kdskidoo

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

How did Dries orchard fare the last few years?

I think last year surprisingly they did ok with the weather, although I heard they had some labor issues.  2022 was pretty much a disaster for most orchards around central PA.  usually the most vulnerable buds/ blossoms are cherries, peaches and plums.  that year even the apple crop was hit hard, if my memory is correct.  

18 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wasn't a good year in western Pennsylvania either. I know Soergel's had to cancel their strawberry festival last year, although they did get some strawberries later in the season after it started raining again. Looking like fruit growers are going to have a tough time navigating this new climate. Spring just doesn't seem delayed enough anymore to retard plant growth sufficiently to counter the threat of spring frosts and freezes.

if the fruit tree buds/ blossoms freeze this year it'll be 3 out of the last 5 years orchards in my area will have suffered severe losses due to freezing temps.  I am probably more aware of these facts than most because, although I don't have an orchard, i do grow other produce for sale at our local roadside stand and do buy fruit from a local orchard to resell.  last year our 300 tomato and 500 pepper plants were hit with that late freeze in May and I even covered them with row cover. most  everybody loves these early warm temps not realizing how detrimental they can be  until they go to buy local fruits and veggies and realize either they can't get them or the price is 5 times what it should be because of severely limited supply.

7 hours ago, canderson said:

Could hit 70 4 days next week 

this is going to be a disaster for the local fruit crop

15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Frankly, I’d be surprised if we don’t at least have the chance to track a Winter storm chance for some places near our region with the advertised look on the 3 main ensembles for periodic of the 18th to the 23rd.

These are the 5 day ensemble means for the pattern….very consistent.

we saw that same consistency back in Feb. and we all know how that ended.  but now that we are heading into spring and most everybody, even some of us snow weenies are ready for this winter to end there's absolutely no doubt in my mind the pattern will flip to a wintry one and probably will have staying power right through April and into May.  i ok either way.  what I don't want is windy rainy days in the 40's, which I'm sure will be on tap for April and May.

10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Glad you got up.  I missed that period and thought we'd have more opps coming.  Last 2 weekend peeps have been able to play on top, but not in lower elevations.  Oh well, at least they are ready for next season (just put new batteries in both last week....not cheap).

Hope all's well w/ you Kirby.  I miss running the TC and web stuff from years past.  Got to know a lot of good folks doing it.  A fun group but no longer worth the time/effort...for me anyways.

 

we're good here hope you and the family are also well.  we could have went up a few more times but I'm not into running circles on top the mountain.  we're trying to plan a trip for the first week in March to either Maine or Ontario.  Maine isn't looking good at this time and although Ontario just got some good snow I'm not sure what to think for that area by then either.  just have to wait and see I guess.  

I do miss TC.  there's a group on facebook that kinda took the place and its a good place to go for trail info but facebook isn't my favorite site to visit.

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Tellies would argue otherwise.  AO/NAO headed neg in early march, and PNA on the rise, says slow your role spring...MJO and poss SSW also thrown into mix says not so fast.    

What's the truth, I dunno, and once into mid march, I typically dont really care.  If it cant snow, and stick around (which gets harder by the day....damn sun angle, I'm ready to move onto spring.  Yes, i just said it.  Harley has much better ROI fun wise, and while i love a wintery day like yall do, we've definitely wasted some prime time and the cold has been around, but not deep (as others have suggested in winter grading that's coming out). We've had much more winter than last year, so I'm ready to chalk it up as a minor victory and move along.  

I didn't get up north w/ sleds once again, although my bad as there's been about 5 weekends that one coulda rode up there.  Not great but better than last year.  

we were up once back in Jan. and it was better than I anticipated.  a little thin in the low areas but pretty nice on top.  worth the trip.

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z EPS & 6z GEFS still keep the LSV in the game for Advisory snow & still have Warning snow for the northern half of CTP.

razor thin edge for us on the southern edge of the reds and purples.  need a last minute shift south of 50-75 miles for me to feel "comfortable" with warning level totals.  

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I had not noticed myself but HRRR does this

 

I believe one of JB's old sayings was thunder in March and expect snow within a week.  I wonder if that applies to Feb as well.

3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Say it with me: It's over lol

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

in order for something to be over it needs to start.  this winter never started.

46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not often we get to PBP 3 storms in a 240 run. 

in March nonetheless

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

After seeing the cold thoughts relax on the GFS yesterday, they are back with a vengeance today.  The northeastern 1/4 of the country is locked in winter with temps that would be normal for Jan over a very long stretch of the month.  

we should have all expected this.  winter delayed not denied.  just as we head towards spring and want to think about baseball, planting gardens and other spring activities we enter a winter type pattern.  I fear the fruit crop in many parts of the state may be lost or severely damaged for the 3rd year out of the last 4.

8 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

C'mon spring

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

unfortunately, we've had our spring for the past 2 months.

the 3 words I hate most as we head into March in a virtually snowless winter are "front end thump".  maybe some of you will disagree just to pad stats but at this point to me its go big or give me spring.  

2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Let's just get spring here. Took a nice walk yesterday and quite frankly, the thought of cold and/or snow right now is upsetting.

Blizz posting maps in February in the midst of a damn-near shut out is basically the same thing as a doctor performing CPR on a corpse for over an hour because he fucked up treatment, killed the patient, and has made it personal.

Time for spring to sprung.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

we all know how this is gonna go.  we've had pretty much nothing but spring weather all winter except for a few days.  now that we're heading towards spring the weather pattern we all wanted for the last 2 months will start establishing itself and last well into May, if not June.

Just now, Superstorm said:

When Euro was persistently locked in on a cutter, I knew GFS was fools gold.


.

unless it was reversed and then we all know the gfs would win and the euro would cave.  just how things work out for our area most of the time.

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Hey Kirby, hope all is well.

Yeah we still need to get them ready.  Got the Harleys outta the garage last evening, so they are next to prep.  

You still riding? 

we're doing ok, been kind of a rough year for us, we both lost our mothers this past summer.  but we're dealing with it best we can.  hope everything is good with you.  yes still riding.  just upgraded the sleds last season.  the wife and I now have the same sleds again, (2) 2021 600R's.  I thought we'd be good to go, but when we took the battery tenders off the other day and started them hers didn't want to turn over very good.  got the jumper pack and it fired right up so I'm not sure what's going on.  can't imagine a 2 year old battery would go bad especially with a tender on.  maybe the tender is bad, IDK but we ordered a new battery and is supposed to arrive before the weekend so maybe we'll head up.  looks like there'll be enough up north to get the first ride in.  lets hope for a cold and snowy winter, start to finish.

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

For those that are going to cash in, by the looks of the pattern, y'all stand a decent chance at holding it till christmas.  I just need to figure out how to hold onto my 1" of slop that I'm anticipating.  

 

 

take the sleds and head to Potter county

temp made up up to 45 a little bit ago then it started to snow and we're down to 41 now with flakes in the air.

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

 

 

stayed in the area a few years ago on a snowmobile trip.  they dig holes in the ice and put small pine trees in the holes so they freeze in the lake for trail markers.  good thing because the one day we were there there was high winds and blizzard conditions and without those trees for markers it would have been very easy to get lost on the lake.  

measured 5" about an hour ago near Sunbury

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would still rather see it slightly suppressed at this range. The old north trend isn’t what it used to be but systems do still find a way to eek north at the end more often then not. But it’s not like 20 years ago when we wanted to see it crushing Raleigh at this range. The typical north adjustment is much less then it once was. 

with the big storm we had up here the middle of December central PA was in the bullseye for about 3 straight days on most guidance.  then when within 24 hours all the models started moving the heaviest north.  ended up about 150 miles further north into southern New York state when all was said and done. 

4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Wish I could drive about 1 hour north/NW of Lewisburg. My car couldn’t handle it. Haha. Hopefully we have a shot at 18 in Lewisburg still, gonna be close thinking more like 14

I think 14" is easily doable.  all depends on the warm layer.  keeps moving north with most models.  my concern is a change to sleet at some point later tonight.

snowing near Sunbury.  28 degrees.

44 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Selinsgrove

 

this can't be real life.  I must be dreaming.  most models have my area in the "zone".  that never happens.  looks like enough up north for some pre Christmas riding.

10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I am in the 10-20% range. Yeah!???

 

I've been in that range or better on every one of those maps this entire winter and the result has been a whopping 9" and most of that came in Nov. and early Dec.