"Losing the Arctic summer sea ice will accelerate the already rapid rate of Arctic warming, which will increase the rate of methane being emitted by the warming Arctic.
This emergency situation for survival
must go straight to the top of the global climate change agenda."
"Professor Peter Wadhams, on behalf of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, spoke about this critical issue at the December 2011 American Geophysical Union (AGU) conference in San Francisco, USA. Key elements of his talk have been widely reported, following an article in the UK's Independent newspaper. (Please find copies of this and subsequent articles attached.)
The substance of our concerns – and the basis for these media reports – is outlined in the attached 16-page document entitled Arctic Methane Alert. To summarise:
• The loss of Arctic summer sea ice and increased warming of the Arctic seas threaten methane hydrate instability and a massive catastrophic release of methane into the atmosphere, as noted in IPCC AR4.
• Research published by N. Shakhova* shows that methane is already venting into the atmosphere from seabed methane hydrates on the East Siberian Arctic shelf, or ESAS (the world's largest continental shelf), which, if allowed to escalate, would likely lead to abrupt and catastrophic global warming.
• The latest research expedition to the region (September/October 2011), according to Professor I. Semiletov, witnessed methane plumes on a "fantastic scale," "some one kilometer in diameter," "far greater" than previous observations, which were officially reported in 2010 to equal methane emissions from all the other oceans put together.
• The loss of Arctic summer sea ice and subsequent increased Arctic surface warming will inevitably increase the rate of methane emissions already being released from Arctic wetlands and thawing permafrost.
• The latest available data indicates there is a 5-10% possibility of the Arctic being ice free in September by 2013, more likely 2015, and with 95% confidence by 2018. This, according to the recognised world authorities on Arctic sea ice, Prof. Wadhams and Dr. Wieslaw Maslowski, is the point of no return for summer sea ice. Once past this point, it could prove impossible to reverse the retreat by any kind of intervention. The data indicate the Arctic could be ice free for six months of the year by 2020 (PIOMAS 2011)."
Ken Caldeira, Professor of Environmental Earth System Sciences, Stanford University, US;
Ed Dlugokencky, PhD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), US;
Michel Halbwachs, Professor of Physics, University of Savoie, France;
Veli Albert Kallio, Chairman of the Frozen Isthmuses’ Protection Campaign, UK/Finland;
Jon Egill Kristjansson, Professor of meteorology, Oslo University, Norway;
Mike MacCracken, PhD, Climate Institute, Washington, US;
David Mitchell, Associate Research Professor, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, DRI, US;
Brian Orr, PhD, former Principle Scientific Officer, Department of the Environment
Stephen Salter, Emeritus Professor of Engineering at Edinburgh University, UK;
Natalia Shakhova, PhD, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, US;
Igor Semiletov, PhD, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, US;
Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, Cambridge University, UK;
Leonid Yurganov, PhD, Dept of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada.
Skier, if you are going to accuse someone of "a complete lie", at least have something to back it up. Are you accusing these guys of making up a complete lie and sending it off to world leaders?
Vergent,
In the way you presented this comment and your concluding sentence directed at Skier, you are implying that the scientists you listed were effectively signatories to the AMEG's position statement.
However this isn't at all clear from the acknowledgements on the AMEG site. You omitted a crucial part (highlighted):
So, advice was sought and obtained from these individuals, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they fully support the AMEG's objectives and share the same concerns.
Is there another page on the site that I've missed where it makes it clear that all these scientists are members of the AMEG?
This is not good.
in Climate Change
Posted
Vergent,
In the way you presented this comment and your concluding sentence directed at Skier, you are implying that the scientists you listed were effectively signatories to the AMEG's position statement.
However this isn't at all clear from the acknowledgements on the AMEG site. You omitted a crucial part (highlighted):
So, advice was sought and obtained from these individuals, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they fully support the AMEG's objectives and share the same concerns.
Is there another page on the site that I've missed where it makes it clear that all these scientists are members of the AMEG?