NEK_VT_Upslope_Event

If I were in NYC I'd be nervous about the western periphery of the banding setting up well to it's east. Don't know if it will retrograde but that may be pretty telling...

This is one the most fascinating nowcast I can remember.  The stakes are huge.  There's the EURO/NAM, and RGEM/GFS/HRRR/RAP.

Actually, the GFS is kind of on its own now as a  fizzle.

EURO rots the deform band up here. That's ridiculous and I toss. You can see how it lingers QPF up here for several panels.

Anyway, hard numbers are 1.4" for Lewiston and 1.7" for Laconia, 1.0" for MVL. I'll eat my hat if Dryslot only gets 0.4" more QPF than up here. That was a bizarre run.

I actually don't think it's implausible for this to happen. The gradient is so tight, just a 40-50 mile further pivot of the deform zone would do this. And the stronger the system usually the further west that zone sets up vs. guidance. Perhaps the Euro is just ahead of the other models in picking that up?