Leelee

It's hard for me to lock in with those 2'+ totals over N Indiana and Ohio. This would be the biggest daily snow in Fort Wayne by nearly double.

5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

It takes very specific and unusual conditions as you know. Difficult to predict 24 hours out. 
it’s a cutter anyway. They rarely come  SE at this time frame. My bet? Warm rain like the models have had for weeks. 

Same. That's how I remember cutters always going when I posting more years ago. People get hyped for cutters, models usually too far SE. Maybe models are better now, though.

45 minutes ago, WNash said:

Buffalo is only slightly above its 30 year seasonal snowfall mean. Our brains have been so warped by these extreme snowfall deficits that we think Buffalo has been getting buried. In actuality, this is one great month in a great desert of crappy winters. I'm not complaining -- the last 3  1/2 weeks have been awesome -- but I don't see how Buffalo is going to get the 2.5 to 3 feet needed just to finish at the seasonal average. 

KBUF snow total is kinda fluky too since the airport was in the sweet spot for a couple LES events, which is unusual. North of the city where I am, we're below average and I assume the southtowns are well below normal.

0z Euro is backing off on the thaw next Thursday with a potential snow storm too closer to GFS. Something to watch now, at least.

I'm not seeing anything in models and wind maps that suggest any of these storms at least the next week or so preventing waves going anywhere but east and out to sea. But this has been an unusual winter. 

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Couldn’t help but notice the clipper pattern for next week is all over the place. The 0z; 6z and 12z are all very different for next Tuesday in regards to placement of the clipper. What concerns me is it shifting north of us again like thus mornings LP and we get into this 3 days of dry Arctic and one day of upper 30’s and mix precip.

12z GFS shows the biggest clipper on the 26th doing that now with another brief thaw like today. The positive is models still aren't showing much signs of a huge warmup like most seem to think will happen in February-April yet. 

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A few minutes driving around the city today, roads were terrible! Buffalo schools are closed again tomorrow.

 

I grew up on the Buffalo/West Seneca border and the difference in snow maintenance is night and day once you hit the city line. It's why I usually root for snow to stay in the suburbs. It sucks for those people, especially in like the really narrow streets of South Buffalo.

8 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I'm waiting for BUF to get excited about it. Definitely has potential to be the bigger synoptic storm in quite some time.

KBUF and every TV met here is like "nor'easter, maybe a heavy snow, we might get brushed by it". Even the usual big hype ones like Cejka are like whatever so far. Weird for a synoptic storm with this potential.

43 minutes ago, WNash said:

We’re at about 16” in the University District, making a run at 2 feet if the band continues to barely move south. I moved to WNY in October 2012 (at the same time Sandy was hitting the east coast). In my time here, I have only lived in 14214, and this is the best storm for the northern part of the city in that almost 10 year span. Really hoping for 2’.

Remarkable difference from your 16" and the around 3" UB North got. 

I can't recall a Lake Effect event where the city proper, North to South Buffalo, was the jackpot like this one. Usually your location is just north of the good stuff.

23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Added a 18-24" stripe across the airport and just south

I'm by the 990 and even if the current band sat right here through Midnight, we wouldn't reach a foot. NWS and their clown maps sometimes...

Finally getting into this now in Getzville. As usual, for bands to get this far north, it requires a passing shortwave or quickly moving at the start/end of an event. It won't last long, but better than nothing. 

The truest snow weenie will live in the Tug Hill forest like the North Pond Hermit. Or on one of those Sierra or Cascade mountains that gets like 1000" of snow per year. 

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

50 degrees and sunny here today, did a 3 mile run felt amazing. I'm all aboard the spring train unless its a big LES event or synoptic storm. 12"+

Same, I got to do a nice long jog for the first time in a long time. Now to get the annoying remaining ice/slush off the park paths here in the northtowns... it will probably be another week.

4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Anyone get the vaccine yet? 

I got my 2nd shot a week ago. Only got it early because I live in disabled housing. Other than some discomfort in your arm for a day, it's nothing.

6-7" in Getzville this morning. More than I thought there would be after hearing the sleet pelting my window in the early morning hours.

Hopefully Thursday night at least hits as an advisory for WNY before the gradual melt starts next week. 

I live a couple miles north of UB North, it was noticeably deeper just a few miles south of here by like Williamsville SEward. Still got like 4-6" here overall though, better than I thought West Amherst would get. It's died down the last half hour despite radar still showing decent returns.

The first ~60 degree day in March always has a special feeling. A little dampened this year since this winter had many mild days, but it was still beautiful and enjoyable. And that there's looking to be at least a handful of them coming later in the month.

School closings are always tough. In the city, and in Amherst here, we got roughly 2" and blowing snow is not an issue. I drove up to Lockport/Newfane area, and it quickly looks like 6+" and the open roads there are not a fun experience when gusts kick up. I'm always on the side of safety and giving kids off.

I'll be shocked if Buffalo gets 3" tonight/tomorrow at this point. The radar is like 50 miles west with the rain/snow line than what the NAM projected at this time. It's reported rain in Beamsville.

Storm looks a fair amount NW of where latest model runs were suggesting. Grand Rapids was like the projected line where snow cut off, and they're getting a few inches. That may be a bad sign for Buffalo snow.

GFS bugged netcode dood, nothing it could do.

If GFS is right, it was on this for over a week. And soundly defeated NWS mets. I'm rooting hard for it to happen.

5 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Isn't that drag queen...

I honestly forgot about the leather chaps saga.

4 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oh my word. At this point, I would rather stay in Florida until Spring than keep dealing with this muck up of a winter.

Mid 50s with 30 mph gusts here today. Actually feels pretty cold after days of mid 80s! The hoodies and winter coats are out all over.

I'm watching tennis from Delray Beach and the crowd are more bundled up than anyone I've seen all year. Chicken wusses.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

https://wyrk.com/heavy-snow-likely-for-wny-next-week-localized-lake-effect-too/?fbclid=IwAR0kDG_k43y4gJYG72u__oONlbkdCctBcAvYMWSI4D2_UebwdN86H4j0ttU

Yeah, but it's Cejka who's always been a hype queen. I miss Don Paul.

22 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

No point in getting your hopes up this far out... GFS has put that storm anywhere from Chicago to off the Maine coast today.  $5 the 0z has it cutting up through Michigan.  

I know. Long-range models show this storm track over the Appalachians many times and it happens like 1 in 100. My guess is it goes well east as this looks like some kind of Miller B.

I thought some Buffalo people would be going crazy looking at the 18z GFS. A foot in 6 hours, book it.