wdcrob

53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We are a really streaky area for whatever reason.

It's always felt that way -- that higher probability misses and lower probability hits seems to string together way more often than you'd expect by chance.  Winter 2013/2014 being the poster child for the phenomena.

Legit 2" in West Springfield, moderate snow.  3-4" would be an awesome hit.

Approaching an inch already @yoda's house (more or less).  Light, uninterrupted snow for hours now.

Very nice to watch on a day off.

2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The pitcher is prime Randy Johnson and we are a rookie no name call-up from the minor leagues. 

Right on.

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

A good rule for the weighting might be 30% GFS, 25% Euro, 15% UK, 15% GGEM, and when time scale permits, 15% NAM. Go with RGEM instead of GGEM whenever possible. Ignore ICON and JMA. NAVGEM differentials are probably not that significant...

Thanks for this.  Not so much the specific weights, just in terms of helping a lot of lurkers have some idea how to think about the various models.

When was the last time DC and South had snow falling on snow?

9-9.25" West Springfield

Still falling.

32 with roofs, grass, cartops turning white under steadyish snow in Springfield.

10 minutes ago, NovaWahoo said:

Woke up this morning, looked out the window and saw 2 foxes in 5 minutes. They must love the snow. 

Same here.  On the steps to our deck and in-between yards.  They're always around, but apparently love the snow.

Just now, IUsedToHateCold said:

GFS a tad south through 30

Go on...

Is that every model except the NAM on board with a clean, big solution for DC and immediate burbs now?  

What happened to the amateur weather guy who cut his teeth on micro-local weather in Colorado for skiing purposes and actually knows what he's talking about?

I'm not a met/forecaster, but over the last 10 years I've gotten to be a decent META forecaster.  My forecasting rules, for other non-mets:

1) If Bob Chill and psuhoffman agree on a forecast it's likely to verify.  Both are extremely level-headed and keep emotion out of their thinking.

2) There are a number of otherwise sane, intelligent and knowledgeable people, including forecasters, who are so afraid of it NOT snowing they downplay the chances of snow even when it's likely.  I'll spare them blushes by not listing them, but ignore their negative comments.

3) Any forecast discussion that includes a lot of people saying IF in front of [something not currently happening or not currently modeled] is unlikely to result in significant snow.  If it feels like grasping, it usually is.

4) Related to 3... if the serious posters and forecasters disagree with each other about events inside 48-72 hours it's unlikely to snow significantly.

5) Most of the big/historic storms are telegraphed a week or more out and tend to be ~locked in at least 3-5 days ahead of time.

Some of this probably wrong, and there are obviously exceptions, but it's served me well when the discussions get technical.  Hopefully it's useful to other lurkers.

1 minute ago, Kingstonian said:

Driving south from DC down 395 the progression was roughly:

Before 3:10 - all or almost all rain
3:15 - Flipped to mostly snow around Seminary Rd
3:35 - got home to SSW Franconia/Kingstowne, mulch and some grass accumulation

Now (4pm) - car has been topped, starting to stick to pavement

Expectations exceeded for south of town.

It's dumping in West Springfield/Burke.  Side roads have caved and even Old Keane Mill wasn't completely clear 15 minutes ago.  It's backed off a bit now to normal snowfall, so warmer surfaces are catching back up.