stormguy80

Those who are not REALLY into it will regret it after they get stuck moving thousands of miles to work at some sweat shop in Oklahoma and yes, they do end up driving salaries down and taking jobs. So everyone looses - including them. What's wrong with trying to prevent a loose / loose situation? Also, the programs aren't tough enough if they are allowing this many mets to get through.

Yeah. I hear yah. I feel your pain.

The people that need to get out are the ones who are like "oh, meteorology sounds cool - i'd love to chase storms some day. After watching twister it looks like it'd be so fun". These are the people who are responsible for the soaring numbers of mets and a good deal of them would have probably choose another career if they new the realities of the field. This was the whole reason for my post.

If they care about getting good forecasts they do.

haha..I never said it was the end of the world! I pretty much said what many others have said.. you have to really love it - not just "like it" like I suspect many do which is the reason why the numbers of met students have skyrocketed. Many of them would reconsider if they new the truth and judging by some of the responses, some have.

Yeah, the sweatshops will break your spirit after a while and are nothing like what those dreaming of a career in meteorology probably envision. Most "wash out" or move onto another career after a while, the best forecasters move onto bigger and better, and then there are those who can tolorate it and are content busting their butts for peanuts - It takes a very special type to do that.

Yes, outside of the USA but no, not Siberia.

haha..what about the gem - eh? anyone else use this model? I see it regularly outperform the GFS and especially the NAM, especially for the area I forecast for

Yeah. You definately have to turn over some rocks to find the good jobs and be open to moving. I did that and the job I have now is ouside of the country.

Yes, the "life is hard and you gotta work hard to succeed" principle applies in all walks of life but meteorology is among the most brutal since the supply / demand curve is so skewed. I"ll explain it for the final time...There are only jobs for about 40% of graduating mets. Of the remaining 60% its a safe bet that at least half of them are "doing all the right things" but they won't get jobs. Heck, lets just say for the sake of argument 90 or 100% of graduating mets listen to your advice and do the right things. The fact is still the same. There are too many mets and not enough jobs! There are probably other fields that have this problem too but meteorology is currently among one of the worst.

Yes - this is the point I'm trying to get across. This is simply the way it is when there are far more mets than jobs.

They are known by most in the industry but not by most who are in school and as long as their are people who keep insisting that "its like a lot of fields in that way" or "just work hard / do the right things and you'll be ok" people reading this will choose to believe the positive posts at their own peril.

Exactly. And the irony is, these private companies who sell their product as being better than the NWS have the mets who aren't as good or don't have as much experience since anyone who can gets into the NWS where the pay and benifits, etc..are far better.

You guys keep telling yourself that but the evidence suggests meteorology is one of the worst in terms of making a career out of it. Yes, other fields have some of the same characteristics such as lack of jobs but I would argue with meteorology its far worst than most since most peoples definition of "tough finding a job" means tough finding a job within 1 hour of where you are living (say in LA, New York or whatever) whereas with meteorology it can mean not being able to find a job anywhere. Also, other fields have the automation issue. The thing is with meteorology, its all these issues rolled into one. Also, its not so much about my experience, though I admit I have had some tough times, but what I've see many others go through and what I know for fact is happening at these sweat shops and not just to a few people. This isn't just me who's saying this. All the evidence is there. Just read this: http://www.ucar.edu/governance/meetings/oct08/followup/head_and_chairs/john_knox.pdf. Ask anyone who has worked at Weatherbank or accuweather or Fleetweather. I'd love it if I was wrong but the evidence strongly indicates I'm not.

Let me explain - 600 - 1000 mets grads per year and growing and less than 300 new jobs. That means jobs for only the top 40% or so. Of those 40% probably only the top 10 or 20% will ever move beyond sweatshop land (thankfully, I have). So you can be a really strong candidate with well above average forecasting skills who works hard, is aware of the competitiion, and all that and still not make it beyond a lousy job that pays 20 - 30 k. the message in this isn't that "you didn't work hard enough" the message is that their are too many mets and that is what the market is trying to say. The market is trying to say with these low salaries is that these highly qualified, highly intelligent, hard working people, are needed elswhere.

You're still not hearing me...Mets are smart people. Most people, myself included, are doing the things needed to be competitive. The point is, when everyone does these things to "get ahead" and get that competitive edge you still have a higher numer of highly qualified competitive people who are all outstanding candidates but not enough jobs to go around for all of them. I've heard of IT people complaining about finding a job but when I ask them if they are looking outside of the area where they live (meaning they would have to move), they say no. Meteorology appears to be one of the only fields where you can open up where your looking to include the whole country and still not be able to find a job. Also, the difference in the perception (lots of jobs) vs. reality (few jobs) of the job market appears to be greater in meteorology than in most other fields. Finally, did I mention that the position I'm now seeking is techinically "entry level"? It just happens to have far more advancement opportunity than where I am right now. I think it says a lot that someone with many years of experience and great performance reviews can not even get an entry level position.

Yes, obviously that is true. But the point is in most industries if you work hard, and do all the other right things (have the right attitude, network, ect) things will eventually fall into place since in most fields the supply / demand curve isn’t as badly skewed. The point is that in meteorology you can do all these right things and still not make it simply because there are far more mets than jobs. Yes, some of the people that don’t make it won’t because they didn’t work very hard or have the right attitude but many others are terrific candidates for jobs but still won’t make it since the competition is that fierce. This is the message I’m trying to get across. BTW, I’m doing pretty well. You may think I’m some unemployed met or something. That’s not the case. I’ve got a pretty good job but am trying to advance and finding it virtually impossible even with years of experience and strong performance reviews, etc..I know for a fact I’ve made it into the top 10% of applicants for positions but just not the top 1%. In any other field I’d have the job I’m looking for by now.

It's not though. that's the thing. You are right that in most fields its challenging finding a job, especially today, but when most people complain that it took them 6 months of a year or whatever to find a job, they weren't even looking far outside of the area where they live. With meteorology its almost a gaurentee you'll have to move but even with this mindset it's still almost impossible finding a job even after opening up your job search nation wide. Also, I don't know of any other field requiring a similiar level of education that has salaries starting in the 20-25 k range. I challenge anyone to name one.

Yes, stick with it if you really love it but have a backup plan.

Everything you said is valid - these things will all help. But the thing is mets are pretty smart people and those reading will likely follow your advice if they choose to stick with it. Many others have on their own accord. So once everyone is trying to do these things to "get ahead', in the end everyone ends up back where they are all similar and the original problem is still there - far more mets than jobs. Believe it or not I have a job now..I'm one of the luckier ones and even managed to move beyond my sweatshop years into something better but still not that good. But still after 8 years of experience and very strong performance reviews I'm still unable to break into the NWS after trying more than a year.

couldn't agree more. Bottom line is demand is low relative to supply and the market is sending a strong message in that the salaries are bad. "Mr. Market" is essentially saying to mets, "You guys are smart and we need people like you to be engineers, computer scientists, etc..I'm going to punish you with a low salary if you choose to go where you are not needed instead of where you are as a way to try to get more people to go where we really need them" The problem is, mets are not listening!

To be honest, I"m not in that bad of place right now but a lot of other people I know are. I told the story as close to honest truth as I could and the reality is it is in fact that bad. You can look up the stats (285 jobs per 600 - 1000 grads) for yourself if you doubt me.

I never said that the NWS couldn't be stressful. I simply said that the private sector is likely more stressful. Also, regarding what you do with the GFE I know you guys work hard to add a value and that the models are rarely perfect. But I do know that the Weather Channel uses a similar system and only has one person on a desk forecasting the whole country. But please don't think I was trying to downplay the work you guys do. I know that to do the job properly you need more than one desk but I'm just not sure certain factions in the US who want to downsize government would see it that way.

well congradulations but not everyone is going to be in the top few percent who manage to get good jobs.

Yes, when I was in school almost 10 years ago this is what I was told. I was told this by profs and the older students near graduation who were so happy they had finished the hard part of dynamic, etc.. They told us there were lots of new opportunities presenting themselves in the private sector despite the federal hiring slack.