Down The Rabbit Hole

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 12z NAM seems to be trending in the right direction for the Austin area.

What effect might downslope winds off the mountains of western Cuba have on the dry air we saw Ida struggling with today?

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

I understand that they missed the true-center to the south by a little bit.. But this is not exactly the most impressive eye dropsonde -- speaks to the structural/organization troubles Ida has had today wrt intensifying at a greater clip. For some reason the core has really struggled to become better organized/tight today, not sure why really. Not something we are going to be able to diagnose easily without the HH radar readily available. 

Dry air - you can see it in the WV loops

What's the chance we get a "Storm Surge Emergency" out of this, especially if Calcasieu/Lake Charles catches the eastern EW? Or would they just include that in a standard Flash Flood Emergency?

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

 

That's not looking good for you. Hope you can make arrangements for a later date. Though you would rather be on left side of track than right at this point with an advancing trough, as any shift in future track would likely be east vs west. Hopefully Michael isn't bad for Seaside but if surge/wind is bad it may be next week at the earliest due to inundation of low lying areas and power outages due to downed trees.

We have travel insurance so the financial impact is limited. I’m driving, so I don’t have to deal with the airlines either.

Really hoping this takes a sharp right turn and hits the Big Bend (weakened to a TS, of course)

Supposed to be in Seaside on Thursday. How many days does it usually take to call off the evacuation?

Reminding me a bunch of Ike so far, especially this last bit of unexpected restrengthening