thewxmann
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Posts posted by thewxmann
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Meh, from the storm chasing perspective all I can hope for are a few good storms (especially since we're still in a background state that favors less western troughiness). With SWly flow atop a very moist warm sector in late May, we should get at least one or two quality storms. Outbreak not looking as likely, but at least we're not seeing a death ridge.
The wrench in all this is we could have a few days ruined by crapvection -- the long SW fetch in the mid-upper levels would imply interaction with the southern stream and its associated, ill-timed disturbances. With such a moist and unstable warm sector, and lack of a hotter EML, any subtle southern stream disturbance could touch off a morning MCS. Too early to get into details about this, however.
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Yeah. This 00Z run of the GFS is the best one yet as far as the parameterized environment goes--pretty insane across the board with everything, nuts to see widespread 6+ 0-1KM EHI's, and widespread 500+ 0-3K SRH. Still feel the trough is a bit too slow tho, and there is a pretty substantial amount of CIN. It's funny because last year, we could hardly get any events with an EML to hold things off, then this year on the first possible big event, we get a big time cap. But feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on those.
Cap shouldn't be a big issue, we have a negatively tilted trough with main forcing for ascent arriving well-timed with peak heating. This is almost about as good as a model run gets for a Plains setup.
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Take this with a grain of salt, but...
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Accuweather seems to like Spring 1983, 1987, 1998, 2007 for analog years based on this:
2007 x2
1987 x2
1983 x2
1998 x1
Hmm 1987 vs. 2007/1998. Lots of range there for the chase season.
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It looks like the GFS has some disturbance in the STJ that limits moisture return. Either way it's very difficult to tell this far out. The ejecting trough has been looking impressive for a few runs now.
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Forget about severe weather, TX and OK are going to be underwater by the end of next weekend. That's going to be the bigger news over the next week.
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Re: the whole issue with Galena. From what I've read, it takes a few minutes to generate a warning. The forecasters were probably still writing the warning when the 5:38 scan came out. Notice that there were only three minutes between the 2nd (5:39) and 3rd (5:42) SVS's. This may be due to the fact that the forecasters noticed that the couplet was closer to Joplin than it was to Galena. I think the important part is that the 5:39 SVS mentions the tornado is moving into Joplin. That should be enough to sound any on-air met's alarms. Furthermore, on-air mets should check the radars themselves and know what's going on. I haven't read the book, but again the title of it implies the warning system failed, which, IMO, it did not.
There was not a single tornado emergency issued -- the SVS's I posted were all the ones associated with Tornado Warning #31.
I think, in general, the timescales associated with this particular event (i.e. the time of evolution from doppler-warned to confirmed to particularly dangerous tornado) were much shorter than average, shorter than the radar period or warning-writing timescale.
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This raises the question - was it a mistake? Were they playing the odds on where the tornado was located based on radar and conflicting other reports? The storm evolved so fast that they did not know what was going on? They had spotter reports indicating a tornado in an area that their radar wasn't even showing the tornado - yet?
I don't know what was going on.
If spotters reported the tornado near Joplin - did the NWS believe them on the location? Did someone assume that the spotter was wrong and the tornado was actually further north (or according to that statement - 6 miles northeast of Galena)
I doubt that's it. It's hard to go against 200 kt couplet with debris ball. My thinking is the forecaster put the location as "Joplin" in AWIPS, which spat out an alternate location of "6 NE Galena". The Downtown Joplin *dot* is in fact north and east of the central Galena *dot*, and that's all that AWIPS has. In the whole confusion during that time, and dealing with multiple TORs in close proximity, the forecaster(s) may have not paid as much attention to that error, or they may have felt it would take to long to correct, given the urgency of the situation.
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My take on this.
1) SW side of Joplin/Iron Gates had had minimum 15-20 min lead time, using the 5:38 PM radar image posted above and the fact the relevant TOR was issued at 5:17.
2) The first relevant TOR indicated that the storm was moving NE, which was ultimately incorrect, however while the storm was still in its fledgling stage this may have been a valid extrapolation of the motion. In their formation stages, supercells often move with the mean wind at a rapid clip, before sharply turning right and slowing down as the updraft matures (but not always!). So, until we are more sure with our science, and given the software that's in use, extrapolated motion's the best we got. Of course everything is clearer in hindsight.
3) The SVS's correct the initial TORs and give a correct heading -- except for the last one.
3) The cities impacted -- Iron Gates, Joplin, and Duquesne, are mentioned in every SVS as well as the initial relevant TOR -- except for the last one WRT Duquesne.
4) I agree that there is this (dare I say it?) --myth-- about the tornado forming right over town. There was a good chunk of time between spotter confirmation and tornado doing damage in Joplin. I think by the second SVS, a tornado emergency may have been justified, given the confirmation and the statement that the tornado was in fact moving straight into town.
So the only thing I would have a beef with is SGF's 5:42 SVS, but by then the tornado was over the city and doing damage so it doesn't really matter as much. I also agree that the proximity of the two TORs may have confused media. Many things could've been done better, but the warning system hardly 'failed' Joplin.
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Re: the tornado warnings on that day...Judge for yourself....
Tornado Warning #30 for western/nrn sides of Joplin:
509 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.
* AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF CARL JUNCTION...OR 6 MILES EAST OF
COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AIRPORT DRIVE...ALBA...ASBURY...ATLAS...
BROOKLYN HEIGHTS...CARL JUNCTION...CARTERVILLE...LAKESIDE...NECK
CITY...NORTHEASTERN JOPLIN...OAKLAND PARK...ORONOGO...PURCELL...
WACO AND WEBB CITY.
#31, for srn sides of Joplin:
517 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.
* AT 514 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR RIVERTON...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF BAXTER SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BAXTER SPRINGS...CLIFF VILLAGE...DENNIS
ACRES...DIAMOND...DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...FIDELITY...GALENA...IRON
GATES...JOPLIN...LEAWOOD...LOWELL...REDINGS MILL...RIVERTON...
SAGINAW...SHOAL CREEK DRIVE...SHOAL CREEK ESTATES...SHOAL CREEK
ESTATE AND SILVER CREEK.
1st Follow-up SVS for the second TOR:
530 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN NEWTON...SOUTHWESTERN JASPER AND SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES...
AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO NEAR RIVERTON...OR NEAR GALENA...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH. THIS STORM HAS AS HISTORY OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD IN
RIVERTON KANSAS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CLIFF VILLAGE...DENNIS ACRES...DIAMOND...
DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...FIDELITY...GALENA...IRON GATES...JOPLIN...
LEAWOOD...LOWELL...REDINGS MILL...RIVERTON...SAGINAW...SHOAL CREEK
DRIVE...SHOAL CREEK ESTATES...SHOAL CREEK ESTATE AND SILVER CREEK.
2nd SVS:
539 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN NEWTON...SOUTHWESTERN JASPER AND SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES...
AT 534 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
GALENA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS MOVING INTO THE CITY
OF JOPLIN.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CLIFF VILLAGE...DENNIS ACRES...DIAMOND...
DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...FIDELITY...GALENA...IRON GATES...JOPLIN...
LEAWOOD...LOWELL...REDINGS MILL...RIVERTON...SAGINAW...SHOAL CREEK
DRIVE...SHOAL CREEK ESTATES...SHOAL CREEK ESTATE AND SILVER CREEK.
3rd SVS, for both storms:
542 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
JASPER COUNTY...
...A TORNADO WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FOR NORTHERN
NEWTON...SOUTHEAST CHEROKEE COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES...
AT 538 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
JOPLIN...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF GALENA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AIRPORT DRIVE...ALBA...ATLAS...BROOKLYN
HEIGHTS...CARL JUNCTION...CARTERVILLE...LAKESIDE...NECK CITY...
NORTHEASTERN JOPLIN...OAKLAND PARK...ORONOGO...PURCELL AND WEBB CITY.
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From the Rainsville/Sylvania tornado?
Two from Rainsville (bringing total from that tornado to 25), one from near Higdon (bringing total from that tornado to 14).
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FWIW, three additional fatalities were added on to the list a few days ago after some recounting in Dekalb County.
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Smithville: A steel culvert buried underneath a road was actually pulled up through the earth and asphalt and thrown, leaving a section of the road and ground missing. I heard that 3 people were killed when a concrete above ground safe room was torn away. Lots of foundation sweeping.
Phil Campbell/Hackleburg/Tanner: A car was wrapped around a tree and pavement was scoured. Countless homes were swept away, some of which actually had their concrete slabs cracked and scoured. Don't read this next park if you are squeamish...the body count for this one was made difficult because a lot of the victims were found in multiple pieces.
That was Rainsville. But yes, the EF5 damage from the 4/27 tornadoes was incredible. The Smithville, Hackleburg, and esp. Phil Campbell/Mt. Hope damage was probably some of the more violent (E)F5 damage I've seen. Underground shelters were left exposed. Only 18 homes in Smithville were completely destroyed, but in those there were 16 fatalities. I have heard similarly, that in some areas of Phil Campbell and Rainsville, being in the center of the tornado path without a safe room essentially meant you did not survive. The amount of small debris that was scattered for up to a mile (!) from the source in the Rainsville aerials is incredible.
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Wasn't the HS graduation at the time of the tornado? That would account for why so many people weren't home when the tornado hit. It reminds me of how the highway in San Fran collasped but because of the World Series in 1989; traffic was light.
Nope; in fact, at least one of the fatalities (Will Norton) was a recent HS graduate who was driving back from the graduation when the tornado hit.
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It is so damn sad that so many people who survived this horrific tornado are now succumbing to their injuries. I hope this is about the last of it, and I hope nearly everybody else who is injured is able to pull through and recover. Just a damn shame, especially for the families and friends. I guess this is to be expected with this tornado, but it still sucks.
Very sad... I sure hope the death toll stops rising. This is very unusual, in many tornadoes the death toll usually stabilizes after a week. Maybe this says something about cause of injury/death for many people.
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Very important line from the above article:
Wagenmaker said it is possible that the findings from Joplin could be tied to a similar survey that was conducted in Tuscaloosa, Ala., after a powerful tornado struck there in April.Although I'd like to see separate service assessments from 4/27 and Joplin, I definitely could see them clumping all the severe storms this spring into one, especially since there are at least four disasters (4/14-16, 4/27, Joplin, and the MS River Floods) from this spring that could be assessed.
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Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the damage path of the tornado has been extended to 22.1 miles.
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Hmmm. Do you think they'll settle on a specific value at some point?
Sure hope so. I don't think it will be 220-250 mph or whatever was being thrown around though... if the NWS had decided on a windspeed like that, they would've issued a statement by now.
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Is that the same as "greater than 210 mph"?
Have they settled on an official peak value for Joplin yet?
my bad, did not read the "fine print' there. The latest PNS from Joplin, issued on May 29, still retains the max wind speeds as "greater than 200 mph".
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Wow-- winds greater than 210 mph. That's the highest EF scale assessment I've seen yet. Greensburg and Parkersburg were both 205 mph.
Phil Campbell-Mt. Hope was rated to be 210 mph.
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Yep.
Personally, whenever I see a shot of a neighborhood mowed down, my assumption is always F4/EF4 unless the engineers on the ground specifically cite instances of EF5 damage. In this case (Joplin), the survey team determined at least four EF5 instances, whereas in Tuscaloosa, they didn't find any. It just goes to show that we can't tell just looking at a few photos.
The popular litmus test-- "Was the house swept off its foundation?"-- isn't even sufficient evidence in itself, as we saw in La Plata, MD.
Back to Joplin... I really do hope they do some very detailed plotting of the damage-- so we can see just how extreme this event was.
From what I've heard, construction standards in the Southeastern U.S. are much weaker than construction standards in the Midwest/Heartland... I think that may have made the difference here.
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The whole thing on the Joplin tornado just blows my mind. I know its not impossible because it has happened in Joplin. How is it that a tornado of this magnitude live for not even 10 minutes, be on the ground for only 7 miles, max out at EF5 over Joplin, and destroy that beautiful city? I mean it is just beyond my comprehension how a tornado could destroy that much of that city and kill over 100 people in such little time. It is just truly scary and unthinkable.
On a tangent sorta kinda-- but the path length of the tornado has been extended to 13 miles.
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Tornado wind estimates are 3-sec gusts.
Hurricane Maria
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
The portion of Cuba that Irma traversed is flat. 4500 ft will absolutely disrupt Maria. Dominica is a small island with 4500 feet peaks and it disrupted Maria for awhile.