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lester

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  1. mcd0019.gif

    SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow now developing across parts of
       central Virginia and Maryland is expected to persist through mid to
       late morning, with rates (around or in excess of 1 inch per hour)
       likely maximizing in the 6-10 AM EST time frame.
    
       DISCUSSION...A broadly cyclonic 50-70+ kt 500 mb jet streak
       continues to gradually develop eastward across the northern Gulf
       Coast states, with its exit region now beginning to nose to the lee
       of the southern Appalachians, toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast
       through mid to late morning.  It appears an associated broad area of
       strong upward vertical motion will include a period of strengthening
       lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis across Virginia and adjacent
       portions of the Mid Atlantic.
    
       Across central Virginia into adjacent portions of central Maryland,
       where temperature profiles are expected to remain entirely below
       freezing, models indicate that lift may begin to become maximized
       within the favorable mixed-phase layer for dendritic ice crystal
       growth by daybreak, and continue through mid to late morning.  Aided
       by relatively high precipitable water content (up to around .70
       inches), one or more bands of heavy snow, at rates around or in
       excess of 1 inch per hour, appear possible.  Forecast soundings
       suggest that this may persist for a 3-4 hour period at any
       particular location, generally in a narrow corridor from the
       vicinity of the Blue Ridge, north of Roanoke VA, east/northeastward
       through southern portions of the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore
       Metropolitan Area.

     

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