Deep Creek

Still mostly sleet here, but starting to see some glaze accretion on mailboxes and shrubs.

Hopefully we’ve dodged the bullet with the worst case ZR amounts. Just went outside here in N Chesterfield and it’s still sleet. Temp at 19. That slug of moisture to the west is somewhat worrisome with temps only getting to the mid 20s if it is indeed ZR by then.

I’m sure that’s probably in jest, but don’t. Keep at it. This world needs more passionate people!

Yep. I can hear the pinging outside the window. Not even gonna get out of bed to see what’s going on. At least you got some accumulation! I checked the 511 cam near Brandermill just to get an idea and it looks paltry.

Flurries here as well

Same for RIC. Forecast was 24, and currently sitting at 20/-3.

Ha, yea. I’m showing 20/-3 here in North Chesterfield. NGL, while I’m nervous about the freezing rain potential tomorrow, I’m kinda excited about not really knowing how tomorrow will play out and just seeing what falls…

Being burned so many times in the past, I’m thinking 2-4” snow before we change over to sleet and then freezing rain.

Wakefield’s map is probably more realistic, although I still think it’s overdone for metro Richmond

lol, definitely a study! Makes you really appreciate the good storms we’ve had. Like 12/8/18. Looked to stay south of us up until about 24-36 hours before go time and then we got a foot easy. One of the nicest, cleanest surprises. Otherwise, here it’s just “here we go again”.

Just saw the long range maps posted. Ughhh can we not be in the jackpot more than a week out lol.

While the GFS has been consistent, I recall a storm we got last Jan or Feb (pretty sure it was Feb but can’t get locate the screen shots) where for like 12 or 14 straight runs it showed the heaviest band over us and then come game time…poof it went well north and we got 1-3” in Richmond metro. Anything is possible and other models being close is good and all, but in these types of setups it’s best to rely on our weather history and err on the side of mixing issues.

Does it? Asking seriously because the snow and qpf map just posted wouldn’t indicate that. RIC at about 17” of snow at 1.35” qpf…where in the world is any qpf left for ice? edited to say that does the snow map include sleet? Just seems like it would be way overstating snow if there was significant ice as well.

This. While I’m trying not to hyperventilate over the insane snow totals being shown, I think it’s worth remembering that in Central VA, with a storm track moving to the OBX, sleet is a real possibility here. As you said, its happened repeatedly. While I’d love to stay all snow, I’m curious if the short range models start to pick that up better as we get closer to Saturday.

Absolutely! Staying cautiously optimistic, but that would be fantastic if any of those threats came to fruition.