crownweather

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

I will stay loyal to the church of saint Lezak and Fradella

here's 2023 for example (was 20/7/3)

 

crown:

 

saint lezak:

Keep writing essays bro!

Interesting and telling that you picked & chose what parts of my forecast.  The entire map from 2023's hurricane season forecast from myself called for a very high risk of a landfall for exactly where Idalia made landfall.  Also very high threat for a impact for E North Carolina right where TS Ophelia made landfall.

I'd love to see where LRC forecast their landfalls for 2023 and compare them to mine.      

So, to answer your question - yes, I'll certainly keep "writing essays bro", just like I have since the early 1990s.    

Now, you're going on my ignore/block list as I don't have the oxygen to deal with your cult like obsession with LRC. 

My 2023 forecast:



The actual tracks for the 2023 hurricane season: 

8 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

lezak > mainstream forecasters

keep that noise down or I'll get bradford city council on you

 

Wow and that's why I'm really glad there's a ignore member feature on this forum.  You've now been placed on my ignore list. 

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m sorry but this is crap. No one can predict landfall locations more then a week out better then climatology. Even with AI. 

Agreed.  It's complete crap.  None of the dates listed so far have verified in terms of activity.  The dates leading up to the 4th is when we had Chantal, which occurred in the Carolinas, not the TX/LA coasts. 

Also, there is NO peer reviewed papers (or any papers at all) on how Lezak comes up with this numbers.  If you ask him (I have), he either brushes you off or blocks you.    

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Wasn’t he the guy who said Michael was really a cat 2?

Yeah, I can't even with this guy. 

I actually called him out when he pulled that crap with Michael. He was disregarding recon, the look of the hurricane on satellite & other data & was only using RTMA obs.  It was actually  becoming an issue when it came to trying to warn those in the path of a Category 5 hurricane.  He ended up quitting Twitter after that.   

Now here's the rub, he said he wasn't going to do that kind of stuff when he came back as ContentWeather.  And here we are, him pulling the same smoke & mirrors.  

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 I love their young core...but ownership and management needs to stop getting in their owm way, and need to start adding as opposed to just switching out pieces.

Cora needs to go.

Cora needs to go (what dirt does he have on ownership that they're keeping him around).  Also, Breslow needs to go.  

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Crap had a spider crawling on my leg. This is why I hate shorts...they expose skin. I felt something on my leg and thought it was one of those weird looking flying white things so I slapped it off and then saw it starting to crawl and it was a spider. 

The older I get the less I like Summer (I will be 51 in August).  Heat, humidity, tourist traffic, bugs & crazy high energy bills due to trying to stay cool.  In my younger days, I loved all things summer - now, I could do without it.   

Fall is actually my favorite season & now winter is a close second.    

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think the HRRR is underplaying aerial coverage tomorrow

Agreed.  I've noticed over the last couple of months or so that the meso models have under forecast strong/severe thunderstorm events for Southern New England.  Models then start playing catch-up about 12 hours before the event start & continue playing catch-up right up to game time. 
 

On 3/18/2025 at 1:48 PM, BarryStantonGBP said:

What analog years(s) may be the best for the upcomming season based on what we know so far about the different factors?

 

For the hurricane season that I released last Thursday, I went with the following analog years - 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 and 2021.  

I do think that we may be looking at a East Coast heavy season in terms of threats and potential impacts.  The NE Caribbean is another concern of mine as is the central Gulf Coast.  

Link to my season forecast - https://crownweather.com/tropical-weather/2025-hurricane-season-forecast/ 

2 hours ago, TalcottWx said:

No one cares about the one outside of mass, so you can just assume it's that one. 

I don't know about that.  I've driven Route 2 from Newport, Maine to Berlin, New Hampshire several times.  It's quite scenic and you see parts of both Maine and New Hampshire you don't see on other roads like the Maine Turnpike, Route 16 or I-93.    

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes sir..another over performer.  2.5” this morning.(Girlfriend says 3” when she went to work at 6:45..but I’ll stay with the 2.5” lol).  5.5” on the month/season…not to shabby so far.  

Ended up with about 0.2 inch of snow with the system early this morning here in Sturbridge.  Brings me to 9.3 inches of snow for the month & season.  Pretty decent start to the season & MUCH better than the last several years.  

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Euro snows on us Boxing Day.  But in the less clowny range, I kind of like where we stand right now on the models for next weekend.  Let's see what happens when the lead wave hits NOAM today and tonight.

A 2010 Boxing Day snowstorm redux would be nice.  Still remember seeing the model guidance on that Christmas Day of what was about to come.  Definitely a nice Christmas present that year!! 

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm kind of hoping a brief EF-0 tornado touches down in my backyard within the line and sucks up all the dog poop and takes it to the nearby woods. It's like walking through a landmine. Need warm weather so I can clean it. 

Well, there was at least one reported tornado late last night in lower Michigan.  So..........

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Was that early 2000's? I thought that was earlier...like in the late 90's. 

I remember though TWC and I think even local news being extremely concerned up this way. I remember TWC having the bulletins that went from top of screen down as opposed to the scroll at the bottom. That's how you knew it was some serious ****  

Edouard was at the very beginning of September, 1996.  

Just installed the bedroom AC on Saturday.  Tried to hold off until June 1, but the house just holds onto the warmth so it's tough to get indoor temps to drop much at night, even when temps are in the 40s for lows.  

12/6/2

29 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Joe Bastardi's WXBell numbers quoted below and another forecast linked that mentions 2017.  JB's ACE forecast gives him pretty wide latitude.  70-110 is probably right.

Bastardi sees an above average threat Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  This forecast JB linked (below) has references 2017, (5 majors) although the caveat it may not be as damaging as 2017, more 'fish' storms.  https://www.nextgov.com/ideas/2023/05/forecasters-2023-will-be-very-active-hurricane-season/385916/

When hasn't JB put the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in an above average threat area??  Of course, a broken clock is right twice a day. 
 

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You wonder if Stevie Wonder was at the desk 

It makes the snow map I created look like something else for sure.  Went with 10-15” south of ORH and 15-20” ORH to Route 2 .  CT River Valley may get shadowed and see 5-10”.  

Scratching my head at this tweet.  Hmmm.... 
 

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't be surprised if he had a warm bias...the guy hates winter.

I hope that isn't what our generation of mets is like in this cancel culture we are in.....makes we want to violently vomit.

Not sure why he moved back to Boston after being in Atlanta, if he hates winter so much.  Sigh. 

CIPS analog hints at an "Ice, Ice Baby" scenario with the storm New Year's weekend.  Anyone know how significant the freezing rain event was for around December 17-18 or so of 2008 - which would have been a week after the very significant ice storm on December 11, 2008.  

 

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The comments are funny. Someone commented and said how they remember big storms growing up in the 40s blah blah blah. I’m like you had one good year in a sea of mediocrity.

Yep.  For sure.  Granted the records are from Worcester but the 1940s were definitely a mixed bag of winters - some really horrible like 1941-42, 1943-44 & 1946-47, but others did really well (looking at you 1947-48).  

 

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is just another problem right here. There is just a constant barrage of social media posts that are nothing more than "what if's" and all it does is lead to immense hype and hope. What drives me absolutely nuts is the posts that state, "This is unlikely to happen but if it did...." WHY THE **** EVEN POST IT THEN?  There is absolutely zero benefit or reason to post it...well with the exception of clicking profiles, likes, and new followers. 

How many times do we continue to see signals of any extreme in the long-range back off? Literally happens every single time. These freaking posts of one day "cancelling winter" to "winter is back" on a daily basis is nothing but an emotionally draining, giving people wrong idea, sense of crap. 

Then there always has to be a justification as to "why it's possible". Anyone can throw up a map of anything...anything and come up with some outlandish reason as to why some solution is possible. Could post a SLP map of the low pressure going through the Pains Wednesday which is going to be quite intense and say, "Ohhh if this system had more moisture there would be a major blizzard NW of the low" or "if moisture return was much stronger in the warm sector there would be a severe outbreak". "If that low tracked 700 miles east we would get snow". You don't post that what if crap b/c it's BULLSHIT 

I wish I could thank this post many times over.  What a great post and it's all true!!  Sadly, weather posts on Twitter and Facebook are such that, as you said, there's only a model map with no context.  That gets shared a shit ton of times and thus it becomes a "forecast" that in all likelihood never verifies.  What happens in the end is that the "public" ends up coming away thinking that it's another bust of a forecast and the meteorologist is wrong again - even though you and I and many others NEVER forecasted that to happen.  

Sometimes, I feel like the grumpy old man when I say to myself, It was better when all we had were difax printouts once or twice a day.  You actually had to forecast the weather and not just regurgitate a really pretty model map.  

Again, great post!!  

 

15/8/3

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

So suppression depression this year, Galveston 1900 repeat next year. Got it. 

1900 was actually a VERY quiet hurricane season in terms of numbers (7 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major).  In fact, the Galveston Hurricane was the 1st storm of the season!  

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Screw zone here hope those two bands merge over here

I'm sitting in the screw zone right along with you.