Casualbrain

21 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Yikes

Looking like an epic ice storm in the Apps....

It's a thing of beauty...

Just now, NC_WX10 said:

Really getting worried about this southern trend. A few more jogs south and the northern mountains totals really go down. The press of the cold, dry air is really pushing the heavier precip south. 

Looks like we're getting screwed here in Roanoke LOL.  At least Boone has a better chance of getting a decent snowfall.

Just now, Bamabuilder86 said:

I’ll be heading to the cabin rental on black mountain in a few hours. Super pumped. My wife has never seen more than 2 inches with the exception of our ski trips out west. 

Enjoy the show!  I was thinking of heading to my sister's place in Cashiers tonight, but I have to be at work on Monday so I can't get stranded

Just now, CADEffect said:

Another quick question at this point in the game do you start looking at the precipitation field more in short term models are continue to watch the op models?

I start trusting the short-term operational models 48 hours before an event - but the art of forecasting is in comparing the numerical models/ensemble models, soundings (actual balloon launches), and historical events to obtain your best guess.  24 hours out is usually a "lock" with the models as there is more real/actual atmospheric data and the cone of uncertainty narrows considerably.  That said ALL models have busted at one time or another.

3 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

SkewT for the NAM at the one frame it shows sleet for Boone. Entire column well below freezing at 69 and 75 so I would think any sleet would be very brief and fairly easily overcome by rates.

Elevation is your friend!  3333 ft. ASL is a bonus as warm nose can't quite get over the mountain.
Blowing Rock will do slightly better as well based on my observations after years living there.

1 minute ago, Boonelight said:

Yep, just saw that and was about to post. Looks like Blacksburg is on board.

INWS just posted at 3:32 https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=27994705

2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Its sort of hard to sit here and fathom what we could be facing. Possibility of feet of rain and hurricane force gusts from Raleigh to the coast? No way that can happen right?

Let's hope it doesn't happen - but things are looking grim.

Thanks for the work to fix this issue all!

Anyone else getting strange tab popups when connecting to AW?

Been happening to me all day, and my virus-scan says my machine is clean?

I'm going to be in the Canyon Lake area over Christmas - hoping it's not too cold so I can go water skiing

Cool roanoke snow photo by a local

We got 18.5 at my place.