HSVWx
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1202 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019
Interesting: Past model runs have been too hasty on lifting the front north out of our CWA...with the 00z runs holding off now until this evening when the surface low begins it`s shift northeastward. This delay may provide a better threat/focus for a few severe storms across our area and heavier rainfall. CAMs suggest a pool of 800-1200 j/kg of CAPE just south of the boundary this afternoon with decent shear supporting a Fixed-layer STA of near 4. Interesting and worrisome...one of the CIPs analogs for 07/00z is the February 5th 2008 outbreak. So what are the limiting factors? A lack of height falls pushing in for one...perhaps morning showers limiting the low-level instability keeping a CAP in place and mediocre midlevel lapse rates. Feel that the upward bump to a slight risk near the boundary by SPC was a wise decision...and it may have to be expanded south to the MS state line if pockets of sun are observed. The threat for severe weather will continue tonight as the shear increases through midday tomorrow with the cold front approaching. have added an isolated tornado threat in today`s HWO. Total rainfall amounts of near 3 inches are still projected near the KY and Mo borders...with 1-2 farther south. In addition have issued a wind advisory beginning late tonight into tomorrow across the western counties as 850mb winds increase to 55-65kts. Above normal temperatures for the next 30-36 hours...will fall quickly tomorrow afternoon and evening. Heat indices of 75-80F will become windchill in the teens in approximately 12 hours.-
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27 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:
I put the wrong soundings in for you,put hun not hsv
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: HSV LAT= 34.65 LON= -86.77 ELE= 643 12Z JAN24 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) THU 12Z 24-JAN 28.3 22.1 31008 0.00 0.00 92 THU 18Z 24-JAN 36.8 27.2 37.1 21.6 31005 0.00 0.00 1 FRI 00Z 25-JAN 41.4 35.7 35.5 23.8 28005 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 06Z 25-JAN 35.5 30.9 30.9 24.9 30006 0.00 0.00 20 FRI 12Z 25-JAN 31.1 25.7 25.6 19.9 35006 0.00 0.00 2 FRI 18Z 25-JAN 34.2 24.3 34.4 12.7 33003 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 26-JAN 37.3 29.6 29.7 18.3 30002 0.00 0.00 7 SAT 06Z 26-JAN 30.7 25.8 27.2 17.4 20005 0.00 0.00 4 SAT 12Z 26-JAN 29.2 26.2 29.1 18.3 25003 0.00 0.00 73 SAT 18Z 26-JAN 43.6 28.8 43.8 25.2 26004 0.00 0.00 89 SUN 00Z 27-JAN 45.2 37.1 36.8 29.3 19006 0.00 0.00 14 SUN 06Z 27-JAN 36.8 33.0 33.0 28.2 20006 0.00 0.00 25 SUN 12Z 27-JAN 34.0 32.7 34.0 29.2 19006 0.00 0.00 98 SUN 18Z 27-JAN 49.2 34.0 49.4 35.6 21007 0.00 0.00 98 MON 00Z 28-JAN 50.4 41.9 41.6 38.2 21005 0.03 0.00 28 MON 06Z 28-JAN 41.6 35.6 36.9 36.1 20005 0.00 0.00 43 MON 12Z 28-JAN 39.1 36.4 38.2 37.4 17005 0.00 0.00 52 MON 18Z 28-JAN 53.5 37.0 53.7 39.2 21007 0.00 0.00 21 TUE 00Z 29-JAN 55.5 47.1 46.9 37.8 19007 0.00 0.00 69 TUE 06Z 29-JAN 47.0 43.7 43.8 38.2 20007 0.00 0.00 94 TUE 12Z 29-JAN 44.7 36.2 35.5 32.4 33011 0.04 0.02 100 TUE 18Z 29-JAN 35.5 22.7 24.8 11.9 32012 0.24 0.24 59 WED 00Z 30-JAN 27.2 22.4 22.2 7.5 31007 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 30-JAN 22.2 14.7 15.3 4.8 24005 0.00 0.00 0Thank you very much!!!
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20 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:
I put the wrong soundings in for you,put hun not hsv
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: HSV LAT= 34.65 LON= -86.77 ELE= 643 12Z JAN24 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) THU 12Z 24-JAN 28.3 22.1 31008 0.00 0.00 92 THU 18Z 24-JAN 36.8 27.2 37.1 21.6 31005 0.00 0.00 1 FRI 00Z 25-JAN 41.4 35.7 35.5 23.8 28005 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 06Z 25-JAN 35.5 30.9 30.9 24.9 30006 0.00 0.00 20 FRI 12Z 25-JAN 31.1 25.7 25.6 19.9 35006 0.00 0.00 2 FRI 18Z 25-JAN 34.2 24.3 34.4 12.7 33003 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 26-JAN 37.3 29.6 29.7 18.3 30002 0.00 0.00 7 SAT 06Z 26-JAN 30.7 25.8 27.2 17.4 20005 0.00 0.00 4 SAT 12Z 26-JAN 29.2 26.2 29.1 18.3 25003 0.00 0.00 73 SAT 18Z 26-JAN 43.6 28.8 43.8 25.2 26004 0.00 0.00 89 SUN 00Z 27-JAN 45.2 37.1 36.8 29.3 19006 0.00 0.00 14 SUN 06Z 27-JAN 36.8 33.0 33.0 28.2 20006 0.00 0.00 25 SUN 12Z 27-JAN 34.0 32.7 34.0 29.2 19006 0.00 0.00 98 SUN 18Z 27-JAN 49.2 34.0 49.4 35.6 21007 0.00 0.00 98 MON 00Z 28-JAN 50.4 41.9 41.6 38.2 21005 0.03 0.00 28 MON 06Z 28-JAN 41.6 35.6 36.9 36.1 20005 0.00 0.00 43 MON 12Z 28-JAN 39.1 36.4 38.2 37.4 17005 0.00 0.00 52 MON 18Z 28-JAN 53.5 37.0 53.7 39.2 21007 0.00 0.00 21 TUE 00Z 29-JAN 55.5 47.1 46.9 37.8 19007 0.00 0.00 69 TUE 06Z 29-JAN 47.0 43.7 43.8 38.2 20007 0.00 0.00 94 TUE 12Z 29-JAN 44.7 36.2 35.5 32.4 33011 0.04 0.02 100 TUE 18Z 29-JAN 35.5 22.7 24.8 11.9 32012 0.24 0.24 59 WED 00Z 30-JAN 27.2 22.4 22.2 7.5 31007 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 30-JAN 22.2 14.7 15.3 4.8 24005 0.00 0.00 0Hey thank you JaxJag! Much appreciated!
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47 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:
You know, I think the cold likely resulted in part from one of those parent vortices from the strat split earlier this month. I haven't looked closely. It may very well be from across the pole in some part as that is likely how Canada reloaded. The reason it gets really cold is the snowpack to our north and some models even have light amounts over us. This is a very cold air mass coming
Thank you T for that your insight my friend
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Question: IS the upcoming pattern change next week now displayed via most Ensembles with such dramatic daily low morning temps, is this a "cross-polar"/ PV event?
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6 minutes ago, John1122 said:
I generally use the ratio'd map and take 30 percent off of it. The ratio'd map works for every situation, wet snow, 10:1 or dry/high ratio snow.
Ok John.....Thank you! I do appreciate that sir
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Just a quick question to enhance my winter forecasting skills;
Which model ratio is more accurate/better? The standard 10:1 or the Kuchera Ratio?Thank You
Tim
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1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:
No problem posting your area,i'll include you next time
Thank you Sir, much appreciated my friend!
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10 hours ago, jaxjagman said:
It's on accu pro
Ahhh, I understand. Thanks. I sure would like to see Huntsville's number down the road
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1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:
damn,look at the 2m's
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JAN18 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 18-JAN 41.6 41.0 03005 0.00 0.00 100 FRI 18Z 18-JAN 45.1 41.2 45.2 41.1 07003 0.00 0.00 100 SAT 00Z 19-JAN 49.1 45.2 46.3 43.2 07003 0.00 0.00 93 SAT 06Z 19-JAN 46.7 44.5 46.4 45.0 15008 0.00 0.00 100 SAT 12Z 19-JAN 50.8 46.4 50.8 50.3 17011 0.24 0.00 100 SAT 18Z 19-JAN 56.5 50.8 56.6 56.0 18010 0.59 0.00 93 SUN 00Z 20-JAN 59.9 50.6 49.9 48.9 29008 0.18 0.00 81 SUN 06Z 20-JAN 49.9 29.9 29.7 23.9 33014 0.08 0.05 100 SUN 12Z 20-JAN 29.7 23.3 23.2 13.4 34012 0.00 0.00 42 SUN 18Z 20-JAN 29.1 22.5 29.2 13.2 33009 0.00 0.00 93 MON 00Z 21-JAN 30.9 27.1 27.0 13.7 35006 0.00 0.00 70 MON 06Z 21-JAN 27.0 21.2 21.1 6.5 04005 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 21-JAN 21.2 18.9 18.9 4.7 05005 0.00 0.00 0 MON 18Z 21-JAN 30.5 18.7 30.8 5.7 07004 0.00 0.00 89 TUE 00Z 22-JAN 34.1 28.1 28.2 11.1 09005 0.00 0.00 78 TUE 06Z 22-JAN 28.5 26.6 27.4 10.0 15007 0.00 0.00 43 TUE 12Z 22-JAN 32.0 27.3 31.9 19.3 17010 0.00 0.00 65 TUE 18Z 22-JAN 44.5 31.9 44.8 26.4 17012 0.00 0.00 97 WED 00Z 23-JAN 46.5 44.5 46.2 34.2 17012 0.00 0.00 100 WED 06Z 23-JAN 47.8 45.9 47.9 43.1 18014 0.04 0.00 99 WED 12Z 23-JAN 50.0 47.7 49.8 46.6 18014 0.06 0.00 100 WED 18Z 23-JAN 55.1 49.3 54.7 51.6 20007 0.22 0.00 100 THU 00Z 24-JAN 54.7 41.4 41.2 41.0 34007 0.23 0.00 100 THU 06Z 24-JAN 41.2 36.8 36.9 36.7 01007 0.37 0.00 100 THU 12Z 24-JAN 37.0 36.4 36.4 36.1 00007 0.16 0.00 100 THU 18Z 24-JAN 36.6 35.1 35.0 34.7 34011 0.68 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 25-JAN 35.2 31.9 31.8 28.1 31011 0.60 0.29 97 FRI 06Z 25-JAN 31.9 28.0 28.2 22.1 31007 0.01 0.01 98 FRI 12Z 25-JAN 28.4 23.1 23.0 15.3 32007 0.00 0.00 68 FRI 18Z 25-JAN 27.1 21.1 27.4 11.5 34002 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 26-JAN 31.2 25.3 25.9 13.4 07003 0.00 0.00 99 SAT 06Z 26-JAN 27.3 21.7 25.7 15.2 15004 0.00 0.00 100 SAT 12Z 26-JAN 32.5 25.3 32.6 24.8 18007 0.01 0.01 100 SAT 18Z 26-JAN 35.5 32.6 35.2 33.2 20006 0.17 0.14 100 SUN 00Z 27-JAN 35.9 22.8 22.4 18.2 34012 0.34 0.29 100 SUN 06Z 27-JAN 22.4 6.2 5.8 -3.9 32013 0.31 0.31 99 SUN 12Z 27-JAN 5.8 -6.6 -6.8 -14.8 32008 0.01 0.01 34 SUN 18Z 27-JAN -1.4 -8.7 -1.2 -16.8 28010 0.00 0.00 94 MON 00Z 28-JAN 0.5 -2.4 -2.2 -15.3 28009 0.00 0.00 5 MON 06Z 28-JAN -2.2 -9.0 -9.1 -15.8 27006 0.00 0.00 3 MON 12Z 28-JAN -9.1 -12.8 -12.9 -18.6 26005 0.00 0.00 8What link can I find this at please?
Tim
Tn Valley Severe Weather
in Tennessee Valley
Posted