AtticaFanatica
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Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri
AtticaFanatica replied to Hoosier's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Also, I'd suggest reading Wurman et al. (2007), in which the authors use realistic models of violent tornadoes and previous fatality information to estimate worse case scenarios in populated areas. It's a reasonable attempt at an admittedly complex hypothetical scenario, but it shows just how bad tornadoes in urban areas potentially could be. It's just not a pretty situation. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-88-1-31 -
Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri
AtticaFanatica replied to Hoosier's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You can engage me directly, it's simpler, I don't bite. Obviously, there are things that can be improved upon in relaying information. However, given the state of that information, current implemented radar technology, where the tornado formed, how strong it was, and where it struck, I don't believe there are many more lives that could have been saved. I realize this will never be a popular opinion because people always want someone to blame. In this case, the drive to do so is not surprising, but the evidence used to do so is inadequate. -
Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri
AtticaFanatica replied to Hoosier's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The inability for humans to accept that, sometimes, life sucks and **** happens is at play more in this case than any other I can remember. -
Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri
AtticaFanatica replied to Hoosier's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
For what? -
Reconsider majoring in meteorology!
AtticaFanatica replied to stormguy80's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think we all get what he meant. -
Reconsider majoring in meteorology!
AtticaFanatica replied to stormguy80's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes. -
Reconsider majoring in meteorology!
AtticaFanatica replied to stormguy80's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I agree with you but there are probably better and more effective ways to state your cause than minimizing others. -
Reconsider majoring in meteorology!
AtticaFanatica replied to stormguy80's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
In most M.S. programs, you're given a tuition waiver and a stipend, so it shouldn't further your student debt. -
Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri
AtticaFanatica replied to Hoosier's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes, width information is kept in Storm Data, for example. However, as with wind speed estimations, I think the error bars on the width estimations likely preclude deriving anything of value from them on an individual basis. -
Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri
AtticaFanatica replied to Hoosier's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's pretty much impossible to gauge how wide individual tornadoes are using just visual and damage indicators. I wouldn't put much, if any, weight to declarations of this or that tornado being the widest. -
Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri
AtticaFanatica replied to Hoosier's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Well yeah. -
Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri
AtticaFanatica replied to Hoosier's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Exactly -
Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri
AtticaFanatica replied to Hoosier's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
If there's no structure/DI deemed strong enough to withstand winds >210 mph, then that's all they can estimate. It's an inherent limitation to the rating process and why the wind estimates, particularly in EF-5 tornadoes, tell one very little. -
Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri
AtticaFanatica replied to Hoosier's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Not with an accuracy level I'd feel comfortable with, no. -
Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri
AtticaFanatica replied to Hoosier's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
EF scale ratings have error bars large enough, let alone any actual wind value estimates. I would have little to no confidence in the validity of a comparison between two tornadoes based on the wind estimates that result from a damage-based tornado survey.
