Qaanaaq

I know this should be on banter but: Anything is possible: I was 9, living in Marshall, VA for the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962. ~ 24-30 inches of snow with tremendous drifts. We were walking over fences.https://glenallenweather.com/alink/01articles/greatestsnow.htm

Ground covered, starting to stick on asphalt drive; Just west of the 250 By-Pass Charlottesville

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Fair enough. From my perspective what’s annoying is some seem to focus in on the negative I say. In the last 24 hours I bet I’ve made 10x more positive posts.  And sometimes even within a post I’ll make a positive and a negative point. I’m analyzing all the possible permutations. But then the negative thing I said gets all the attention and it comes off like I cancelled storm when that wasn’t my intent. I intended to point out the NAM was bad and it COULD be right and explained why.  But obviously I suck at communicating that because it turned into “I went off the rails and cancelled the storm”.
 

It doesn’t matter what my intent is if that’s what people take from my posts.  One thing I think that’s at play sometimes is some seem to want certainty and a narrative. I view this as chaos and I’m ok with that. I am open to all the variables and outcomes. I don’t need to pretend to know exactly how it’s going to go. I don’t know. No one does. So people try to read certainty from my embrace of the uncertainty.  
 

The NAM is possible. So is the crazy 10” para gfs. I can see reasons for both. I could see the NAM being a little too aggressive with the warm layer and the heavy rates mixing it out. I can also see an argument for the NAM given this setup and history with this kind of SW flow. I’m open to both possibilities. But I think some want to be told how the bad one isn’t likely and placate their fears and so my embrace of both comes off as an embrace of the fail only. 

I really enjoy your analysis and it is clear that you have an understanding of the models, variables, their weaknesses and limitations.  I 'do" science but not in this field.  As a scientist I'd rather have it "served up cold" that does not include wishful thinking, otherwise, it's get's infected and influenced by an pre-ordained desire of an outcome and, frankly, not "science".  I think you do a great job of reporting how you think it may go, while at the same time separating your desire to see 36 inches of snow and winds of 50 mph from the NE !! Keep it up !

31 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Let the people decide:   Yall want to go full storm mode or keep it casual like this thread with banter in between?  Power to the people!  

Right On !

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Cold chasing precip isn’t our best avenue to a win BUT this pattern is the one that is most common in. If there are multiple waves along the boundary the trailing wave would typically be southeast of the lead wave. We saw that work in a similar pattern a few times in 2014 and 2015. 

A long-time lurker here (and old timer)- thanks everyone !- growing up in VA I recall a number of times of rain to snow in the 60's and early 70's (hasn't happened all that much recently).  Specifically, I recall a Nov 1968 12 inch rain to snow in Sperryville, VA and a February 1972 rain to snow event dropping significant snow (about 15 in) in the Warrenton to Washington, VA region- we had to stop at the "Esso" station in Gainesville and buy chains for our Ford while heading west from Arlington.  

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am being flippant because I think he is going too far with this. Yes we are in a low level drought. And I don't mean to be rude towards farming interests and other areas where it is having an effect. But right now what we're experiencing is part of typical cyclical weather. And it's an effect not a cause when we discuss snow. The Nina pattern among other things is causing both the lack of snow and precipitation.  Droughts are an effect more than a cause. If droughts caused drought then we would never get out of them. Droughts tend to persist as long as the pattern causing them persists and then it ends and so does the drought. So sorry if I came off dismissive but I'm tired of the agendas. Between the global warming and the drought and the government conspiracy and NWP arguments we can't keep anything on topic anymore. 

Gotcha. It seems that I read somewhere that drought/dry conditions can have an effect (albeit, minor) on atmospheric pressure- dryness driving the pressures up - I thought that was interesting and often wonder if minor rain or snow events might slowly lower them, thus breaking the drought. Cause and effect - chicken and the egg - 

anyway, cheers! Here's to the breaking of the snow drought !

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh look a thread where we can talk about drought. Crazy. I think your taking something fairly mundane and blowing it way out of proportion. We're in a drought. We have had many like this in my lifetime and we will have many more. We also have floods. Weather goes through these cycles. It will rain/snow and balance out eventually. We're not to the point where things are dire yet.  That's the take of this false prophet of populist belief. 

It is not mundane to those it affects directly : if you live in a rural area reliant on groundwater, or you are a farmer, or your reservoir has stopped overflowing

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where do you see severe?

Duly noted : abnormally dry - thanks

I am glad you started this thread; we are and have been in a serious drought - the last events might start alleviating things because drought begets drought and rain begets rain/moisture and, we hope, snow.

It is a moderate drought - severe in some sections of Virginia:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Southeast