Snow_Miser

17 hours ago, skierinvermont said:

I've been listening to people like you say the cooling is coming for over 10 years. In fact, I had a radio show in college 10 years ago where I actually said we could see some cooling and AGW might be greatly exaggerated. Mostly I was overreacting to learning that some news articles, Al Gore, and even some science was skewed towards AGW and I went off too far in the other direction. I learned from my mistakes. Some never do.

 

We've already been through one very weak solar cycle for 10 years now. The earth didn't cool down. It didn't even stop warming.. it warmed a lot the last 10 years. This is where you introduce some magical lag period you read about on some internet blog that doesn't make any logical or physical sense. Let me tell you a secret.. these magical "lag" people were the same ones saying cooling was imminent 10-15 years ago. Then they invented the lag, because instead of the warming reversing or stopping, if anything it actually accelerated.

Didn't know you were a skeptic too at one point. I accepted the mainstream conclusions of the science, when it became abundantly clear that we were still warming, and there was no sign of any prospective cooling. Learning more about the subject didn't hurt either. It's been over 3 years since I recognized this.

There are no energy accumulation lags. Zero. It is like saying that a pot on a stove will continue to gain energy, even after the burner has been turned off. It makes no physical sense. So the continued upper ocean heat accumulation is totally inconsistent with reduced solar activity. It is just not causing current climate change. 

Getting back on topic, a pretty poor pattern for the Pacific side of the ice is on the way. The 12z ECMWF is advertising well above normal 850 hPa temperatures in the medium range and beyond for that region. Kind of surprised we still saw sizable losses over the last few days, despite cooler than normal 850 hPa temperatures. Unless recent losses have all come from the Hudson Bay. I think persistence type predictions of the sea ice minimum, like June melt ponding have the potential to be more inaccurate than usual this year. With the ice being so thin, it won't take as much to see sizable losses in the coming couple of months. 

The higher thicknesses relative to normal are getting exported in the Fram, according to the May PIOMAS update. Across the Arctic Basin, lots of thinner than normal ice.

From Zack Labe.

5 hours ago, The_Global_Warmer said:

Compare to other years. 

The Pacific side is a joke.  

Going to take 2013 or 1996 weather to prevent a top 3. 

And that's not guaranteed.

Nice dipole underway with ridiculous heights this week as well.

 

 

 

 

Welcome back Friv. 

Not a pretty depiction by ensemble forecasts over the next 10 days for the Pacific side. 

Record low volume continued into March. It would be impressive at this point if September also did not see record low volume.

Loss of -12K yesterday on NSIDC. With an unfavorable pattern for ice growth persisting, I don't expect significant ice growth for at least another couple days. 

As was mentioned by csnavywx, anomalous warmth looks to return to the Kara Sea (and much of the Arctic), alongside a low approaching ~960 hPa. Not only is this a favorable pattern for Fram export of whatever multiyear ice remains, but temperatures will run close to 30 degrees Celsius above normal once again for portions of the Arctic.

NSIDC has now dipped below 2007's minimum, making this year the 2nd lowest minimum on record.

I don't think the methane burst from the Arctic that Vergent was concerned about in 2011 had any detectable impact on the Global Temperature at all.

I think it was in 2010 when we had a pretty large Heat Wave take shape in the middle to later part of August. That was pretty brutal stuff.