crownweather

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm kind of hoping a brief EF-0 tornado touches down in my backyard within the line and sucks up all the dog poop and takes it to the nearby woods. It's like walking through a landmine. Need warm weather so I can clean it. 

Well, there was at least one reported tornado late last night in lower Michigan.  So..........

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Was that early 2000's? I thought that was earlier...like in the late 90's. 

I remember though TWC and I think even local news being extremely concerned up this way. I remember TWC having the bulletins that went from top of screen down as opposed to the scroll at the bottom. That's how you knew it was some serious ****  

Edouard was at the very beginning of September, 1996.  

Just installed the bedroom AC on Saturday.  Tried to hold off until June 1, but the house just holds onto the warmth so it's tough to get indoor temps to drop much at night, even when temps are in the 40s for lows.  

12/6/2

29 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Joe Bastardi's WXBell numbers quoted below and another forecast linked that mentions 2017.  JB's ACE forecast gives him pretty wide latitude.  70-110 is probably right.

Bastardi sees an above average threat Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  This forecast JB linked (below) has references 2017, (5 majors) although the caveat it may not be as damaging as 2017, more 'fish' storms.  https://www.nextgov.com/ideas/2023/05/forecasters-2023-will-be-very-active-hurricane-season/385916/

When hasn't JB put the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in an above average threat area??  Of course, a broken clock is right twice a day. 
 

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You wonder if Stevie Wonder was at the desk 

It makes the snow map I created look like something else for sure.  Went with 10-15” south of ORH and 15-20” ORH to Route 2 .  CT River Valley may get shadowed and see 5-10”.  

Scratching my head at this tweet.  Hmmm.... 
 

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't be surprised if he had a warm bias...the guy hates winter.

I hope that isn't what our generation of mets is like in this cancel culture we are in.....makes we want to violently vomit.

Not sure why he moved back to Boston after being in Atlanta, if he hates winter so much.  Sigh. 

CIPS analog hints at an "Ice, Ice Baby" scenario with the storm New Year's weekend.  Anyone know how significant the freezing rain event was for around December 17-18 or so of 2008 - which would have been a week after the very significant ice storm on December 11, 2008.  

 

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The comments are funny. Someone commented and said how they remember big storms growing up in the 40s blah blah blah. I’m like you had one good year in a sea of mediocrity.

Yep.  For sure.  Granted the records are from Worcester but the 1940s were definitely a mixed bag of winters - some really horrible like 1941-42, 1943-44 & 1946-47, but others did really well (looking at you 1947-48).  

 

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is just another problem right here. There is just a constant barrage of social media posts that are nothing more than "what if's" and all it does is lead to immense hype and hope. What drives me absolutely nuts is the posts that state, "This is unlikely to happen but if it did...." WHY THE **** EVEN POST IT THEN?  There is absolutely zero benefit or reason to post it...well with the exception of clicking profiles, likes, and new followers. 

How many times do we continue to see signals of any extreme in the long-range back off? Literally happens every single time. These freaking posts of one day "cancelling winter" to "winter is back" on a daily basis is nothing but an emotionally draining, giving people wrong idea, sense of crap. 

Then there always has to be a justification as to "why it's possible". Anyone can throw up a map of anything...anything and come up with some outlandish reason as to why some solution is possible. Could post a SLP map of the low pressure going through the Pains Wednesday which is going to be quite intense and say, "Ohhh if this system had more moisture there would be a major blizzard NW of the low" or "if moisture return was much stronger in the warm sector there would be a severe outbreak". "If that low tracked 700 miles east we would get snow". You don't post that what if crap b/c it's BULLSHIT 

I wish I could thank this post many times over.  What a great post and it's all true!!  Sadly, weather posts on Twitter and Facebook are such that, as you said, there's only a model map with no context.  That gets shared a shit ton of times and thus it becomes a "forecast" that in all likelihood never verifies.  What happens in the end is that the "public" ends up coming away thinking that it's another bust of a forecast and the meteorologist is wrong again - even though you and I and many others NEVER forecasted that to happen.  

Sometimes, I feel like the grumpy old man when I say to myself, It was better when all we had were difax printouts once or twice a day.  You actually had to forecast the weather and not just regurgitate a really pretty model map.  

Again, great post!!  

 

15/8/3

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

So suppression depression this year, Galveston 1900 repeat next year. Got it. 

1900 was actually a VERY quiet hurricane season in terms of numbers (7 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major).  In fact, the Galveston Hurricane was the 1st storm of the season!  

1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

fortunately for him, it was pretty weak (judging by the fact that he survived in the video).

But now we're going to have others trying to intercept on foot. The reason will be, "If Reed did it, I can too." sigh. 

4 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

Reed Timmer intercepted one of the Nebraska tornadoes on foot earlier. That's right, he walked into a tornado - or rather, the tornado came down on top of him and he didn't run away. Video is on his twitter feed. The mans crazy, but you have to give him props. 

Give him props for what?? Being an idiot? Sure, I'll give him props for that. This is why storm chasing has such a stigma attached to it. You can storm chase without being an idiot or being a hazard to yourself and others. 

I know the CIPS Analogs should be taken with a "grain of salt", but some impressive analog dates for Sun night-Mon.  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F048&rundt=2019021600  .  Thoughts?? 

4.4 Inches here in Indian Orchard. 11.3 inches so far this month & 19.8 inches of snow so far this season. 

On the cusp between 44 and 45.  I will be 45 in August. 

14/7/3

May 1/0/0

June 1/0/0

July 3/2/1

August 3/2/1

September 4/2/1

October 2/1/0

November 0/0/0

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Screw zone here hope those two bands merge over here

I'm sitting in the screw zone right along with you.