Nick Esasky

Cold chasing moisture rarely pans out, but it makes for fun model watching 54 hours out.

15 hours ago, Chinook said:

Just looked up Grand Targhee Resort. It is at Alta, Wyoming. Wow, did they just copy the name from Alta, Utah, famous ski town?? Anyway, if you check the NWS point & click forecast, and look under the map, it will tell you the (averaged) altitude of the green box on the map.  The NWS point & click forecasts account for elevation.  You might want to check this web site

http://models.weatherbell.com/wpc/wpc_snow.php

for the NWS approximate (72-hr)  snowfall forecast, which also accounts for elevation. As far as different forecast apps are concerned, I would say the apps probably take GFS runs (or other models) and do some extra calculating of some type depending on app. Who knows how they factor in elevation change? Elevations in the West are very important.

 

Thanks for the response and the link.  Yes, I assume the variations are driven by elevation change.  

Sorry for another intrusion from a SE forum member. 

Going to Grand Targhee next week and want to know if there's a place the group here would recommend looking for the best forecast for the mountain itself.  As one would expect, I'm seeing wildly different forecasts for Mon-Thurs of next week.  I expect conditions to be great, but just curious that their website is showing 46/29 for Monday 4/1 while their app shows 34/29 and snow.  Could be as simple as one is for the base and one for the summit, but hoping someone here has figured that out for this resort before.  Thanks.

12 minutes ago, jburns said:

That seems to me to be a rather questionable definition of a disaster.

Yep.  School buses stranded on icy roads would be closer to a disaster.  This was just liberal use of one of the three days that Atlanta Public Schools built into the calendar.

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I see no announcement on twitter of it officially.  That would seem to be an early trigger.  Given how late in the year it is relatively though schools tend to be more willing to make a closing call early.  If it is in December they are often wary because if it’s a bad winter, especially if it’s a southern location where roads may stay bad for days with each storm you don’t want to be in school til June 

Atlanta Public School texts have gone out to parents that school is cancelled tomorrow.  Looks like their twitter feed has been updated.  Like you said, they have a couple days built into the schedule, so might as well use it if there is uncertainty.  They would much prefer the embarrassment from cancelling for a rain storm than the pain of having school get out when roads are already in bad shape.

FFC reduced their totals slightly this morning for Atlanta proper.

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

ATL just got NAM'd on the 18Z run... .30 snow

Yep. Still plenty of time for that to end up almost all rain of course.

8 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

we all know how this ends up it it verifies......200 miles north of where it is today......

If it ends up 200 miles north, I'd say by definition it didn't verify.

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

ICON looks like it's got the storm next weekend.... coming up from the gulf.

If Atlanta is going to get a storm next week, you can bet that it will be at the absolute worst time to make Super Bowl weekend an absolute mess.

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

While the coming snow is the major story for parts of the Southeast, the storm is also likely to dump a widespread 1"-3" precipitation. As a result, 2018 could rank among the 15 wettest years on record in numerous cities in the region. Already, Wilmington, NC has had its wettest year on record, by far. The 95.83" precipitation that has fallen this year has easily surpassing the previous record of 83.65", which was set way back in 1877.

180 Hrs out - ATL could get 5+ more inches.

Haven't seen much discussion of N GA based on the overnight runs.  Is ATL pretty much out of the woods as far as significant ice?  I'm guessing maybe a dusting on Monday on the back end might happen, but nothing more?

3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I was quite surprised the nam's  profiles were dismissed as i'm sure many were for that reason.   Interesting decision. 

i love how he has athens being marked in elbert county instead of where it's really at, clarke. 

And apparently Chattanooga is in the Central Time Zone now.

8 minutes ago, shahroz98 said:

Do you think this'll be a trend ? 

Only if future runs are this bad or worse.