AccuChris

12z GFS full cycle kuchera snowmap .

Here is the latest AFD from Mt Holly NWS for perspective…talk about making changes on the fly. Bottom line…the NAM suite handled the warm nose intrusion so far north and east best. Typically, models under estimate mid-level warming but are too quick to warm the surface. Keep the NAM scorecard in your back pocket for future systems this winter, especially when it comes to p-type issues, it usually does well, even if an outlier .

Just had thunder/lightning in heavy sleet right now in Lebanon .

This grill is my work horse year-round! Love it! .

Ongoing mix of sleet and freezing rain in Lebanon. Temp down to 28 .

Sleet has commenced here in Lebanon. Temp is 29 but DP is 12 so wetbulbing will definitely drop the temp some .

Too soon to tell. This is one run of one model but will need to see what the rest of the 0z suite shows .

0z 3km NAM QPF is pretty paltry .

0z NAM was very weak and much farther north… .

Significant ZR is confined to mostly western PA per the latest NAM .

18z 12km NAM really limits snowfall in all of PA but keeps it a sleet-fest .

12z RGEM follows the NAM showing the snow staying to the northeast part of the state but mostly a sleet storm for central PA .

Only in western/southwestern parts of the state .

12z 12km NAM has no snow for many but a pure sleet-fest. Impressive with temps in the mid-20s .

18z GFS kuchera snow and sleet for Friday .