LehighValleyDad

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Posts posted by LehighValleyDad


  1. If you compare the 12Z NAM with the 18Z NAM,   the closed 500mb low is at least 100 miles further north at 18Z.   I believe that was a big part of the difference which allowed this run to push that razor edge cutoff north.    Will be interesting to watch the 18Z GFS at 500mb to see if this it the start of something.


  2. Glenn is so excited about the blizzard watch he didn't even mention allentown on his forecast haha

    LOL .... I have a bad feeling about this one for the Lehigh Valley ..... Suspect we're going to be under a "virga" storm for a long time while Philly gets pounded.    Have seen it before.


  3. That cutoff worries me. I'm currently in East Stroudsburg and I'm 20 miles away from either an epic bust or an epic blizzard on this run.

    I totally agree.   I live 8 miles north of ABE, and I despise the gradient being this close.   Would love to have some insurance room.  Maybe we can get a 25 to 50 mile jog north.


  4. I am telling you, how many times in our many years of tracking storms in this area have Miller As done this only to trend north as we get closer to the event?  It has happened numerous times.  And with the warm waters off the coast and what I see as not a screaming suppression signal I have to believe this will come north yet again.

     

    If I am wrong, so be it....

    It's certainly possible .... The oft worshipped 1996 storm was just like that for the Lehigh Valley.   I can remember 24 hours before the event I was extremely aggravated by the forecasts for 1 to 2 inches and a miss to the south.     It seems for the big ones, we always have to flirt with danger (i.e. either a complete miss or a change to rain/sleet).