When you figure that southern branch storms correct their surface low tracks further west/north within the final 78 hours, this has bad news written all over it. Marginal airmass, warm SSTs along the coast still, weakening confluence, boundary level flow coming from the east, surface low tracking close, trough in the west, midlevel lows closing off too close for comfort. Plus, as @bluewave said before, the SE ridge pump is always underestimated in setups like this, as is sneaky warm noses. One you get thunderstorms blowing up in the south, which is guaranteed too happen, the latent and sensible heat release aloft is only going to serve to pump the SE ridge even further. I’ll take the under on this storm, not just for the city and the coast but north and west of the city too. This is an I-84 north special IMO
Excellent write up, agree 100%. Setup right now is the best case scenario for northern suburbs, but the NW trend likely isn’t even over
Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
in New York City Metro
Posted
Excellent write up, agree 100%. Setup right now is the best case scenario for northern suburbs, but the NW trend likely isn’t even over