neatlburbwthrguy

regarding this Thursday event, obviously lower elevation in georgia seem to be only a cold rain now, but curious if a short drive up ga 400 to suches (elevation 3000-3500) would give me a shot at seeing a nice snow?  i dont have access to reading the thermal profiles, so not sure if elevation would help out in north ga or they would just see a cold rain as well?

anyone have access to posting the HRRR for tomorrow morning?

Think I'm going to head north from atlanta towads Dahlonega/Helen area and see some decent snow in the morning....

Where art thou Lookout to chime in on this upcoming storm?!  He’s my favorite.  

NAM is showing 1-2 inches of snow for Atlanta overnight Sunday night.   Why is no one talking about it?

32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

RGEM looks like it changes BHM over at 11Z or so

Bout to head out in a few, when does northside of ATL (Marietta to Roswell) flip to snow?

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I would be shocked if ATL got anything big from this.  It’s possible but making a forecast here you really have to go just up to 2 inches on cold surfaces.  This isn’t a closed low or dynamic system where intense rates are likely and it’s occurring at a bad time of day for accumulation.  One factor I think that is killing this for ATL is what I call “early wet bulbing” where you get precip too early before dry air really works in and when you finally do start going to all snow you don’t have the potential you would have had if you stayed dry.  If for whatever reason the precip from 23-07Z stays south of ATL and they can get to 23-24-25 on dewpointa this even becomes much more dangerous for them  

thanks for the input goose, much appreciated.  i agree if we can get dewpoints in low to mid 20's then we may be in for a surprise.  with you as well, i don't think anything major on the roadways at this point but 2 inches on grass, roofs, car tops is def possible, imo.  

1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said:

The RAP always seems colder than actuality with these winter storms. Wouldn't put much hope into it. I'd go with the NAM 3k and the HRRR for my goto hi-res models when it comes to warm noses and thermal profiles. The RGEM also tends to do fairly well. The RGEM/NAM 3k combo nailed the big bust in January.

When does ATL decide on WINTER STORM WATCH or WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY?  Figured it would be out by now.   I think criteria for ATL to be in a watch is the expectation for 2 inches of snow.   Saving grace tomorrow for ATL roads will be 34-35 degree temps versus upper 20's we had during SNOWJAM.