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miller.b.time

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    Severe Weather 4-4-23 and 4-5-23

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    IND decided to go with a madlibs AFD this afternoon, it appears. I think their glossary links aren’t rendering correctly lol. 
      

    Overnight through Wednesday...

Multiple rounds of  are expected late tonight through the
day Wednesday. Strong  and plentiful  will be present
throughout the day. Strong winds will be present not far off the
surface and will be able to be brought down. Thus, it will come down
to available  and  features created by
.

Believe there are at least a couple of potential scenarios for
Wednesday, similar to previous thoughts...

1) Strong to severe  will persist from the Ozarks into
central Indiana late tonight into early Wednesday morning. After
this, there will be a lull before more  develops along the
cold  by mid afternoon. Severity of the second line will depend
on how much  builds between the two rounds.

2)  from the Ozarks weakens before it arrives here and
dissipates across the area. Additional thunderstorms develop in
 mid morning to early afternoon. This  may be
severe if  is able to build enough. Additional 
then forms along the  later in the afternoon, which may be
severe if  can recover.

In summary, enough ingredients are there so that some severe storms
are . Damaging winds will be the highest threat, but given the
amount of , potential boundaries from previous rounds of
, and at least a low threat of discrete cells, tornadoes
and large  are also certainly possible. Uncertainty is on when
and where the highest severe threat will be.

The aforementioned strong winds mixing down will bring wind gusts up
to 40-45 mph even outside of storms. Odds of widespread areas Wind
Advisory criteria are borderline, but would rather err on side of
caution, especially with some recovery efforts ongoing from last
Friday`s tornadoes. Will go with a Wind Advisory from 12Z-00Z.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s, even with clouds and rounds
of storms.
    • Haha 1

    March 31st Severe Threat

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted 

    The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Crawford County in east central Illinois...
  Southeastern Jasper County in southeastern Illinois...

* Until 930 PM CDT.

* At 858 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
  over Ste. Marie, or 10 miles east of Newton, moving northeast at
  60 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
  Hardinville around 905 PM CDT.
  Robinson, New Hebron and Eaton around 910 PM CDT.
  Palestine and Hutsonville around 915 PM CDT.

    March 31st Severe Threat

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted 

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 98
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   700 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     East-central and southeastern Illinois
     Western and central Indiana
     Western and central Kentucky
     Extreme southwestern Lower Michigan
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 700 PM
     until 200 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Several clusters and lines of severe thunderstorms will
   sweep across the watch area through the evening, offering the full
   spectrum of severe hazards: tornadoes (a few strong), severe
   non-tornadic thunderstorm winds, and sporadic large hail.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 20 miles east of Fort Campbell KY to 10
   miles northwest of Lafayette IN. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...WW 94...WW 95...WW
   96...WW 97...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 24045.

   ...Edwards

    Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Latest from IND: 

    .Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 543 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

Baroclinic zone continues to drift south this evening, currently
stretching from near Terre Haute northeast through Indy Metro to
Muncie, where temperatures continue to fall with the robust
northerly flow ushering in sinking cold air to the surface. The area
of 850mb frontogenetical forcing continues to be parked across
Northeast Missouri stretching northeast through Illinois into
Indiana. Last few hours this zone of FGEN hasnt moved much, and
current hi-res guidance continues to favor this stubborn movement
through this evening.

Precipitation footprint continues to be expansive across Central
Indiana, associated with the aforementioned FGEN zone is an area of
800-750 EPV lifting north along southern periphery, which will ride
along the isentropic surfaces and continue to create the unstable
layer. This should continue the precipitation footprint overnight,
but with thermal profiles steadily cooling expect the partially
melted hydrometeors stretched over the Avon/Brownsburg to switch
over to all dendritic form. Parcels will continue to be pushed
vertically through the dendritic growth zone and enhance the
snowfall rates through the evening hours from north to south.

This further complicates the evening commute home, likely causing a
longer commute for those that are encountering the sleet/snow
mixture. WIth the elevated instability causing the increased rates,
this should lead to some aggregation of dendrites from some marginal
warmth and further reduce visibilities. But expect with additional
loss of heat in the low-levels of atmosphere this will lead to drier
dendrites and thus begin to increase the SLR values.

    Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

    Think we finally flipped to SN for the foreseeable future hopefully.  Waiting on that transition hurt as bad as stubbing your toe after getting up for a 3am pisser.:tomato:

    I’ve already started smoking a cigar in anticipation of the changeover here. When that happens, then it’s time for drinks. 

    • Haha 1

    February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Latest IND mesoscale update:

    Quote 
    
.NEAR TERM /619 PM EST MESOSCALE UPDATE/...

Expansive area of moderate to heavy snowfall continues across central
Indiana early this evening. Winds have steadily increased across the region
with a progressively tighter surface pressure gradient as low pressure tracks
into eastern Tennessee and the presence of stronger boundary layer winds
aloft. Beginning to see gusts routinely exceed 30mph since about
21Z and expect that to persist into the evening.

Forecast remains on point going into the evening and while snowfall has been
very heavy already late this afternoon...several factors point to the most
intense rates still set to come...likely in the 00-04Z timeframe.

May see a very brief lull through about 00Z in some areas where snow rates
relax ever so slightly. However...another surge of lift and a progressively
deeper plume of moisture advecting into the region will match up with
excellent mid and upper level diffluence over the Ohio Valley to enable
heavier snowfall rates to reestablish across the forecast area for a good
portion of the evening. Hints of a TROWAL feature lifting northeast across
the southeast half of the region over the next 3-4 hours will aid in an
intense burst of low level lift to run in tandem with the deformation axis
which is set to align just northwest of the path of the 850mb low. At this
point...that is likely to set up in a SW to NE direction bisecting the
forecast area in the vicinity of a Bloomington-Indy Metro-Muncie line.
This is where the most intense snowfall this evening should set up with
1-2 inch/hour rates easily being met for about a 3-4 hour window through 03-
04Z. Sweetening the pot is a piece of the low level jet getting pulled up
and around the top of the 850mb low...and aligning directly back into the
forecast area from the northeast for a couple hours this evening. This will
only enhance snowfall rates further.

There remains a component focused on conditional instability as well with
higher PWAT air advecting into the southeast half of the region over the
next few hours and interacting with the strong low level lift. Satellite
imagery earlier in the afternoon was hinting at cloud congestion and weak but
notable instability in play. Would not rule out a couple rumbles
of thunder and lightning strikes in the vicinity of the most
intense bands into the evening. The DGZ remains robust through the
evening which also supports the continued threat for big
dendrites within the heaviest bands and potential for accentuation
of snow ratios above the 12 to 15-1 we have been seeing up to
this point. At the same time...the colder air will be drawn in
from the northwest as the surface wave passes through the eastern
Tennessee Valley and should naturally bump up snow ratios through
the evening in addition to the boost from any intense lift in the
vicinity of the deformation axis. At a minimum...expect these
higher ratio potential to coincide with the heavier snow fall for
at least a few hours.

So taking all of the above into account...several hours of accumulating snow
remain for central Indiana. It appears that the 00-04Z timeframe will be
the storm sweet spot for the forecast area for the heaviest and most
efficient snowfall. An additional 4-8 inches above and beyond what has
already fallen looks likely considering above thoughts with
potential for locally higher amounts where mesoscale banding sets
up in the vicinity of the deformation axis. Wind gusts routinely
around 30mph will maintain significant blowing and drifting of
snow through the evening and even well through the overnight once
snow has diminished.

     

    • Like 3

    February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, BigHoss said:

    Talk me out of this busting HARD in IND

    IND still seems very much to think that this is on track to verify as expected. We're not in the true heart of the event yet, which should begin in a couple of hours, if I'm not mistaken.

    The 3:30 disco from IND is worth a read to put your mind at ease:
     

    Quote 
    
.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

Satellite imagery continues to blossom over the Ohio Valley this afternoon, with water vapor
indicating growing depth of atmospheric moisture. Visible satellite imagery indicates some
convective layers across Western TN/KY, which is all steadily advecting north and expected
to move across Central/Southern Indiana later this evening. Precipitable water at the sfc
is also on the rise, with values ranging from .4 inches across the north to .6 inches across
Southern Indiana. Radar reflectivity across the area continues to be on the rise in volume
and intensity this afternoon. The next line of stronger snowfall is approaching Crawfordsville
to Edinburgh to Rushville line. This area was steadily lifting north and expected to be in
the Indy metro area by 4pm.

Vertical lift in the lower levels will be robust this evening as well, which should aid
in dendrite size growth and volume as the greater snowfall rates increase. Further compounding
the complexity to the atmosphere is the layer of anomalous warm/moist air steadily advecting
north, eluded to in the prior discussion in regards to the precipitable water.

Thermal profiles indicate that dendrite size should increase marginally over the
next few hours, coupled with the deeper moisture aloft. Unfortunately pressure change
will become mixed to the surface, pushing gusts to between 20-30 mph, further exacerbating
conditions bringing visibilities down to less than 1 mile frequently, due to the fine
dendrite size. Cant rule out whiteout conditions periodically this evening as well.

The main concern for this evening will be on the precise path of the 850mb low.
Typically in more robust winter storms this indicates the location of the deformation
axis, which is also the location of the heaviest snowfall due to the forcing and supportive
atmospheric conditions. Timing for this feature still progged to be in the early/mid
evening timeframe across Central Indiana.

     

    • Like 1
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