jpbart

2 hours ago, suzook said:

Why do people live in a climate they hate so much? Life is too short to be so miserable.

It's called having a mortgage payment and kids in school, highly effective anchors.

Below is a statement from the NWS and I was hoping somebody could fill me in on what this forecaster is talking about here.  Trying to learn a bit about all of this.

Any instability that develops should be driven by steep
mid-level lapse rates in association with the deepening upper
trough. Why is this interesting? I`m glad you asked - it is
primarily owed to the wind profiles this afternoon being quite
favorable for severe hail. It is unlikely that we have even low
amounts of instability advect into our forecast area; however,
if a strong storm can sustain itself east of the better
environment, it wouldn`t be surprising that at storm or two
produced marginalia-severe or sub-severe hail. 

2 hours ago, Snow dog said:

Us folks in Upstate SC can identify with you!  We too got very little, while virtually every direction around us  cashed in during at least one of the events.  For  the Jan 10 event, the folks to our southwest were getting hammered (4+"), but by the time it arrived in the upstate, it was mostly a flurry fest.  Got MAYBE 1/2" at best.  The event in Feb was nothing more than a few flurries.  I have to give the winter weather a 'D' hear in Greenville, SC.  I sure long for the late 80s!  Got back to back 10+" snows in '87 & '88.  Oh well...

Try living in Columbia, SC.  Complete failure while others score is the new normal.  We did get something like 1/2" that lasted about 3 hours and there was much joyous celebration over that.  Otherwise, cold rain is our normal winter outcome, with some black ice when the cold arrives after the main event.

Around Columbia SC we had several tornado signatures on radar (3 or 4?) and tornado warnings posted.  Storms overperformed a bit in the sever weather dept.

32 minutes ago, suzook said:

Is anyone sick of winter yet? I understand being snow starved, but the cold, and overcast days this year seem to be more than normal, and are depressing to me. I am ready for hopefully a nice spring.

Hoping for a long spring with sunny days but not needing the A/C 24/7 until June.  Yeah, I know.  A man can dream, a man can dream.

7 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

I use Pivotal Weather. Tropical Tidbits is good too. 

Thanks!

Question:  I want to access the various computer model outputs like a lot of members here appear to do.  Is that possible and how do I do that?  Site recommendations, any help, or advice would be greatly appreciated.  

UHG!  ICE galore for Columbia, SC.  Curses!

58 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Agreed but couldn't CC be causing that? Changes globally could be creating an imbalance. I saw a stat that in Charlotte, 4 of the top 5 longest snow droughts have happened in the last 30 years. This was before a recent snow but kind of a wild stat.

Yes, that may be a factor adding instability to the current climate and changing things so previous analog years are less predictive.  The effect is likely small over time currently but it is not well understood so it's effects are hard to pin down.  General consensus is it makes things more extreme, droughts a bit more intense etc. 

3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Looking back over the past 60 years at GSO there is a correlation between warm temps in October and November and lower snowfall totals. It's possible some of this is due to the warmer months falling in more recent years due to global warming and heat island which also affects snow totals. See data below:

Average snowfall : 8.23

Average snowfall top 20 warmest November temps: 6.49

Mid 20 Nov : 9.42

Bottom 20 Nov : 8.79

Top 20 Oct : 6.71

Mid 29 Oct : 9.93

Bottom 20 Oct : 8.06

 

October came in ranked 11th and November has a 76% chance to surpass the top 20 warmest in this dataset per the IEM ensemble scenarios comparison tool. So basically add historical correlations between warm fall temps and low snowfall totals to the growing pile of reasons we will fail this year 

 

This appears to be the new normal, snow is just getting to be a less frequent event over time.  I have stopped thinking about it and have just moved on.  Being in Columbia SC this seems like the best way to preserve my sanity.  I wish all of you snow people luck and maybe a miracle will happen and I get flurries this year while y'all get 18".

2.48" in the rain bucket for W. Columbia, Yay!  Had 0.21" the day before with hopefully a bit more today.  Being this happy about muggy rain filled days is a testament to how dry it's been.  Hope Y'all score some rain, but not too much rain.

I am of the opinion that this year the peak is in October, possibly late october.  Once the atmosphere cools a bit and a few things shift around it will kick off.  That ocean heat has to go somewhere.

44 minutes ago, MANDA said:

The big number threat is going by the boards.  Not likely anything named next 7 days and maybe 10.  That leaves a lot heavy lifting for September and October to get to 20 much less low or mid 20's.  Highly unlikely at this point.  Not to say we don't have some high quality Tropical Cyclones over the next 8 weeks.

I suspect the season might be more back loaded into November, December than usual.  A few storms my pop up then in a similar fashion as late June, July?

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s during weather like this that I question why I choose to live here

Amen brother!

Thanks everyone, I appreciate the responses.

I understand what ONI in, and SOI, but what is RONI?  I tried searching for but to no avail.  Can somebody explain this please?

3 hours ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Nah, we need to dry out, forget the wet lol

Personally, I find that dry too easily turns to drought, then to seriously bad drought and temps over a 100 with a water bill to match.   Let it rain baby, let it rain.

Well it appears that the blocking we need for winter to get snow may arrive in March to get cold rain.  So let's hope for 3 years no snow and get into the record books.  I mean what the hell, might as well get something out of this misery. 

The perfect set up for the March killing frost.  Ah life in the south.

My hopes have turned to a mild damp spring that lasts until May~ish with out the killing frosts of March.  Peach crops took a pounding last year, let's hope things play out better this time around.

After all of the back and forth between hype over models vs despair when they change the other way.   I just want this winter to end for better or worse.   Next up early spring and anxiety over killing late frosts.

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Wintry precip way down in my area on 2/18 on 12Z GFS! These sharp changes from run to run show the level of uncertainty.

 Not all of this is snow as some is other wintry:

Living smack dab in the middle of SC.  I am curious about how the gap between potential snow fall locations.   This kind of snow event is especially frustrating to those of us in the middle of the gap.  Anybody care to enlighten us forever snowless folks?

At the end of February if we haven't had any snow (likely) then I hope we stay just above freezing at night with cool afternoons until May.  As much as I miss snow I despise the early warm ups that transition to a hard freeze and a destruction of everything in bloom.

I have resigned myself that snow fall will be an exceedingly rare event and anything I get will be a major unexpected surprise.  Sort of like finding a $20 in an old coat you haven't worn in a long time.  The constant back and forth between "we still have hope" and the "it's over" camps has become tiring.  I now assume no snow is the new normal, drink a glass of whiskey and just enjoy the cool weather.

Personally I have given up, getting snow in these parts is damn rare and appears to be less likely every year.  Especially around the Columbia, SC area for crying out loud.  I just decided getting frustrated and angry over failed storms was silly and not good for my blood pressure.  I keep an eye on things for fun and to know when I have to go buy milk and bread in larger quantities than usual.  I still hope for that one storm to arrive and hell the Detroit LIons won a playoff game.  anything can happen.

13 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I'm just as frustrated as you all and I keep reminding myself that the December warmth was advertised well in advance and to be patient. I know. It's freaking hard to do after the disaster of last winter.    

 

Better times are coming. They always do.     Hopefully it's sooner rather than later  

After a season when it snowed at the coast and in the mountains, and everywhere but in Columbia, SC.  I have learned to relax and just enjoy the show.  Do not get my hopes up too much, and do not get too frustrated when it all goes bust.  Years of being a Phillies fan has prepared me for this, it's all ok.  Just relax, have a glass of bourbon and see what mother nature is up to.