose power, but local communities cannot absorb 7000 bodies in their shelters so they basically had no choice.

I dont know what the answer to this stuff is, but when you are hitting 5 days out or less and everything seems to be pointing one way and historic flooding, what do you do?  I feel bad for the people who are going to take a hit from this.  I am a bit of a prepper so I just needed a few things, but many people were making choices between bills and hurricane prep etc.  Its a tricky situation.  It doesnt feel good enough to just say better to be safe than sorry, but the alternative is?  I very much worry that most people will just tune out next time on this kind of stuff.

On a personal level, I have been in NC for 12 years now and havent even gotten a good kiss from a hurricane yet.  Weirdly, I felt more hurricane effects in Massachusetts than NC and thats depressing.

4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I get angry at this every time....especially on a weather board where people should know better and understand shifts do happen. 

 

It is is much better to inconvenience some people and be over prepared than have a catastrophic disaster and be under prepared. 

Look I am sensitive to all of this and not trying to be a dick about anything.  I have just never seen such buy in and worry about the fall out.  We cancelled 2 days of classes, basically a third and told parents and students to get the kids the heck out.  Flying your kid to California or Boston or Philly or Florida or Oregon is a big expense for a lot of people and not just an inconvenience.  The level of certainty in all this and how it was pitched (if it turns out wrong) is going to cause some significant problems that will eventually come back to bite people really hard.  That is all I am saying.  Personally, I have never seen folks in the Triangle take a storm more seriously in my years here.  The threat was clear, it was communicated clearly, understood, and acted upon.  The lack of doubts or possibilities along the way is going to leave a lot of folks angry and a lot of folks just not trusting this kind of stuff in the future.  My two cents.

7 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

Here in lay the problem for pretty much every NHC forecast. You've basically hit on the head why NHC doesn't make wild prediction swings based on every model run. If you cry wolf too far in advance, then people will not take proper care the next time. If you're too conservative, then people won't have time to prepare. Unfortunately atmospheric prediction is still a challenge even in these days of advanced computer models. If you're a professor and in the end the Triangle area gets nothing, I hope you teach your students that it was better to over prepare than to under prepare. In the end it will have cost them and you money and time, but that's ok. In today's "everything right now" society, it's ok to take a pause out of your life for safety rather than play on the edge of the knife.

I dont know man - our school has people from all over the country.  Asking families to spring for kids to fly out last minute to avoid a catastrophic hurricane and there is no hurricane makes every look bad.  I have never seen this level of preparation for a storm growing up in the northeast and in 12 years in NC.  The warnings were clear and for once people listened.  I think most people will tune out going forward.