Crazieman

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Posts posted by Crazieman


  1. 1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

    It looks like the 18Z ECMWF is a hair west.

    Not liking westward turns.  Keeps pushing its eventual landfall remains in its northward turn over Kansas and we have way, way too much flooding already.


  2. Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

    Yeah you can’t do that.  Sometimes if you have a great view of the very bottom of the base you can gauge if it’s weak or strong based on how fast it’s rotating but I believe a few years ago there was a 1/8th mile wide EF5 in Manitoba  

    That was Elie, and it was pretty apparent it was a violent drillbit by the motion.


  3. 3 minutes ago, Quincy said:

    The low-level shear is not very favorable in the SW portion of the watch. Seems odd, but maybe it was a CYA decision for that cell going up. Regardless, the environment becomes increasingly favorable for significant severe with northeastward extent, especially from OKC metro and points northeast. 

    PDS for a single cell?

    Is this like maintaining High Risk on Monday for a single cell?

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  4. Just now, iowahawkeyedave said:

    Isn't this due to the "Plainfield Syndrome", where it's better to issue too many warnings and risk getting a few wrong, rather than underwarn and miss something critical?

    Well, we could compare NWO's.  Wichita is notorious for not issuing warnings.


  5. 4 minutes ago, MUWX said:

    Most of the time I agree, but almost everyone was calling for a potentially historic. NWS, SPC, News outlets, Twitter mets... everyone... and it totally busted. That has impact on people, especially when in general, meteorologists aren't trusted to begin with.

    We're a bit insulated in the met community to our technicals.

    The dismissal of public perception and reception happens too often. 


  6. Haven't been here in a while - but something strange passed over Wichita and was very pronounced on both BV 0.5 KICT and TICH.  Best described as a "ripple" starting at 23:20Z to present approached from the southwest and ran over the city producing some interesting wind effects.

    Anyone have an idea of what it was?  I've never seen anything like it, strongly resembled a still shot of a bullet going through the air.

    Edit: NWS Wichita calling it a wake low event.


  7. 47 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

    The 0z NAM not only holding slower with the ejection Wed, but also has the LLJ displaced east of the dry line.

    Not a good situation if that pans out.


    .

    Good ol' reliable Wichita pouring cold water on it as well, citing conditionality.

    Was hoping for a birthday tornado, central KS has been dry for years.  Chases have been pretty boring other than hail dents.