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Wmsptwx

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Posts posted by Wmsptwx

  1. 28 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

    It looked a lot better a couple of days ago on the models.  It had looked like storms would initiate early evening at maximum instability.  It is starting later, and low level instability is low.    GFS showing elevated storms, NAM doesn't show anything.  SPS forecast sounding below.  It might work if a special 18Z sounding but it isn't.  30% at 5 days, that usually means a big outbreak.  Still 3 day ENH, and SPC looks at stuff amateurs like me can't see or don't have time to see.

    CapOfForgedSteel.png

    NAM was blehhhh

    • Like 1
  2. 2 hours ago, Crazieman said:

    Is there a discord or something everyone wandered away to?  First nice looking severe event in my area in years and I come in to find it virtually dead?

    This feels like a snow oriented place and an occasional tropical event gets people going, us severe bros just used Twitter now it seems.

  3. 2 hours ago, Chinook said:

    Top synoptic analogs vary greatly in severe weather coverage. Most analogs here have some severe weather reports in Arkansas. There are not necessarily a lot of tornado analogs. As for now, I am not sure what I might want to post with the models. Instability seems a bit low.

    analogs.jpg

     

    84-hours

    gfs analogs.jpg

    Damn another dud possible incoming 

  4. 5 hours ago, canderson said:

    Hey @Wmsptwx I’ll be in town tomorrow for the Jason Isbell show at the CAC. Can I park in those “permit only” lots that are all over downtown Williamsport if it’s after 6 pm? If not, any parking tips that’s not parking at Wegmans and walking over, ha? 

    Lol that’s what I was gonna tell you to do! Ummm there’s a decent parking area right up block from cac that’s across from a jewelry store that’s free after hours, if you get there pretty early that likely will be open

    • Like 1
  5. 18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

    I’m intrigued by it. The first northern branch system goes north of PA Thursday, reinforcing some decent cold to be in place for the Saturday wave and it will already be a good bit colder this week in the wake of today’s system. Despite it being much colder, the low track north of PA with Thursday’s system will drive a brief surge of warmer surface temps (upper 30s-low 40s) that would likely be mostly light rain at lower elevations prior to frontal passage. 

    Today’s system had a bit of a front running wave Sunday that might have had a hand in setting the boundary further south that the main wave ended up running on. So the Thurs wave evolution is going to have to be watched to see how it sets things up for Saturday, among other things like timing of both these features and  jet stream interaction. 

    Lol im not believing anything until the storm is here at this point.

  6. 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    In every thread on here the good posters that make quality contributions day after day are getting attacked…

    What a crazy freaking world we live in!

    I love ya bro….me and you riding this one out until the bitter end since we’re not on Maryland border.

    • Thanks 1
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