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toller65

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Posts posted by toller65

  1. Anyone care to provide a Euro total snowfall map through Jan 17? Just for getting off like to see what potential is for western and Northern ME.

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    Too funny, "getting off" was supposed to be "grins"..... interpretive text algorithm is deviant

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  2. 32 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

    Fairly strong consensus building for a landfall in down East Maine or Nova Scotia. Not really too concerned about New England. That area is used to seeing strong winds during winter storms.

    No foliage, and trees frozen in the ground during winter - if Lee makes it into the GoM, full foliage and saturated ground will have a significant impact r.e. storm damage

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  3. This can't be ignored, but let's see we got TS wind gusts across a large part of the region as a result of an expanded wind field. Given the very saturated grounds and fully leaved trees power outages would be a greater concern than usual for winds that we usually see several times in the late fall/winter. 
    This

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  4. As a definite "weenie" and"lurker", one of the things I appreciate about this board is that it is not exclusive to anyone (except some instigators from other geographic regions), and allows us weenies to dabble in the meteorological arena with those of you that have significantly more knowledge. Stay the course, George, it's your thread... crossing fingers that something materializes mid-month

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  5. The Euro basically says 12-18 from Brian and Me over to you.  If it comes a little further north then you could reach 24.  It will be fun to come home to, but I will really miss being in the storm.  However, February looks like a pack building month.
    GYX and WCSH6 currently have about half of that, me thinks by morning their forecasts will be upped

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  6. I don't think Henri is going to be a big deal.  Trend is now east.  (I don't look at the NAM for tropical cyclones).   Henri is not being yanked north in front of a late season trough so it will weaken as it approaches.  Unless someone gets into the right quad which is becoming less likely there is not going to be a ton of wind.  Coastal high tides might be the biggest factor.  Still plenty of time for changes but set your expectations low on this one.
    There is no trend right now, previous model runs went west, 12z goes east... we need at least two consecutive runs to define a trend. Posts prior discuss the track sensitivity in the models, I think until we get a defined northerly turn that the models can ingest we are left with significant uncertainty on landfall point.

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  7. Agreed, and the ice went out without needing the CG icebreaker this year.  I mentioned 2/2/76 because southerly winds that day gusted 100+ in Penobscot Bay, pushing water north such that it rose 15' in 15 minutes at BGR, with water 10-12' deep in the Kenduskeag Plaza parking lots.  I've never read how far above MHW that was, but surely more than 10'.  Kennebec's geography would limit such a surge.
    Edit:  59/19 yesterday, only dropped the depth 1" (to 11") thanks to the low start and glacial pack.  This AM was slightly cooler than yesterday's, with a >40° climb upcoming.  Today will make 15 sunny days this month, most ever for March and only one day from the most for any month here.  Let the sap gush.
    https://www.weather.gov/car/BangorHistoricFlood
    https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1087/report.pdf

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