NJwinter23

Great storm. I do remember being a bit pissed at the beginning when the dry air kept eating away at the onset of the system...It took FOREVER for the snow to start that day, it finally began by late afternoon, and I knew we had likely missed out on the historic snowfall chances by that point in New Brunswick, NJ. We were modelled on the huge gradient so I thought it still could go either way day of. 11" later in new brunswick, but 18-22 one county to the south and east.

But Will Models for 05 were pretty set at least a week before hand outside of the GFS. I know because a friend of mine who knew ABSOLUTELY Nothing about weather, told me 7 days prior, that a Big Blizzard was coming a week from then. I"ll never forget that. I asked him "how do you know something about a snowstorm that I don't?" to which he replied "I don't know, the weather guy was saying it, some big snowstorm next weekend....". Then the Blizzard of 2005 occurred, and I had 27" at my house. Whoever that Weather Guy was, was looking at models, and felt Confident enough to talk about it on TV.

The way I recall the model drama for Jan. 05 storm... models 5+ days out had a major snowstorm for the northeast (the euro stands out here). There was the beastly vort max expected to drop down from Canada, but I also believe the long range models had it phasing with a southern vort max which was referred to as the "Baja low" in the southern stream. The models then began to ditch the idea of these two systems phasing as the Baja low closed off and decided it would hang out over, well, the Baja...The storm threat completely fell apart as I recall from the day~2-5 range as the northern vort was no longer digging south enough and it basically trended to a crap clipper on the models...Then in the short range everything started to come back, and we had just another instance where each model run got better and better as we got closer, to the point where 24 hours out we were staring at a HECS.

Loved that storm down here in coastal Jersey where we had 16 inches. Most of the damage (10 inches) came with the warm air advection punch on that Saturday, It got briefly dicey that evening as the back edge of that precip neared with the 850 low, the temp spiked to 32 and a change over was 5 miles from my house. Then in the nick of time temps began to crash again and we caught the beginning stages of the CCB late that night and Sunday morning. Dropped a windswept, cold fluffy 6 inches to top things off.

no it clearly says 2.48 miles...another decimal point error? Or is this the same supercell and tornado that moved into AL and will get rated by a seperate office too?

If its not the same tornado then we could have at least 3 EF5's , this one, N al if it is upgraded and I'm assuming the tucs/BHM one too

It is hard to imagine a tornado spinning up EF5 damage that quickly, though I am no expert on the subject. These storms were moving 60+mph at times though so were talking about a 2 1/2 minute tornado that created EF5 destruction? Wow if that's the case. Looking at a map it would appear this could have been part of the same long track supercell that devestated Hackleburg and moved towards Huntsville?

Here is my detailed recount of the March 4-6, 2001debacle.

There's a lot of "stories" behind it. First off, almost all guidance was going for a monster Mid-Atlantic HECS about 96-108 hours out. Back then the time range beyond 96h meant very little...but models actually did have it further out than that. Only a few model went further. The UKMET, ECMWF and the MRF (the extension of the AVN which is now the GFS all in one package) all called for it. By the time we got to 84 hours out, all models showed it still...basically 2-4 feet for DC-NYC with Boston getting fringed....except the old ETA-x....the old ETA went to 60 hours, but the "ETA-x" was the ETA to 84h which eventually became the NAM (run under the ETA) to 84 hours but is now run under the WRF and not the ETA anymore...ETA has been retired from operational use, only used in the SREF now. That run of the ETA-x had the storm much further north and crushing New England while limiting the snow in the Mid-Atlantic. I believe this was Friday at 12z. Nobody took it seriously as it was the ETA extended beyond its already 60h limit.

The next run at 00z Friday night, the ETA-x showed it again, but the other models held serve....the ECMWF didn't run at 00z back then...only at 12z, so its solution was non-existent. It was the best model back then too like recent years. We were now at 72h out or closer. The 12z runs came out on Saturday morning and they shifted north, limiting the snow for DC (probably from 2-3 feet to about 1-2 feet), but from Wilmington DE northward it was still monstrous except the UKMET shifted slightly north of that, to Philly and northward.

A little side note. The AVN had performed absolutely brilliantly in the other big east coast storm on December 30, 2000 and also on the December 3, 2000 North Carolina/Virginia bust. The ETA hadbeen way too bullish and far west in both events while the AVN schooled it. So a lot of attention and credence was being given the AVN. That was a big factor in the forecast IMHO.

After those Saturday morning runs at 12z (while the ETA showed a huge hit north again at 48-60h now in the operational run)...the forecast was still for a monster M.A. hit. The 12z ECMWF wouldn't come out until around 8pm that evening. It used to come around at that time back then. As 8pm rolled around, the ECMWF all of the sudden jumped way north and agreed with the ETA solution. But most forecasters disregarded it as it had been pretty steadfast before (maybe a burp run?) and the AVN was holding really steady and it had done so well on East Coast storms that winter. By Saturday night, the GGEM started to go north, the AVN held serve once again (having been the model of choice all winter), the ETA went north again taking Philly and nearly NYC out of the huge snow and hammering New England/Boston with a storm like Feb 1978. UKMET I don't recall what happened, but I know the forecast stuck close to the AVN.

Again there was no 00z ECMWF run back then. Only 12z.

By 12z Sunday morning just 24h before the event, the AVN once again gave a monster hit to the mid-atlantic except it shifted a bit north...it was mostly Philly northward. The ETA gave New England a huge HECS again, the GGEM finally went well north...and so did the UKMET. The ECMWF would have to wait until 8pm as usual. Most forecaster were trusting the AVN because it had served them well that winter after the obscene ETA busts and the AVN had nailed two major east coast storms.

When 8pm came in, the writing was on the wall if there was any doubt left. It was way north and took Philly and possibly even NYC out fo the big snows, though NYC was still on the line.

The forecasts started being revived when the 00z AVN came in late that Sunday night and it finally jumped north, but still not far enough....it still gave big snows to Philly (but not historic totals) and historic totals to NYC. I think this is when most operational forecasters knew something was terribly wrong. You have to remember it was so hard to trust any model that winter and the AVN was the best until that point.

That was the first storm that I recall Dave Tolleris (whether you like him or not) came up with the old "EE rule"...when the ETA and ECMWF (both start with "E") agree, you don't go against them. I was lurking on ne.weather back then. When the EC came north to agree with the ETA back on Saturday, he said the M.A. was cooked and got a lot of crap for it on the boards as you can imagine.

That's just my personal recollection of all of that storm. I don't claim for all of it to be 100% accurate, but I usually remember things very vividly, so I think at least most of it is right. There was a lot of controversy and talk amongst the weather people both on ne.weather and the NWS back then. It ended up being a huge interior New England and NY State HECS. Even the models at the last second kind of busted at Boston...only getting 10" while they were forecasted for double that...but the suburbs got all the snow.

Very incredible storm both from a forecasting standpoint and also as a student observer back then when I first learning a lot of the intricacies of forecasting and models.

Will,

Your recollection of the AVN and ETA runs leading up to that storm within 96/60hrs respectively line up well with the data I got to look at for my case study on the storm I did about a year ago. Interesting to hear how the other global models performed though as I did not get to examine that data.

Looking at the gempak images i generated...

3/3/01 00z ETA

-48hr: 996mb over se NC, .5-.75 qpf across DC to Baltimore, .25 up to NYC

-60hr: 984mb well east of Delmarva, HECS ongoing Philly to NYC right to the coast with 1.5 qpf max over se NJ, another .5-.75 for DC-Baltimore

3/3/01 12z ETA

-36hr: 992mb over western NC, 996mb extention to the coast, .5-.75+ blob now from central Kentucky through to Garrett county Maryland, nw of dc-bmore

-48hr: 988mb over Salsbury MD, .75-1.00" from LI across all of northern NJ back to central PA down to nw DC/Bmore suburbs with those cities right on the .75 line. 850 0c line now inland across se NJ with only .25 qpf for them. Big nw shift.

-60hr: 984mb east of NJ, SNE getting blasted, the CCB extending south across with .5-.75 across northern NJ down eastern PA, dryslot along NYC and the coast

3/4/01 00z ETA

-24hr: 1000mb over western NC inverted extensions towards eastern NC and north into Ohio Valley. .5 qpf blob from philly back west to Ohio Valley, DC.Bmore on the fringe and also with the 850 0c line over them.

-36hr: 992mb over Salsbury, 850 0c line northwest of DC-Philly ands just south of NYC now. But qpf max now located over State College PA, with .5 extending east to northween NJ/NYC

-48hr: 988mb east of NJ , New England back into upstate NY now getting blasted with only .25-.75 NYC to Philly. 850 0c line across Cape Cod

3/4/01 12z ETA

-12hr: 1000mb over western NC, qpf max across western PA, .5-.75 across DC/Bmore to Philly, 850 0c line north of these cities

-24hr: broad 996mb from eastern NC to Delmarva, qpf max central PA up to Albany, all of NJ less then .5 qpf, less then .25 qpf Philly-DC, 850 line NYC to northwest of Philly/DC

-36hr: 984mb east of NJ, but dry area less than .25 over eastern NJ/NYC, New England through uopstate NY south to nw PA get heavier qpf

3/5/01 00z ETA

-12hr: broad 996mb on Delmarva, 850 line across the big cities with less than .25 qpf for everybody,heavy snow central PA through Binghampton/Albany

-24hr: 984mb just south of LI, southern New England back to upstate NY getting blasted

-36hr: 980mb along southern NE coast, epic hit for Boston north into SE Maine back to NH. SE Maine is suddenly forecasted to get 30" of snow.

Note how the surface low was almost 4mb weaker for an equivalent timestamp on each consecutive model run. It was result of the 500mb interaction between southern shortwave and northern monster bowling ball rotating down from Canada phasing later with every consecutive model run. This also caused the max precip shield to shift northwest towards the stronger northern stream wave that had better forcing associated with it

The Met sector is not really impacted by the economy, at least that has been my experience, as I posted in one of the met job section threads, I've had more than one person who's said they felt the market is better during bad econmic times because private sector companies get more business because in a fickle economy companies feel the need to cover the weather influence on their business because it could cost them money or clients if they blow something because they try to interpret a generalized non-specific NWS forecast or don't use any forecast at all. Remember, most private weather services don't charge much for their service, so its not like its going to make a dent in said company's bottom line paying the money for it.

From going on a few interviews in the private sector, I noticed every company was selling the fact that they've been growing or even "exploding in growth" from selling their services recently. I would definitely agree with your comment.

Really enjoying this thread as a N mid-atl outsider. The accounts/descriptions of 12/9/05 are truly fascinating in all aspects.

In terms of my first weather memories, I have random vague images of playing in the snow in the early 90s, including being outside the day of the first WTC bombings as it snowed very lightly. And I was thoroughly dissapointed that the special report trumped Woody the Woodpecker that day lol. Anyway, the first REAL significant storm events I can trace back to are the following:

-92 noreaster, looking out my back door at a rainy bare ground and the tall oaks bending down in the wind like I had never seen before.

-93 Superstorm I remember waking up and looking outside to an all out blizzard. Was outside for most of the day as nearly a foot accumulated and recall being forced inside by the change to sleet stinging my face. The next morning I was riding my big whealie on top of the 10" cement ice block on my driveway as my dad picked away at it with an axe.

-94 icestorms were epic in central NJ. By far the worst this area has ever seen in my lifetime (though the small area in the se part of my county that was struck with ZR on 2/14/07 might argue otherwise)

-2/4-5/95 was a big snowstorm(it's a KU case) I traced backed my memories to.

From 95-96 winter on, I literally remember every single snowstorm.

Weenie kids doing what we all did when we were weenie kids during Dec 05 , pretending to be newscasters, the video does pick up the intensity well

I kept watching because of the CREAM song in the background

I wish I had it about 30 minutes later when the band was even more intense. That loop only shows it just as it was beginning to go nuts. But the inflow in SE MA is pretty amazing to see....the storm was like a little nuke. So compact yet so powerful.

Yeah I could tell the band was still exploding at the end of your loop, but what you posted still does justice.. That presentation was outstanding too. Another thing I remember from that storm was that poor old weathafella was away and missed it. What I'd do to experience something like that.

Thanks Will. Looks SICK

Check it out. You can download the powerpoint presentation from David Vallee and the radar loop is on there. Check out the Jan '05 radar loop too if you'd like.

http://www.sneweathe...entations.shtml

Thanks a lot man checking it out now.

Just curiously peaking through the SNE trip down memory lane thread here. Does anybody have a loop of that 12/9/2005 thundersnow epic comma band that annihilated you guys? I remember being amazed watching that unfold from down in NJ where we got a little thump of our own.

The last two were taken the next day.

Holy ****