Mitchel Volk

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That could quite possibly be more historic  than 2001-02 but I wasn't alive then lol.  Were you in Oceanside for 1997-98 and 2001-02 too?  How would you rank the three?  I guess I would toss 2011-12 in there too but we had over an inch in October so I keep that apart from the record low snowfall winters.

No I was at Lyndon state colleges by 1974 the University of WI from 78 to 8@ then Brooklyn ever since.

In 1973 Oceanside LI had no snow measurable until mid March when there was a tons of thunderstorms with S+ at times got a couple of inches before the changeover to sleet and rain.  The snow started in the evening and by the time I woke it it was bare ground.  The only other snow that year was a brief snow flurry in February.

Snowing in Cobble Hill again around 3” today

7 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Yeah I was living out on LI for the ‘94 one, but I don’t recall seeing any footage of ice accretion in NYC. I’d imagine it must be pretty tough to get that in a major urban center like Manhattan. Was it unusually cold at the surface in ‘73?

Yes my parents return to Oceanside LI where I grew up with 2 inches of ice in the car and Oceanside had just rain.  In 1994 NYC had snow and sleet.  But when I did field work and went to Staten Island everythwas glazed in about .5” of ice, it was beautiful 

1 minute ago, Eduardo said:

When’s the last time Manhattan had a legit ice storm?

1973 was an incredible ice storm for NYC, 1994 Staten Island had one

1 minute ago, Mitchel Volk said:

Intel’s after 12Z not much for NYC

NAM/WRF 40Km FORECAST FOR: NYC    LAT=  40.77 LON=  -73.98 ELE=    89

                                             7P JAN28
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI  7P 28-JAN  -0.4    -8.0    1017      88      87             540     526    
SAT  1A 29-JAN  -3.0    -7.3    1013      92      88    0.09     538     528    
SAT  7A 29-JAN  -8.6    -9.6    1005      89      88    0.36     529     526    
SAT  1P 29-JAN  -8.2   -11.4    1003      86      88    0.12     524     522    
SAT  7P 29-JAN  -8.9   -11.0    1004      61      83    0.05     523     519    
SUN  1A 30-JAN                                                                  
SUN  7A 30-JAN                                                                  
SUN  1P 30-JAN                                                                  
SUN  7P 30-JAN                                                                  
MON  1A 31-JAN                                                                  
MON  7A 31-JAN                                                                  
MON  1P 31-JAN                                                                  
MON  7P 31-JAN                                                                  
TUE  1A 01-FEB                                                                  
TUE  7A 01-FEB                                                                  

Exclusive Benefits

 

 

ISP des much better

AM/WRF 40Km FORECAST FOR: ISP    LAT=  40.78 LON=  -73.10 ELE=    98

                                             7P JAN28
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI  7P 28-JAN  -0.4    -6.5    1017      84      89             541     527    
SAT  1A 29-JAN  -1.4    -5.7    1012      95      89    0.17     539     530    
SAT  7A 29-JAN  -5.4    -8.2    1002      92      89    0.62     531     529    
SAT  1P 29-JAN  -9.4    -8.4     999      89      88    0.47     522     523    
SAT  7P 29-JAN  -7.8    -9.8    1001      63      87    0.20     521     520    
SUN  1A 30-JAN -11.9   -11.5    1007      61       7    0.00     523     518

Looks further east on the 18Z NAM.  

Just now, Mitchel Volk said:

 

 

Overall the last few runs except the GFS has been amazing consistent maybe a shift of a few miles but not much.  So it will be interesting to see if they continue this or start a shift in a direction the next few runs.  The cutoff is so intense, where ISP may see 18” while northern Orange County get very little with the city on the edge.  Any little shift will make a huge difference especially at 500MB for the city.  Right now I’m thinking 6-12”

17 hours ago, USCG RS said:

You work with NYC OEM correct? Maybe not for them.. but hand in hand, no? 

17 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

Might be a good day to call out sick! 

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

Might be a good day to call out sick! 

No way, that’s the challenge and the fun, yes stressful but fun.

6 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

You work with NYC OEM correct? Maybe not for them.. but hand in hand, no? 

No sanitation, Joshua Rapp works for OEM

Wow you see most of the 00Z short range models trend to the west.  Then the GFS trends way east, boy this is a tough forecast.  Hopefully by tomorrow 9:30 things come into better agreement for my next official forecast for my job at sanitation.  

NAM good up to 48-60hrs after that toss out, professionally speaking.

I believe it’s still too early to forecast amounts.  Too much of the forecast is still in the air,

Except for the NAM the models have been very consistent with little 50mils shifts.  So at this time it is still really hard to pinpoint the storm effects over NYC.  We see who wins ECMWF or the others.

Looks like the Gefs are just about the same as the 18Z run, however there is a good chunk to the south and west at very low central pressure so the GFS runs may go further west in the future it’s way too early to tell.  

The 850 MB 18Z low is significantly deeper than the 12 Z ECMWF run and in the same position.  An interesting trend

The later one.  I remember the the long range 72 prog forecasted it and we at Lyndon State College we’re impressed by the model performance.  Boy have times have change.

It’s kinda of looking like the 1978 storm.  The only difference is the phasing while the 78 storm was formed by incredible digging this storm may have both.   Of course things can change, but this is interesting for sure.

The windshield wiper effect is in effect.  This is more favorable than a continued west trend towards an inland runner.  So the actual track is more likely up the coast not inland.  So NYC may see some snow or a lot is still in question, the chance for mainly rain has decreased 

Remember it’s only Monday.  A lot can change, thou I do think it will be stormy with snow or a changeover at the coast.  Don’t forget the March storm a few years back where it had it east, then a blizzard then mainly rain and Albany get the blizzard.

Still way to early to tell.  

All rain here in Cobble Hill Brooklyn got about an inch.